Market Talk

Spaf

Honorary Hall of Fame Member
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Sunday Nov. 14th

On Friday the S&P left us at 1184.17 with good advances since the bull started at 1090.19 (S&P500) on October 26th.
Market talk is that stocks are expected to keep rising. Good points were that there was reform ahead for taxes and SS. Interest rates were considered low. There was decent Q3 earnings. And, oil was off it's highs. At risk points included: oil, consumer spending, and the weak dollar.
Over the past weeks, advances have been small and moderate, with one small very mild correction on Monday Nov. 8 (1164.89) to Wed Nov 10 (1162.91). Eventually, we will have a pull back. The length and duration would be the big question? If it gets close to 1163, I'll lighten allocations. Currentely 50C, 50S.

Current S&P advances are attached along with the 20D MA.

Rgds :) Spaf
 
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What to do?
Will be checking Monday AM Market reports. Will see how they compare with Friday closings. Feelings are that more diversification is needed in my allocations, but hazard to guess what to do till I see the market nunbers. So Monday will be a wait and see game. :? Rgds and be careful!
 
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Mondays market ended slightly higher.
However the market was choppy all day with the NASD and DOW trending upward in a series of zigzags up and down. Maybe digesting gains of the past week. To hedge against a pullback if and when it comes, will change allocations to 30C, 40S, and 30I.
Rgds, and be careful! :? Spaf
 
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Well, we might be in the pullback Tom has been aluding to. I hope it is of short duration! But, I'm kind of glad it doesn't at this time look to be drastic!

Tom. Do you have a "stop" that you could comment about with the current market?:iHow defensive is too defensive?

Thanks for sheding light on what to/and what not to link up with, will note my files!
:x

M_M. Thanks for indicating what your system was/is. Kind of novel. Hope it works out for you! :^

Wonder Woman. between you and Coolhand, I keep watching your icons. Great stuff! :l

Some members have indicated that transfers are not going through TSP. Could it be the time frame that a lot of changes are close to the deadline of 12:00 EST. I try to make changes in the PM and check AM market ups/downs, and cancell if needed. Could be that we have a bottleneck??? :%

The web site http://markets.usatoday.com give a hint of what can be expected and what goes on during the day. But, it's just a hint!


Rgds and be careful! Spaf
 
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This market seems a bit strange, it's either in granny gear or high gear. Maybe it's just me?
 
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Spaf wrote:
This market seems a bit strange, it's either in granny gear or high gear. Maybe it's just me?
I'm with you! It's VERY hard to read.:P
 
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Spaf wrote:
This market seems a bit strange, it's either in granny gear or high gear. Maybe it's just me?


Grab a hold and hang on. IF it gets too rough you can bail. I staying in pretty hard, could get bucked off, but I'll be right back up there soon

Good luck ya'll
 
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Rod...Dakota
The current market has some similarity with the bull market of 2003, around the April time frame. I was brousing the weekly galleryview of the S&P 500 ($SPX)at Stockcharts.com.
After Tom's comments I'm hesitant to post any links in what might be said.

Rgds
 
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Market / Forem Talk
The S&P closed out today at 1181.94; low of 1175.43, high of 1188.46. Stocks were higher, but were depressed due to oil considerations, and even overshadowed some good earnings. Indicating the critical aspect of oil in the current economy. From Feburary 04,oil has been a key player to the market. It's like an un-consistant factor that has been a persistant interuption to what could be good/better investment times.
TSPTalk (Tom) has invited account posters to indicate their returns as they go. This should be taken with caution, and careful analysis. There is no way that data can be verified. Remember, depending upon goals, time frame, etc., that individual members have their own idea of what I will call "capitol preservation risk". TSP has over 3 million members, most, myself included, are novice to the workings of the investment market system. The only salvation we have is educating ourselves and taking responsibility for our own investments.Listen, learn, and please be careful out there.
Rgds ;) Spaf
 
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Spaf wrote:
Market / Forem Talk
The S&P closed out today at 1181.94; low of 1175.43, high of 1188.46. Stocks were higher, but were depressed due to oil considerations, and even overshadowed some good earnings. Indicating the critical aspect of oil in the current economy. From Feburary 04,oil has been a key player to the market. It's like an un-consistant factor that has been a persistant interuption to what could be good/better investment times.
TSPTalk (Tom) has invited account posters to indicate their returns as they go. This should be taken with caution, and careful analysis. There is no way that data can be verified. Remember, depending upon goals, time frame, etc., that individual members have their own idea of what I will call "capitol preservation risk". TSP has over 3 million members, most, myself included, are novice to the workings of the investment market system. The only salvation we have is educating ourselves and taking responsibility for our own investments.Listen, learn, and please be careful out there.
Rgds ;) Spaf
Ummmm, why can't data be verified? If you post your moves everyday, "before" the bell, you can see when a person is buying and selling and at what price, no? I understand why some may not believe my back tested data. But it's accurate. I make my moves according to the days ending price, not how the market does in the mornings, as some do, so it's "easy" to accurately back test. A pain in the rear, but accurate........Right Joel?.........:shock:

Some people following can't trade intra-day, that is why I take the day's ending price and send them alerts at night.

Good luck,

M_M
 
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Thanks Spaf for your comments. I am listening, trying to learn ( tired of making rookie mistakes ), thisstock management recently consumed my time, thoughts,attitude,and soul: But yesterday I was set free from all that mess I fell prey to and feel more focus on what is really important in life. Now I am trying to be more careful not only with stocks, but responsibility as well.
 
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Hey M_M
Sorry not to get back sooner. I see the good points about someone opting to post returns. And I try to look at both sides. Example, X person has a spreadsheet that you can see, another doesn't but claims things that are not documented. Guidelines should be there, and it's just my feeling. I'm not to interested in the returns, because of the human factor, I'm more in to the psychologyand strategies.
Rgds
Spaf
 
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I think it will be like that till mid December... I think also the trend is bullish... through January... I am profiting from it... :^140K plus... Good Luck... Leon
 
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I think so too... theDOW will hit close to 11,000 some even think 12,000.... S&P 1200 plus is a reality... some even think 1300 I am hanging in threre and profit... :^
 
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LK
January sounds good to me. Have also heard mixed talk about 2005. Right now I'm taking one day, one week at a time. I'm in the I-fund a bit, and that fund has always made me nervous. Probably just me, or something I ate.
Rgds.
 
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Spaf wrote:
LK
January sounds good to me. Have also heard mixed talk about 2005. Right now I'm taking one day, one week at a time. I'm in the I-fund a bit, and that fund has always made me nervous. Probably just me, or something I ate.
Rgds.


The I fund scares the tar out of me. I wish I had the guts to have jumped in earlier.:' I would like to jump in and yet may put some over there. Star, has said that he is for a strong dollar. However, some believe that the U.S. really wants a week dollar. More people outside of the U.S. will buy our stuff and people here will buy less of theirs. This is what I gathered from an artical on Yahoo, Business, Economy Section, (I Believe). Spaf keep letting the others and I know what you are doing. You Tom and a few others have helped us all a great deal, Thanks:!
 
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Learning
Sometimes I start investments at the shallow end of the pool. You can get to safety a lot faster from there,then from the deep end.
I'm still in the same allocations as I posted for Nov.15. Am sticking with it. However, I keep a close eye on the I-fund.
:)
Rgds
 
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Spaf, good to watch ssssssooooooooooomtimes if you are new to the market. Play the market when it is hot. It is hot now. If one wants to be conservative - stay G and get basic rates which are great considering the compounding effect and no taxation. What a great opportunity Congress gave us!

I see I made a mistake in my earlier post which clearly would confuse someone riding the push - pull of the Bears and Bulls. I accidently used C fund insted of G. I was waiting for someone to catch it to see how many understand the falacy. One is either with the road runners C, S and I(sometimes going up or down) or the conservative G and F for losers. Most do not play FERS accounts as it is a retirement account. So times like this - select your road runner!
 
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