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Market Talk
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
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Mike, you're doing great.Everyday one learns. Most important point is you areplaying your own account premised upon your own decisions. Look how much I've learned - I'm still 100% I fund.Isn't that stupid?:end:. I think I need a prayor from the chaplain as the surf is rising! Or is it declining? We'll anyway between this post and the I post, there are many excellent viewpoint exchanges. I hope I get that extra I exchange rate bump on Monday. Could not figure out what happened to it. Thought someone at TSP simply put it into the coffee slush fund. Glad that Tom picked up on it.
I think I'm going to ride the high wave I fund thru what I have calculated a - 1% consolidation premised upon last year's data up to and during the FOMC. Then I hope 5 weeks of good returns starting 15 Dec on. I said "I think" as I will make my day-by-day decisions premised upon everyones' "informative" posting contributions! But things certainly still look very good.....
Mike, you're doing great.Everyday one learns. Most important point is you areplaying your own account premised upon your own decisions. Look how much I've learned - I'm still 100% I fund.Isn't that stupid?:end:. I think I need a prayor from the chaplain as the surf is rising! Or is it declining? We'll anyway between this post and the I post, there are many excellent viewpoint exchanges. I hope I get that extra I exchange rate bump on Monday. Could not figure out what happened to it. Thought someone at TSP simply put it into the coffee slush fund. Glad that Tom picked up on it.
I think I'm going to ride the high wave I fund thru what I have calculated a - 1% consolidation premised upon last year's data up to and during the FOMC. Then I hope 5 weeks of good returns starting 15 Dec on. I said "I think" as I will make my day-by-day decisions premised upon everyones' "informative" posting contributions! But things certainly still look very good.....
coolhand
Well-known member
imported post
Smedlap,
How do you see the Spain bombing playing out in the "I"? The media doesn't seem to making a real big deal out of it. Of course the media isn't the financial market.I think it may just be a short blip on the radar screen. Only because it isn't getting a whole lot of air time.
Futures are mixed http://money.cnn.com/markets/afterhours/
I don't particularly pay too much attention to futures, but it's there.
Smedlap,
How do you see the Spain bombing playing out in the "I"? The media doesn't seem to making a real big deal out of it. Of course the media isn't the financial market.I think it may just be a short blip on the radar screen. Only because it isn't getting a whole lot of air time.
Futures are mixed http://money.cnn.com/markets/afterhours/
I don't particularly pay too much attention to futures, but it's there.
sonofthunder
New member
imported post
cool page yall got here. first time user today. Hi Yall. been watchin & readin. like what i see and read. already made up some of that lost loot
when i knew no better in 2003.:dah: know nothing about the market and appreciate you folks bein kind enough to hep 1 who is just learnin the rope. been hanging in that S & I fund mostly since oct.04 and this site gives a feller hope in knowin what all members in the tsp should know. yes there be more life to our fund then just the G & F andone can make some bucks just by learin the basics and movin 1s choices from time to time. want to thank all for your great input. will get the word out at work so others can check this out. have a great weekend yall. my teams comin on soon. go sooners!:^
cool page yall got here. first time user today. Hi Yall. been watchin & readin. like what i see and read. already made up some of that lost loot
when i knew no better in 2003.:dah: know nothing about the market and appreciate you folks bein kind enough to hep 1 who is just learnin the rope. been hanging in that S & I fund mostly since oct.04 and this site gives a feller hope in knowin what all members in the tsp should know. yes there be more life to our fund then just the G & F andone can make some bucks just by learin the basics and movin 1s choices from time to time. want to thank all for your great input. will get the word out at work so others can check this out. have a great weekend yall. my teams comin on soon. go sooners!:^imported post
Ok, I hear people talk about other sights. I can use all the help I can get. I LOVE this sight, but, I will like to see other sights. Please, tell me the other sights that you all are using. I hear you all saying to Chaplin found another sight well whats your first sight then.:#
Chaplin. Yes, I want the gold coin sliped through the window into my stalking this Christmas.
I have been weak in the I fund. I am slowly moving money in to it. I am cost averaging in if you will. Would hate to move a lot in and then have it take a big hit at one time. I have been reading that Europe and Asia are talking about buying our dollars to stop the losing trend it is in, or slow it down. This could hurt the I fund.
Take care.
Ok, I hear people talk about other sights. I can use all the help I can get. I LOVE this sight, but, I will like to see other sights. Please, tell me the other sights that you all are using. I hear you all saying to Chaplin found another sight well whats your first sight then.:#
Chaplin. Yes, I want the gold coin sliped through the window into my stalking this Christmas.
I have been weak in the I fund. I am slowly moving money in to it. I am cost averaging in if you will. Would hate to move a lot in and then have it take a big hit at one time. I have been reading that Europe and Asia are talking about buying our dollars to stop the losing trend it is in, or slow it down. This could hurt the I fund.
Take care.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
After reading some of the recent posts/coments, I wanted to state my humble opinion.
Be careful of what you hear. You can find good and bad advice mixed together. where It may at first look good,certain areas need caution. Ferengi Rule #59, 177.
1. Our TSP funds are multi fund indexes. Beware of buying sector funds such as precious metals, technology, etc. They have higher risk and are more volatile, #62, 82, 218.
2. When someone says to get ready for a recession. Without a date, thats like saying get ready for rain. Or inFlorida it would be like saying be prepared for a hurricane, #162.
3. 40 - 50% International fund is aggressive. 30% is moderate. Members near retirement should consider the2-fold risk of the I - fund
4. Buying the dips and selling the tops, is idealistic market timing. Sometimes you can do it, sometimes you can't. This works great when used with monday-morning-quarterbacking. In TSP we just try and avoid the bear slashes, and run with the bulls. Using some of the market trader firms makes the buying and selling a lot easier than TSP where the transfer takes 1-2 days.
5. Paying off miscellaneous loans. Now thats a good idea. Especially those with high rates, RE: Capital One commercials.
6. Mortgages with arms are risky. Yea, thats a given. Interest rates go up so does the mortgage rate. Low fixed rates are better.
7. Be careful of investing, know what you are doing, and beware of any "confidential systems" i.e., buying into bridges, #74.
8. When will the current bull market end. Don't know. And neither does anyone else! But you can be prepared. And, you can educate yourself by understanding "The Dow Theory" in recommended readings in the site forum or by a search of this topic.
Rgds, and be careful #199!Spaf
After reading some of the recent posts/coments, I wanted to state my humble opinion.
Be careful of what you hear. You can find good and bad advice mixed together. where It may at first look good,certain areas need caution. Ferengi Rule #59, 177.
1. Our TSP funds are multi fund indexes. Beware of buying sector funds such as precious metals, technology, etc. They have higher risk and are more volatile, #62, 82, 218.
2. When someone says to get ready for a recession. Without a date, thats like saying get ready for rain. Or inFlorida it would be like saying be prepared for a hurricane, #162.
3. 40 - 50% International fund is aggressive. 30% is moderate. Members near retirement should consider the2-fold risk of the I - fund
4. Buying the dips and selling the tops, is idealistic market timing. Sometimes you can do it, sometimes you can't. This works great when used with monday-morning-quarterbacking. In TSP we just try and avoid the bear slashes, and run with the bulls. Using some of the market trader firms makes the buying and selling a lot easier than TSP where the transfer takes 1-2 days.
5. Paying off miscellaneous loans. Now thats a good idea. Especially those with high rates, RE: Capital One commercials.
6. Mortgages with arms are risky. Yea, thats a given. Interest rates go up so does the mortgage rate. Low fixed rates are better.
7. Be careful of investing, know what you are doing, and beware of any "confidential systems" i.e., buying into bridges, #74.
8. When will the current bull market end. Don't know. And neither does anyone else! But you can be prepared. And, you can educate yourself by understanding "The Dow Theory" in recommended readings in the site forum or by a search of this topic.
Rgds, and be careful #199!
Spaf
Mike
Active member
imported post
I track the european markets at www.euroland.com (indices).
I watch the dollar v euro / yen and futures for S&P / Nasdaq at money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call
As for the I fund, basically what you should be watching for is what percentage the I fund rises or falls compared to the EAFE. Of course, Tom said earlier that the 0.6% gain on the EAFE Friday was already corrected for the exchange rate, in which case my theory is meaningless. I'll still be watching closely on Monday though, to make sure this is the case.
I track the european markets at www.euroland.com (indices).
I watch the dollar v euro / yen and futures for S&P / Nasdaq at money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call
As for the I fund, basically what you should be watching for is what percentage the I fund rises or falls compared to the EAFE. Of course, Tom said earlier that the 0.6% gain on the EAFE Friday was already corrected for the exchange rate, in which case my theory is meaningless. I'll still be watching closely on Monday though, to make sure this is the case.
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Ferengi Rule #1 - the trend is your friend.
You can nay say all you want. Those are the type of people that sit on their hands and let the obvious pass them by.
Recession - when gas/food prices (that are not counted towards towards inflation) are going through the roof and the low end retailers are struggling then that is a signal that something is up. When U.S. government spends 20% more then they take in that is a sign of pain moving forward. Last time the U.S. dollar fall like this was 1987 and the S&P 500 fall 25% in two days.
Spaf - those who are proactive and not sit back and say this that and the other are the ones that make money. You summed it up -
In TSP we just try and avoid the bear slashes, and run with the bulls. There are people on this board hiding out in the G fund and moving to F fund after the F fund Nav goes up .07 in one day.
If you look at my chart: You will see that if you by in Halloween and sell on Martin Luther King day has worked five years in a row. 2003 was shaping up with the same pattern - the reactoactive tax cuts started the bull run in a bear market.
Keep in mind we will still be in a bear market for another 8 to 10 years - you keep saying we are in a bull market - WE ARE NOT. You need to make money in periods like NOW and not sit back and nay say.
Good luck!
Ferengi Rule #1 - the trend is your friend.
You can nay say all you want. Those are the type of people that sit on their hands and let the obvious pass them by.
Recession - when gas/food prices (that are not counted towards towards inflation) are going through the roof and the low end retailers are struggling then that is a signal that something is up. When U.S. government spends 20% more then they take in that is a sign of pain moving forward. Last time the U.S. dollar fall like this was 1987 and the S&P 500 fall 25% in two days.
Spaf - those who are proactive and not sit back and say this that and the other are the ones that make money. You summed it up -
In TSP we just try and avoid the bear slashes, and run with the bulls. There are people on this board hiding out in the G fund and moving to F fund after the F fund Nav goes up .07 in one day.
If you look at my chart: You will see that if you by in Halloween and sell on Martin Luther King day has worked five years in a row. 2003 was shaping up with the same pattern - the reactoactive tax cuts started the bull run in a bear market.
Keep in mind we will still be in a bear market for another 8 to 10 years - you keep saying we are in a bull market - WE ARE NOT. You need to make money in periods like NOW and not sit back and nay say.
Good luck!
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Ok, here is something I have not thought about and now I need to. So I would like some ideas from all of you, please. I change my funds, (not near as often as some of you). So I was not paying attention tohow my money goes into the different funds. How do you do it. All G and there it sits tell your bullish and do a trade? Stocks and there it sits tell you do a trade?
o Or, Perhaps change allocations to reflect where you are in the funds. Most of the year I sit where I am at and trade once in a while. I believe I like comming in around November and getting out around April.
Thanks
Ok, here is something I have not thought about and now I need to. So I would like some ideas from all of you, please. I change my funds, (not near as often as some of you). So I was not paying attention tohow my money goes into the different funds. How do you do it. All G and there it sits tell your bullish and do a trade? Stocks and there it sits tell you do a trade?
o Or, Perhaps change allocations to reflect where you are in the funds. Most of the year I sit where I am at and trade once in a while. I believe I like comming in around November and getting out around April. Thanks
imported post
You made the first very smart move. You were not afraid to ask! Always ask. That's what so nice about this site.
Go into your account and go to Account Transactions. On the next slide, type your SSN and Pin number and enter, Next slide click on Interfund transfers. Next slide, since you are just starting recommend you diversify by putting 33% in the 3 funds or follow Tom's advice. Some of us play very aggressively or take much more risk.
G fund is a no brainer and only a place to retreat to during market declines.
Go ahead and try a transfer today as you can enter again and cancel without any problem. Trades made befor 12:00 EST are made at COB the same day or before the market open nextAM. Otherwise it is 2 days.
Change your contribution also in the same way.
You made the first very smart move. You were not afraid to ask! Always ask. That's what so nice about this site.
Go into your account and go to Account Transactions. On the next slide, type your SSN and Pin number and enter, Next slide click on Interfund transfers. Next slide, since you are just starting recommend you diversify by putting 33% in the 3 funds or follow Tom's advice. Some of us play very aggressively or take much more risk.
G fund is a no brainer and only a place to retreat to during market declines.
Go ahead and try a transfer today as you can enter again and cancel without any problem. Trades made befor 12:00 EST are made at COB the same day or before the market open nextAM. Otherwise it is 2 days.
Change your contribution also in the same way.
imported post
Market Trader - good morning. Some very valid points. We have had an accounts trade Delta since 1976. Not sure I agree with you on a Bear market but that just places us on opposides of the fence. Do hawever agree with your Forengi rule number 1 and that one must make money during opportunistic times such asthis.
I never thought about investing inIRA until August as everyone recommends as early as possible. But your right! I also ran the stats on the last week of january and clearly the time to have run from stocks!
Your thoughts of retreating to G 4 days preceeding the FOMC? And then reentering? Or are you keeping a steady hand? And what hand is that again?
Thanks, being in Hawaii, your up very early or coming home from a late party!
Market Trader - good morning. Some very valid points. We have had an accounts trade Delta since 1976. Not sure I agree with you on a Bear market but that just places us on opposides of the fence. Do hawever agree with your Forengi rule number 1 and that one must make money during opportunistic times such asthis.
I never thought about investing inIRA until August as everyone recommends as early as possible. But your right! I also ran the stats on the last week of january and clearly the time to have run from stocks!
Your thoughts of retreating to G 4 days preceeding the FOMC? And then reentering? Or are you keeping a steady hand? And what hand is that again?
Thanks, being in Hawaii, your up very early or coming home from a late party!
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Smed,
The pattern with the fed tightening is the market likes if that day and then the next day it sells off. I.E. The day of the .25 is added to the short rate we have a rally the next day is a down day. I believe they meet on the 14th. That would be great because the next day you guys have your TSP contributions hit.
Do not fret about the market until the 3rd week of January.
Who knows where the market would be without the tax cuts that passed last March? Historically tax cuts help the market for about 18 months and we are coming up to that time frame.
By plan is to move my TSP nugget to the side in Jan and play the ups and downs like I have done this year.
Good luck!
MT
Smed,
The pattern with the fed tightening is the market likes if that day and then the next day it sells off. I.E. The day of the .25 is added to the short rate we have a rally the next day is a down day. I believe they meet on the 14th. That would be great because the next day you guys have your TSP contributions hit.
Do not fret about the market until the 3rd week of January.
Who knows where the market would be without the tax cuts that passed last March? Historically tax cuts help the market for about 18 months and we are coming up to that time frame.
By plan is to move my TSP nugget to the side in Jan and play the ups and downs like I have done this year.
Good luck!
MT
imported post
MarketTimer wrote:
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
[/u]
MarketTimer wrote:
I guess it doesn't matter what we call it, but what is your definition of a bear market to make you say weare still in one? The S&P 500 is up 49% in less than two years. If you are getting technical by saying we are down since the 2000 top, then we can say we are still in a bull market from the early 80's where the uptrend was never broken. Only a bubble bursting to normal levels...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
[/u]
I do agree with this however, as a short term possibilty. The market will need a rest soon, but I believe it stillhas some legsleft in it before then (as you mention).
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Also, the S&P 400 (mid-caps) and S&P 600 (small caps) are still very much in a bull market...
Chart provided courtesy of http://www.decisionpoint.com
Also, the S&P 400 (mid-caps) and S&P 600 (small caps) are still very much in a bull market...
Chart provided courtesy of http://www.decisionpoint.com
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Thanks Tom, and Market Timer! Both views are most valuable and most appreciated by all, and certainly me. I think it fairly clear how we should plan our respective moves in the near term (being next week). Bull or Bear market, who cares the position as long as we don't slip into the caca!:^ 100% in I fund for Monday and I see the dollar is projected to continue down against the Euro. Will be looking for I fund bump Monday due for Friday's trade. Happy trading!
Thanks Tom, and Market Timer! Both views are most valuable and most appreciated by all, and certainly me. I think it fairly clear how we should plan our respective moves in the near term (being next week). Bull or Bear market, who cares the position as long as we don't slip into the caca!:^ 100% in I fund for Monday and I see the dollar is projected to continue down against the Euro. Will be looking for I fund bump Monday due for Friday's trade. Happy trading!
imported post
Mike wrote:
Even though the I fund was down, it wascushioned as you suggested.
Mike wrote:
You may have been right Mike. The dollar was up modestly, and the EAFE index was down .4% (in foreign currency) so you'd expect the I fund to take it on the chin. Instead it was a rather tame .03.
Even though the I fund was down, it wascushioned as you suggested.
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