Market Talk

[Guest]

imported post

MarketTimer wrote:

Two cents at a time. Are you a rapper? Two cents or no sense?

I left here around 6 October (oh yeah I called that down turn - when you were 100% invested).

Asia and Europe closed strongly on the Intel "news".

Anyone with half a brain would be in the I or S fund today.

I guess you are doing the best you can with the two cent bargain brainplan.

Great system. YOU WILL be in the second worse gaining fund today.







mlk_man wrote:

Yepper, F fund is looking really crappy today MT......................

Obviously you need to go back to the horsepital.........I am 100% S today, guess he'll slam that fund now..................My transfer is effective at COB today.......

Which I was F fund today.........

I feel compelled to post this past thread since he's back........draw your own conclusions.........

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum22/461.html

Good luck,

M_M

 

[Guest]

imported post

eukrate wrote:

You should get off his back milkman. Diverse opinions are useful factors in making an overall assessment. And, you're getting personal again..

BTW sir, if you read other threads then you would know he came back and attacked me right away. Get the facts before you open your mouth I always say............

He must of realized he was screwing up about me being in F fund so he left to go..............who knows................................

 

[Wheels]

imported post

Hey M/M, ease up on Eukrate. I understand your frustration, however Eukrate didn't disagree with anything substantive that you've posted. I stopped posting on this board a long time ago because it seemed like the stubborn, bullshitting fools were beginning to dominate it (I'll refrain from naming them as it is just my opinion). However Eukrate was posting valuable, useful information LONG before you and many others were members here. I believe he stopped posting for the same reasons I did. My advice would be to continue to post your relative info, ignore your detractors and they will likely go away. My 2 cents. Over and Out.

Dave

 

[Guest]

imported post

Wheels wrote:

Hey M/M, ease up on Eukrate. I understand your frustration, however Eukrate didn't disagree with anything substantive that you've posted. I stopped posting on this board a long time ago because it seemed like the stubborn, bullshitting fools were beginning to dominate it (I'll refrain from naming them as it is just my opinion). However Eukrate was posting valuable, useful information LONG before you and many others were members here. I believe he stopped posting for the same reasons I did. My advice would be to continue to post your relative info, ignore your detractors and they will likely go away. My 2 cents. Over and Out.

Dave

Yes sir..................sorry eukrate, luv ya man.....................

 

[learning]

imported post

Tom- Thanks for this sight. I was one of those gun shy people. I took a hit in the market and my risk tolerance went way down. I have been Watching and Learning. I have become a little more aggresive in my accounts and have done well, (for me). I have not watched percentages just the final dollar figure. That is what it all comes down to when we retire.

To others, hey pick at me yell at me. I only post when I see something that I think you all should think about. I give a quick little blurb and let it die there. I said Santa Clause Ralley and that was a little while before November. It will run through December for the most part. I like the market, until around April. I may jump sooner. I need to be more agressive, (I'm a whimp).

When you get into a fight on the message board you may scare new people away from this sight and they are the ones you will hurt. Not the person you attack. They proably do not care. I want to hear all ideas and if I do not understand I will ask. Feel free to do that with me.

Santa Clause Ralley- This is a term that I heard last year when I started to do my research. I got in around November and did well. (Around this time I found this sight.) The ralley as I understand it happens as Christmas approaches. People get into the buying spirit. They see money changing hands in the stores and get excited about the market. We have people that jump into the market around the first of Novemeber and out around the first of April. New money in the market drives it up and when it leaves the market may takes a hit. I do not know about this as I only caught a little about it from one little news segment. I am hopping that it works for me, again. It has done good so far. Other factors are part of this to be sure. Like oil is helping not hurting for a change. ABOUT TIME.:u

Now, pick at this. Be personal if you must,(just hope you do not scare others out of this sight that are new). You can not hurt my feelings and I am a slow learner. But, I am doingbetter then I would have otherwise.:!

 

[Guest]

imported post

Learning,

I'm new and learning too. Don't be too worried about the trash talking. I think they all love each other, hence the passionate rhetoric. As you mentioned, May the good Bishop Nikolas (Santa Claus) speedto us aDecember blessing. You know, gold coins in our stalkings. Consensus seems to agree that we have some coming our way.

 

[smedlap]

imported post

Chaplain, your moving about fast. Welcome to another site. Chaplain - not gold! please - how about I coin platinum!:^

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

learning wrote:

When you get into a fight on the message board you may scare new people away from this sight and they are the ones you will hurt. Not the person you attack. They proably do not care. I want to hear all ideas and if I do not understand I will ask. Feel free to do that with me.

Agree. I am just going to delete the bashing posts! No need for it.

Say something positive, interesting, thought provoking, funny,share your ideas or tell us why you disagree with others, butthe bashing and negative attacks have got to stop. I don't mind you calling someone on something, but please do it constructively.

Thanks,
Tom

 

[Mike]

imported post

The dollar fell to a new low again today - down ~1.4% against the Euro and about 1% against other currencies. This should propel the I-fund up a considerable amount on Monday, even if the EAFE is relatively flat.

 

[coolhand]

imported post

Mike wrote:

The dollar fell to a new low again today - down ~1.4% against the Euro and about 1% against other currencies. This should propel the I-fund up a considerable amount on Monday, even if the EAFE is relatively flat.

That's what I'mhoping :^! But the inherent risk in this fund goes higher as the dollar goes lower.

Watch carefully!

 

[Guest]

imported post

I'm still hedging with the I fund...like 40% I....40% S...and 20% C.......feeling a wee bit exposed...but on I'm on this hoss for a while. Any body still 100% I?

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Mike wrote:

The dollar fell to a new low again today - down ~1.4% against the Euro and about 1% against other currencies. This should propel the I-fund up a considerable amount on Monday, even if the EAFE is relatively flat.

Curious, why do you think it will effect Monday and not already factored in today (Friday)?

Thanks

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Retire rich..... If I was 100% I - Fund I wouldn't be able to sleep at nights! My opinion is that in a bull market you should select stocks of good performance, diversify proportionally and shed stocks that are not performing. C-S-I have been good stocks, but the I - Fund has a two fold risk. It needs to be watched carefully!

Tom.....Please delete the unwanted posts. I was trying to work today and also check with you guys, and those posts got me totally discombobulated (if thats a word). And I will speek up for new members. It makes them:x.

Rgds Spaf

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Last Week

Ending Nov 26 to Dec 3 the TSP funds on share price recorded increases/decreases as follows: G = +.01, F=-.01, C=+.09, S= +.19, I=+.24

So, the stock funds did ok.

The market reacted on low oil and economic indicators. A good advance on the 1st, but also some daily fizzles. There was some strength in the market but also some dissapointments. Some of the economic forecasts were missed. On the big picture, we have a bull market, lately it has been moving sideways, showing the economic uncertainity. My opinion, is that it used November stats and it should pick up for December (Christmas), and continue through much of January. The opposite consideration would be a decline in sales and a change in the oil factor.

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[Mike]

imported post

tsptalk wrote:

Curious, why do you think it will effect Monday and not already factored in today (Friday)?

Thanks

Here's how I'm looking at it: the EAFE index gained 0.6% on Friday. That's $0.06 per $10, or $0.09 per $15, which is exactly how much the I fund gained. Now, if the currency exchange rates were flat, this is the gain I would expect to see. However, with the dollar falling over 1% against the Euro and about 1% against various other currencies, I would expect an additional currency bump in the I fund. Since I did not see that in Friday's closing price, I am led to believe that it will be factored into Monday's price. Am I wrong on this?

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Thanks for the explanation. Makes sense.I looked on http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.htmland it says the EAFE was actually down slightly Friday in local (foreign) currencies, but up .6% in US dollars.

It will be interesting to see what happens Monday.

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Mike.........I see your concern on the I-fund. BIMHO this is a complication that is inherent in the international fund itself. For us TSP novices, the bottom line is whether the I - fund is a good investment or not. The risks of the fund should be evaluated as a good performer in this bull market. What are the tolerances, individually in a fund that has a two fold risk (currency+market), and how does one include this in their TSP alocation. This is a personal decision. I believe that the risk of the I - fund have been researched and documented on this forum. It's up to the individual members how much if any of the I - fund they want in their portfolio.

My recommendations for an international fund (everyone but the US) would be 50-40% aggressive, 30% or less conservative, and0% if you don't watch it. Reason being that the C and S funds (US funds) are doing a good job. Yes the I - fund has out performed. But consider the risk and your tolerance!

Please don't leap into a swimming pool unless you knowif it has water. Know whatyou are doing before taking the plunge. It's your retirement!

Rgds Spaf

 

[Mike]

imported post

I think I *generally* know what I'm doing. My YTD gains are in the 8.7% range now, in spite of the fact I missed the big two-week surge in early November. My 75% allocation in S is short-term - I'll be pulling that to G next week. My 25% in the I fund is going to remain there until the dollar shows signs of breaking out of its extended bout of weakness... which could take awhile.

Honestly, if I manage 8.7% each year, I'll have nothing to worry about - and will probably be able to live a much more lavish lifestyle in retirement than I ever considered living while working. Ah, the advantage of the 40 year-plan... :^

 

[Rod]

imported post

smedlap wrote:

Chaplain, your moving about fast. Welcome to another site. Chaplain - not gold! please - how about I coin platinum!:^

My Wife & Ihave platinum wedding / engagement rings.Does that count???

 

[Rod]

imported post

tsptalk wrote:

Agree. I am just going to delete the bashing posts! No need for it.

Thank you, Tom.