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Market Talk
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Mike
You just can't predict the market. When you think it should go up, it declines and visa versa,--- love it.
I've found that the big picture sometimes gets confused with an intermediate picture or becomes obscured in some respect. I know that part of it is not being able to effect changes the same day. We have to play within the constraints of the system, and the market. None of us that I know has or has had any inside information. And I've never recieved a call from TSP saying that I should buy, sell, or change my allocation.
Mike
You just can't predict the market. When you think it should go up, it declines and visa versa,--- love it.
I've found that the big picture sometimes gets confused with an intermediate picture or becomes obscured in some respect. I know that part of it is not being able to effect changes the same day. We have to play within the constraints of the system, and the market. None of us that I know has or has had any inside information. And I've never recieved a call from TSP saying that I should buy, sell, or change my allocation.
coolhand
Well-known member
imported post
I for one am not going to go bearish for the rest of the week. Data was too strong today, with the exception of consumer confidence.
Spaf, I did see that particular market gauge, but did not expect it to come in as low as it did. That indicator is not in line with the rest of Q4 data so far. I suspect it'san aberration. The market certainly didn't buy into it.
How about that "I" fund!!! Up 1.71% today :dude:!!! This cat ain't bouncing just yet. Today, weaker dollar, oil down on higher inventories. Take advantage of market conditions while you can.
I mentioned a couple of days ago that I was going to go 30/40/30 GSIeffective Wednesday. Well, Tuesday morning as I sat there thinkingaboutmy anticipated move I changed my mind and went 70/30 SI. I had to remind myself that my picture is long term and the market is poised for more gains even with eventual pullbacks. Went with my instinct and it paid off.
Here's something else to think about as far as the "I" fund goes. Oil and the dollar are somewhat tied to each other. In other words, oil is priced in dollars internationally. In general, as the dollar gets weaker, oil rises. That was not the case today, but that was because of higher inventory levels. What this means is that the European marketis not affected as much as our market by higher oil because their currency is so much stronger than our own. Plus, in general if our economy is doing well, most other markets follow. I still like the "I" fund throughFriday at least :^.
I for one am not going to go bearish for the rest of the week. Data was too strong today, with the exception of consumer confidence.
Spaf, I did see that particular market gauge, but did not expect it to come in as low as it did. That indicator is not in line with the rest of Q4 data so far. I suspect it'san aberration. The market certainly didn't buy into it.
How about that "I" fund!!! Up 1.71% today :dude:!!! This cat ain't bouncing just yet. Today, weaker dollar, oil down on higher inventories. Take advantage of market conditions while you can.
I mentioned a couple of days ago that I was going to go 30/40/30 GSIeffective Wednesday. Well, Tuesday morning as I sat there thinkingaboutmy anticipated move I changed my mind and went 70/30 SI. I had to remind myself that my picture is long term and the market is poised for more gains even with eventual pullbacks. Went with my instinct and it paid off.
Here's something else to think about as far as the "I" fund goes. Oil and the dollar are somewhat tied to each other. In other words, oil is priced in dollars internationally. In general, as the dollar gets weaker, oil rises. That was not the case today, but that was because of higher inventory levels. What this means is that the European marketis not affected as much as our market by higher oil because their currency is so much stronger than our own. Plus, in general if our economy is doing well, most other markets follow. I still like the "I" fund throughFriday at least :^.
coolhand
Well-known member
imported post
How can we buck this market? Q4 data looks pretty good so far. I'm also thinking that because this is December morejobs are created (seasonal). That should help the employment picture Friday. If that number comes in lower (5.3% or lower)the market will probably take off again. I'm staying in stocks 100% for that reason.
The IMS number helps bolster the notion that our market is in expansion, even if moderately. I'm not so sure seasonality readings are going to be as big a factor this year for this particular month. I won't make any predictions, but everything still looks fairly bullish for the short term (December). Any pullbacks/consolidations are probably going to be limited just like the last few weeks.
Remember... my opinion only. I'm just an amatuer, but would love to beat the big guys. For the record, I'm up about 14.3% this year. I plan on starting an account thread at the beginning of the new year for everyone to follow.
How can we buck this market? Q4 data looks pretty good so far. I'm also thinking that because this is December morejobs are created (seasonal). That should help the employment picture Friday. If that number comes in lower (5.3% or lower)the market will probably take off again. I'm staying in stocks 100% for that reason.
The IMS number helps bolster the notion that our market is in expansion, even if moderately. I'm not so sure seasonality readings are going to be as big a factor this year for this particular month. I won't make any predictions, but everything still looks fairly bullish for the short term (December). Any pullbacks/consolidations are probably going to be limited just like the last few weeks.
Remember... my opinion only. I'm just an amatuer, but would love to beat the big guys. For the record, I'm up about 14.3% this year. I plan on starting an account thread at the beginning of the new year for everyone to follow.
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
With such a large rally what are the odd the market will go down friday? And which one whould I stick with in order to loose less money?:shock::shock::shock::shock::shock::shock::shock:
With such a large rally what are the odd the market will go down friday? And which one whould I stick with in order to loose less money?:shock::shock::shock::shock::shock::shock::shock:
coolhand
Well-known member
imported post
Hello ablingbutch,
No one can be sure what happens Friday of course, but right now we may be in the beginning of another bull run. It sounds as if you are expecting a pull-back.
Most of us do not tell anyone how to play the market, only how we interpret it at a given point in time, which allows us tomakeinformed decisions. How you play it depends on a number of factors such as your time horizon, risk tolerance and personal goals. Do you want to buy and hold, time the market or something in between (allocation adjustments)?
I recommend taking the time to develop agood understanding of the market through this site, recommended readings and browsing financial publications as well as internet web sites. In the meantime, readTom's daily postsand whomever else you trust to help guide you as you go through this learning process.
For the time being, whether the market goes up or down on Friday may not make much difference if you decide to take a position and stick with it. I think C, S and I funds are all good bets for the month yet. Good luck, and let us know what you decide.
Hello ablingbutch,
No one can be sure what happens Friday of course, but right now we may be in the beginning of another bull run. It sounds as if you are expecting a pull-back.
Most of us do not tell anyone how to play the market, only how we interpret it at a given point in time, which allows us tomakeinformed decisions. How you play it depends on a number of factors such as your time horizon, risk tolerance and personal goals. Do you want to buy and hold, time the market or something in between (allocation adjustments)?
I recommend taking the time to develop agood understanding of the market through this site, recommended readings and browsing financial publications as well as internet web sites. In the meantime, readTom's daily postsand whomever else you trust to help guide you as you go through this learning process.
For the time being, whether the market goes up or down on Friday may not make much difference if you decide to take a position and stick with it. I think C, S and I funds are all good bets for the month yet. Good luck, and let us know what you decide
.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Since we have the bull market going, I thought I would share some information to others that I try to follow. Sometimes I have to kick myself for not following this information.
The secret of successful trading is to take a step back from the market. Trade with the big picture in mind at all times and don't follow the day to day market movement.
Daily market talk can hypnotize you if you follow it too closely. You have to see the wood and not the individual trees.
Focus on the big picture. Follow the bull market and not individual stocks. The market has more influence on stock prices than any other factor. Even the best stocks decline in a bear market.
So what is the secret formula?
The key is to buy when the market signals the start of a bull trend. Select leading stocks that are outperforming the market. Sell when the bull trend has ended.
There are exceptions to this rule: Sell individual stocks if they move against the trend.
There are two primary movements in the market, generally termed bull or bear, these are long sustained advances or declines. There are secondary movements in the market that run counter to the primary movements and are reactionary. In the bear market they are called rallies. In the bull market they are called corrections or sometimes referred to as firming up.
The important thing is not to lose sight of the big picture, and to have a good allocation of funds. When to exit and when to enter the market is not easy even witha understanding of The Dow Theory (See recommended readings on this site, or on the internet via search engines).
Buying and holding and ormarket timing can work to ones advantage, provided one knows what they are doing. As I've been told "knows" is a auful big word.
Attached is a chart of the S&P 500 as of 12-01 for 3 months. The chart is in candlesticks for reference to how the market advanced during the current bull period. And, I have included a 5D MA to soften the ups and downs, and a 50D MA for general trend.
Will be staying in 100%stocks for the near future at 25C, 45S, and 30I.
Rgds., and be careful! Spaf
Since we have the bull market going, I thought I would share some information to others that I try to follow. Sometimes I have to kick myself for not following this information.
The secret of successful trading is to take a step back from the market. Trade with the big picture in mind at all times and don't follow the day to day market movement.
Daily market talk can hypnotize you if you follow it too closely. You have to see the wood and not the individual trees.
Focus on the big picture. Follow the bull market and not individual stocks. The market has more influence on stock prices than any other factor. Even the best stocks decline in a bear market.
So what is the secret formula?
The key is to buy when the market signals the start of a bull trend. Select leading stocks that are outperforming the market. Sell when the bull trend has ended.
There are exceptions to this rule: Sell individual stocks if they move against the trend.
There are two primary movements in the market, generally termed bull or bear, these are long sustained advances or declines. There are secondary movements in the market that run counter to the primary movements and are reactionary. In the bear market they are called rallies. In the bull market they are called corrections or sometimes referred to as firming up.
The important thing is not to lose sight of the big picture, and to have a good allocation of funds. When to exit and when to enter the market is not easy even witha understanding of The Dow Theory (See recommended readings on this site, or on the internet via search engines).
Buying and holding and ormarket timing can work to ones advantage, provided one knows what they are doing. As I've been told "knows" is a auful big word.
Attached is a chart of the S&P 500 as of 12-01 for 3 months. The chart is in candlesticks for reference to how the market advanced during the current bull period. And, I have included a 5D MA to soften the ups and downs, and a 50D MA for general trend.
Will be staying in 100%stocks for the near future at 25C, 45S, and 30I.
Rgds., and be careful!
Spafpuertorico
Member
imported post
Spaf
Can u explain what the graph is telling.
Look like is telling will go up.But I dont
understand what those graph tell at all.
Some basic reading will apreciate...:?
Spaf
Can u explain what the graph is telling.
Look like is telling will go up.But I dont
understand what those graph tell at all.
Some basic reading will apreciate...:?
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Puertorico
The graph confirms a bull market. It went through a correction (firming up) and is advancing. Advances have been strong based on past actions. Where it leads, well thats for the market to answer. Right now, in my opinion, I'm going to hold them (as in the song).
Got to go to Wall-Mart (WMT) for more trash bags to put the green stuff in! Maybe I can get some of these analysist of consumer confidense to help me!
Puertorico
The graph confirms a bull market. It went through a correction (firming up) and is advancing. Advances have been strong based on past actions. Where it leads, well thats for the market to answer. Right now, in my opinion, I'm going to hold them (as in the song).
Got to go to Wall-Mart (WMT) for more trash bags to put the green stuff in! Maybe I can get some of these analysist of consumer confidense to help me!
puertorico
Member
imported post
Thanks Spaf
Reuters - 43 minutes ago
Japan's Nikkei share average notched up its biggest daily gain in two weeks on Thursday as investors took a rally in U.S. stocks as a signal to buy, shrugging off a rise in the yen to its highest level in nearly five years.
Thanks Spaf
Reuters - 43 minutes ago
Japan's Nikkei share average notched up its biggest daily gain in two weeks on Thursday as investors took a rally in U.S. stocks as a signal to buy, shrugging off a rise in the yen to its highest level in nearly five years.
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