Market Talk

[Spaf]

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Smedlap:

yea I agree it's good to watch!

Learning:

Here is my 2 cents: We have a bull market, investments are making $. You need to know the market and funds before investing, trading, timing, etc. This is a big drawback of the TSP or similar program. Participants with few exception are novices. What I have learned is to understand the big picture of the market first (charts, terms, procedures, readings, etc). Then get yourself a plan for exits, entry, market strategy, goals,etc). Set funds up so you can monitor and analyze them. Listen to people who give worthy advice. Give it a test [I suggest the shallow end of the pool first], once you got the moves down, go for it.
Rgds Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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Friday November 19th. 2004 0015
Oil seemed to have slipped to $46.38. If it can keep it's weight off the market, and the market can find it's oxygen mask (at this height) the advance may continue.
Here's hoping!
Rgds Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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Joel
If you would like to post talk in this thread, you are more than welcome!

I start this thread every week to consolidate talk. I know that member account threads and member account talk pages can tend to be confused. I just try to keep my discussions to TSP topics. I'm not big on returns, that's a different basket. Strategies and allocations and etc that can help us govt. employees is my #1.

Rgds Spaf

 

[coolhand]

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Have to agree with Tom about next week being historically strong. Changed my allocation to 40/30/30 CSI effective COB today (was 30/0/30/10/30).

G20 meeting starts today. Many major currencies gaining strength against the dollar this morning. Bodes well for "I" fund. Talk of inflation creeping back into the picture (thanks to high energy), but "F" fund continues its trek upward anyway. That means foreign currencies still buying dollars.

It's a strange market that is perplexing many economists. Perhaps a paradigm shift is in order.

 

[TheProphet]

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Spaf,

I know 2005 will be hard mixed year.... my vision is till January now... and I am following the domehouse path... it seems we are into one now... that is why is so hard to predict day to day and week to week... Good Luck... :^

Leon

 

[Spaf]

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Thanks coolhand :^

Hey Leon! Domehouse Path. What is it??

 

[Guest]

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Hey Tom, it's days like this that I think you might want to start a "joke of the day" thread.........

:#..........sorry, can't see ya :shock:..............please!!! :#..................okay, here pull my finger :^.................no really :#..............okay, just a minute :zz.................dude, wake up :#..................can't you see I need my "power nap"! .....................:# :s.................hey, I have an idea:i.................:'too late...........good riddance, didn't like him anyway :x.............................:l

 

[coolhand]

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The "I" fund started out in positive territory today, but has dropped about .28% at the moment. Much less than "C" and "S". Weak dollar probably a big factor. Attached is latest info including Greenspans comments today regarding the dollar.

http://www.advfn.com/news_Forex---Euro-recovers-as-Greenspan-keeps-door-open-to-further-dollar-weakness_9450366.html

 

[tsptalk]

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Interesting coolhand. I'm amazed the dollar is not rebounding at all but I guess it's not a bad thing. I wish I heard Greenspan say that two months ago. Maybe he did and I just wasn't listening.

 

[coolhand]

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I don't think it's in the interest of the fed to always be transparent relative to what our global economic strategy is. I also don't think Greenspan has really addressed the issue directly, but John Snow has been speaking to it, although he's largely been ignored (like when he said our policy is for a "strong" dollar causing it to drop some more).

I also think that there is too much discussion (bullish and bearish) concerning the weak dollar to not keep track of the global perspective. As I'm sure you know, amajor shift in global market economicscanhave a majorimpact on just about all aspects of that market (not necessarily good either). The talk has been to allow the dollar to drop slowly so as not to make the market any more nervous :shock:than it already is (remember, precious metals are soaring right now). We are relying on a lot of foreign inflows to keep things moving in the current direction. But what if they decide to abandon that policy :shock:? I certainly would not be comfortable with buying dollars right now knowing how much more its value can fall. But that's the position many foreign goverments are in. Our interest rates will almost certainly rise if we don't continue to to attract that foreign currency.

With all this in mind, right now it appears that we are the consumers and most of the rest of the world is the suppliers. Sooooo we are spending money like crazy (think low interest rates) while much of the rest of the world is sitting on huge surpluses. That's the imbalace many economists are speaking about. Add to that the fact (according to media outlets) that our collective savings rate in this country is only .2% (not good). We are the ones keeping the economy going by continuing to spend.

I can't help but think we are walking a fine line.But hey, things may go very well as it all plays out, but the potential for market shock :sis there (actually,that's really nothing new).

Fornow all we can do is keep a close watch on the situation (think 500lb gorilla) while we try to make some money. :^

 

[Rod]

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Huge hit today, folks. Do not become discouraged. We'll make it back soon enough.

God Bless:^

 

[Spaf]

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M_M

your request! http://www.ahajokes.com/crt894.html

 

[Spaf]

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The word for the day is Ouch!

It appears that we have a secondary move in our bull market; The correction. But, it may not be over. Monday could be more, or possible dull. Corrections retrace (generally, as guidelines) 1/3 to 2/3 of the primary move.
Using the S&P. The bull market began about Oct 25 at 1090 and the primary lasted till about Nov 12 at 1184. Thats 94 points.Declines this week 1184-1170=24 points. Maybe we are out of the woods, maybe not.

The preceeding primary move Oct 25 - Nov 12 had several rapid and steep advances. Secondary moves are generally sharper than primary moves. Noting that the TSP system will take 1 - 2 days to effect transfers. It may have been nice to step aside for the correction, it may not have been practical.

Earlier this month the market hit some resistance in declines around 1164. So my plan (plan A) is to continue holding current allocations with a "stop" at 1164. Lower then 1164 I will be considering plan B.

Woops! I can't seem to find my copy of plan B, does anyone havea copy they could post?

Rgds Spaf

 

[smedlap]

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Ah Spaf, some nice posts. Reason the I fund lost less than the C and S is because the dollar declined against foreign exchangesso the impact was 50% of the C and S. Otherwise it would have been a match. Not withstanding, it was oil up tick once again that shocked the marketand gave Bulls an valid adjunct opportunity to drive the market back. Those on Wall Street that can quickly get out, also later quickly get back in.They trade in massive stock blocks. That's how they make money. The dollar is expected to continue to decline reaching maybe 1.35 Euro and plausibly 1 to 1 yen. But there are many currencies in the basket and as the dollar declines, foreign ecomnomies are competitively damaged. Sooner or later, the biggereconomies willattempt to step in to drive the dollar back up.The Asian countries have actively attempted to keep the dollar pegged against their currencies and are the ones buying our National debt (which in the end is our home garages). I think they now own 40% of the debt versus 5 % back in the 80s.

Tom did a good job leading us here, the consolidation came. I was in the I Fund so my loss was smaller, but acceptable. Iam only in the I because the market iswell forcasted bymany to goup thru mid Jan, oil remains the wild card and I fund has a slight exchange advantage. After Jan, one cannot be too risky because the playing field will become more challenged. Get your gains now and sit back later! :zzMy thoughts.

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

[Spaf]

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Smedlap have a good turkey day!

A lot of us will be on vacation next week. Including myself. So, posting may be sporadic and light. I don't have a internet connection at the lake, that's a future plan. I may be in computer withdrawl by the time I return.

Rgds Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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Viewers and members

The TSP Talk forums and this site is a good thing!

I do not agree with posting accounts, but I agree with just about every thing else.

I came to this site in August of this year, because my TSP account was losing money, it was down almost 5%, and I was getting close to retirement. Since joining this site, it has shown me that I was flat uninformed in handling my TSP account. The 2003 gains I made was from dumb luck, being in the S-fund. So I studied and educateded myself in the market, since then I have regained the 5% loss and advancedon a 5% gain. It has not been without learning on what is going on in investments, and themarket.

So I leave you with this thought. Buy and hold can work. Market timing can work. Even (I hate to say) day trading could work ( I haven'ttried it), BUT, the key to the sucess in investing is: education, being informed, and taking responsibility for your future. Otherwise it's no more than a blind leap! By ourselves we are novices, by a group we stay more informed.

Hey, thanks Tom!

Rgds. And, happy turkey day (except for turkeys). Spaf

 

[Guest]

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Spaf wrote:

So I leave you with this thought................

Spaf, are you saying you are leaving the forum?

 

[coolhand]

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Hope not :?. I enjoy your posts Spaf. I don't follow anyone lock-step, but I agree with your observations and market analysis. I also agree completely that we each have to take responsibility for our own accounts by learning all we can.

Speaking of which, I'm almost done reading "Guide to Smart Investing in the Internet Era" by Dave Kansas, editor-in-chief of the TheStreet.com. Easy to read and follow and reflects a lot of things I read in this forum. Next on the docket, "A Random WalkDown Wall Street" by Burton G. Malkiel. This is cool stuff. Armed with knowledge we can feel much more comfortable about any decisions we make as well as decide what strategy is right for us.

Keep in mind thatit's great when things go well, but missteps can and will be made by just about everyone who plays the market (especially if you're aggressive).Thekey though is how we handle those times. I have 15 - 18 years before retirement so I'mfairly aggressive in my approach. Missteps don't bother me (so far I haven't had an ugly one...knock, knock). But this forum is a great place to help shape your perspective as you learn about investing.

 

[Mike]

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I think I read in another thread that Spaf was going on vacation for Thanksgiving week. A lot of people use vacation time to lengthen the weekend, so I think that's what he's doing. :^

 

[smedlap]

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Coolhad, what's your position and why? Thanks