Market Talk

[smedlap]

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Spaf, your not going anywhere! The best players on the market made no money until October - November following the election. Difficult market. you made some very valid comments but don't beat yourself. Nice thing about Tom is that created "Talk". I have played a long time and it is the long haul. While working most of the weekend I listened to Bloomberg recycle. Got a lot done on the house. We have to stay stocks. I think I is the best as the I Fund is invested in valued international stocks. That does not mean the International environment is better, just those stocks and our support of the war. Who else is paying a damn dime! In time, it will shift back to the US. Who is Schroder (Germany) to suggest we focus on our housekeeping when Germany's GDP is a miserable 1%. This market is going to hoot until mid January so ride the horse. Oil is the only uncertainty. May I point out, nice to see a very honest personal assessment. OK Tom, your horse for Monday. I am 100% I and a US Nationalist!

 

[coolhand]

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Smedlap -

Currently I am 40/30/30 CSI. I don't care for the "F" fund so as far as I am concerned it doesn't exist.All my new TSP purchases go to the "G" fund as I want to dictate when and where it gets played,otherwiseI only use the "G" fund to duck into when I want to try and time a move.

The "C" fund is not as interest rate sensitive as the "S" although that may not be a real big factor for the moment. But as interest rates begin to increase it will have a greater bearing. It's also not quite a volatile as "S" and "I" and helps to reduce risk to some degree.

The "S" fund still looks good to me as interest rates are still very attractive. When bonds start to sell off (bonds and higher interest rates don't mix) that may bea signal to pull back from "S". They sold off Friday, but I'm not so sure it will continue as bonds were reacting to comments made at the G20 meeting. Much of the inflows to bonds are coming from the forex market who are trying to keep the dollar from falling too much or too fast, else their products will become more expensive to the US market (their main source of trade).

The "I" fund is harder to predict as it has many more moving parts, but it is made up of relatively large cap companies in Europe, Asia (Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong) and Australia (all highly developed countries). Since we have a weak dollar that is probably going to get weakerfor awhile yet, the"I" fund seems for the moment to be a good hedge on our domestic funds.

Overall I diversified my holdings to reduce risk.I make my decisions based on my own data gatheringalong withwatching and listening (critically)to fellow TSP investorson thisforum. I still have a lot to learn, but I'm gettingthere. As of Friday I am up 10.18% for the year.

 

[Spaf]

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Thanks guys/gals!

Na, I'm not leaving the forum, just taking a week off! Us senior govt folk get so much leave time, well.... The gains from 2003 are going to let me retire early in 2006. Partially, with less then two years to go, my allocations are more conservative then others (at times). So I don't want to mislead others that may be on a different time frame, I'm kind of leaning towards capital preservation, if you get my drift. Kind of the reason I'm reluctant to post returns.
Myproblem is with the TSP system (or similiar system) that operates with participants not familiar with how the system works (the market).

Have a good Thanksgiving, and will see you about the 26th or 27th.

Will stop for now with my Turkey joke: Three brokers were out hunting turkeys. They spotted one. The first broker shot, and hit behind the turkey. The second broker shot and hit way in front of the turkey. The third broker threw down his gun and said "we got him".

 

[Mike]

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Foreign market action thus far:

Hong Kong, Japan, and Australia (roughly 30% of the I fund) all fell from 1/2 to 2%... however, these are broad indices. I don't know how the individual companies within the I fund performed from those markets.

The dollar continues to fall against the Euro (1 Eur = $1.3046 at last check - up 0.12%).

S&P Futures are down about 3 1/2 points, Nasdaq Futures down about 7.

Economic data this week:
23rd: Investor confidence index, existing home sales, redbook
24th: Consumer sentiment, new home sales, jobless claims, durable goods orders, MBA purchase applications, help wanted index

All in all, I'd say this looks like another down day.

 

[Dakota]

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i'll stick to 50 c 50 s for a while too many problems right now with I fund, too much involved, this is a historical week oyerall real good. it has not been as good in the last 8 to ten years as it was before, but it is still one of the best weeks of the year

 

[Mike]

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All of the foreign markets I looked at were up thus far today - avg gains around 0.5%.

I was right about yesterday being a down day until the oil price dipped late - that was enough to bump us into positive territory.

 

[Rod]

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Mike wrote:

All of the foreign markets I looked at were up thus far today - avg gains around 0.5%.

I was right about yesterday being a down day until the oil price dipped late - that was enough to bump us into positive territory.

Yes, they should do good today.:^

 

[Show-me]

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Bring on the GREEN!!:!

 

[Rod]

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Does anyone have the closings for that terrible day on Friday? This is what I need for my records:

DJIA:

NAS:

S&P 500:

RUSSELL 2000:

EAFE (percentage please):

Thank you for your assistance!

God Bless:^

 

[Rod]

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While I'm thinking of it, there has to be a site that has a history of closings.

Does anyone know where that is?

 

[Guest]

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Rod, I don't know the correct symbol for Russell 2000 but if you do you can get it here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/l?s=russell+2000&t=I&m=US

 

[Rod]

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Wonder Woman wrote:

Rod, I don't know the correct symbol for Russell 2000 but if you do you can get it here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/l?s=russell+2000&t=I&m=US

Thanx!:^

 

[rubdee]

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I am new here and very unsavvy of market trends and tsp. I notice that this website offers much help on new allocations but I have yet to see anything on where to keep your funds you already have. Is there any info on interfund tranfers and where to keep them or move them?

 

[Guest]

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rubdee wrote:

I am new here and very unsavvy of market trends and tsp. I notice that this website offers much help on new allocations but I have yet to see anything on where to keep your funds you already have. Is there any info on interfund tranfers and where to keep them or move them?

Welcome rubdee, interfund transfers "are" what we are talking about...........my "new" money coming in just goes into G fund until I make an interfund transfer back to G, then I take it with me on my next move into stocks..

Good luck,

M_M

 

[Guest]

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Hi Rubdee, I'm pretty new here myself. Here's a list of good beginnings:

Go to TSP Talk homepage, in left column read Finance 101, the Funds
Go to main Message Board and read posts under Short Term & Long Term Strategies. Investment Portfolios
Use the Search feature to find specific topics in the posts, i.e., strategies, interfund transfers
Use the QUESTION forum to ask your questions along the way when you get lost or confused.


But if you haven't already read the information available at TSP.gov, you probably should start there: http://www.tsp.gov/forms/index.htmland read all the publications that explain what the TSP funds are about: TSP At A Glance, Managing Your TSP Account, the booklets that explain each of the Funds.

 

[Dakota]

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Dakota wrote:

i'll stick to 50 c 50 s for a while too many problems right now with I fund, too much involved, this is a historical week oyerall real good. it has not been as good in the last 8 to ten years as it was before, but it is still one of the best weeks of the year

most years, ya'll be careful,good luck I guess I posted this in the wrong date right forum oh well see ya

 

[Guest]

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Nip and tuck between the S and I today. Lookin' like a photo finish eh namor?

 

[Mike]

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The dollar hit a new low against the Euro... I wouldn't be surprised if the I fund really jumps tomorrow (it was up modestly today).