Market Talk

[coolhand]

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Spaf wrote:

While the probability of an election tie, always exists, and uncertainity of a winner, like 2000 is always a possibility. I think this scare has been inflated. States should have taken strides to improve voting devices. The election may be close. But I think we will see a definite weiner amoung the two canidates.

Point taken. Since I am from Florida (I'm thinking this makes me an expert in what can go wrong in voting ) I can tell you that we are still not without our voting problems. We have multiple voting mechanisms in place in different counties and glitches and recounts are already occuring. I also saw an article posted, I think on Fox news, this morning that listed all the problems various states were having. I was amazed at the extent of issues still occuring. in many, many states.In fact, Colorado may be delayed in reporting their results for days or even weeks according to the acticle.

Icannotpredict what will happen.But in measuring the risk associated with making a call on this election I opted to play both sides. It is, as you know, a day-to-day call. I wanted to be positioned to take advantage of any outcome.

I believe, as manydo, there will be rally at some point after the election. It could be hours from now or weeks. I hope it's sooner rather than later. I'm dying to get fully invested again in stocks.

I appreciate your comments and charts. They have helped me out quite a bit.

 

[clester]

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I believe the I fund gives you market exposure and is somewhat insulated from the election results. The returns have been great, but I expected at least a short term technical pullback. I think its coming , but when?

I also think the scare over the election is overblown. The economy, earnings, oil under $50, etc will cause the market to rally. I was worried about a terrorist attack and that didn't happen. My opinion is we're going to break out of this trading range soon and good returns for a while.

I hope!

 

[coolhand]

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I have yet to see anynews from any media outlet that this election is anything but tight at the moment. Including Fox.The fact that so many lawyers are involved just makes me that much more cautious. The market is saying the same thing. This afternoon, as soon as the first exit polls came out, the market gave up its gains in short order. Yeah, I would say that collectively the market is worried. I've looked at this decision sort of like a call on a roulette wheel. Red or black. Take your pick. I haven't been able to find a hint of direction.

I was invested in the "I" fund until early October. I am surprised to some extent atits recent gains. I have not been able to decide of late whether its a good place to be or not. Our weak dollar policy has helped to keep it moving upward along with Asia's willingness to accomodate our appetite for national debt as they are pegged to our dollar. I need to look at this a little deeper. This is a complicated market. Anyone else have any thoughts in this area?

While oil has seen a decline of up to 9% in the last couple weeks or so it is still in short supply and continues to be highly volatile in my opinion. I agree that any downward trend will have a positive impact on the market, but anything can happen in the short term.Check outCapital Spectator online for some real thought provokinganalysisin this area.

Terrorist attacks should always be a concern, but we haven't really had any since 2001.Its been threeyears. Seems tome we must havedone something rightto combat that threat. I would never make the mistake of underestimatingthe potential, but we have a trendthat indicates the threat has been mitigated.

I expect to jump back in (fully) to equities any day now as I do expect a rally regardless of who is elected (although the market may hesitate if Kerry is elected). I am less optimistic about 2005, but well just have to see how things unfold.

 

[tsptalk]

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clester wrote:

I was worried about a terrorist attack and that didn't happen.

That is a good point. There was a little election terrorist threat built into the price of stocks. Now that we have gotten past the election without an event,we may get a relief rally.

 

[Dakota]

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admin, What about the I fund do you think it will continue to fly

 

[Spaf]

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The I fund was tops in October! Will be tweeking my transfer allocation to 35-C, 50-S, and 15-I effective 11-3.

Double checked the tech analysis for the C-S-I funds. The MA and P-SAR indicated ok to go long with the funds. Stats ok for now!

 

[tsptalk]

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Dakota wrote:

admin, What about the I fund do you think it will continue to fly

The international marketsdon't really have any advantage over U.S. markets in my opinion right now. It's the U.S. dollar that will determine whether or not to play the I fund.The support has held lately on the dollar but who knows for how long.

It has been a good fund and I used to say "don't forget that I fund" but lately I have because of the dollar falling so much, so fast. So in the short term, if you think the dollar will go lower, play the I fund. If you think it will rebound, stay out.

Chart courtesy of [url]http://www.decisionpoint.com[/url]

 

[Spaf]

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Wednesday 11:30

The market looks like it will retain the bull, if S&P will advance through 1142, that figure or there about will confirm the bull market.
The new market if true may not be the same as 2003, it may have slower growth but never the less be a bull market. I see it as lasting until late January, and then we will need to re-evaluate conditions.
Its about time to change over terms. In bear markets we had declines and rallys. In bull markets we have advances and corrections. I'm superstitous about using words that can spook the market. But I sometimes use words like winners and weiners interchanceable for humor.
We have 5 TSP funds:
G fund = granny.
F fund = funkey
C fund = chad
S fund = super
I fund = ? What do we name the I fund. Any suggestions?
Does anyone have a different name for the funds?

Its time I think to come up with some fund allocations for a bull market with slower growth: How about G = 35%, S = 50%, and I = 15%for starters??????

 

[JerBer]

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How about "inconsistent" for the I fund? You can lose money even when the fund has made a gain... it's happened to me a few times!

JerBer

 

[Spaf]

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I like that!

 

[Guest]

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Call me crazy or zany, but I prpbably did the unthinkable.......I cashed in my S fund(changedbefore 12 noon, 3 Nov 04)"chips" and stashed the proceeds into the G fund. Of course after this brief period unconsciousness, I plan to get back in te market...honest.

Although I have doubts about this "relief rally". And when/if there is a dip in the next couple of days or so...I will be there. Assuming profit taking or ome other mystical action tomorrow causing a down tick inthe market may be the widow of opportunity for me. For now I will be happy with the fruits of my labor...and just wait patiently for the next "big" thing.

 

[Spaf]

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RR - Good evening!


Today the S&P closed out at 1143.20. This was 1.15 points higher than the previous high of 1142.05.
By the Dow Theory: We have ourselves another Bull market! :^


DT "When the previous peak is surpassed, the beginning of the second leg and a primary bull will be confirmed. The second stage of a primary bull market is usually the longest, and sees the longest advances in prices."

The Bull market started On August 13, 2004 at the lower low of 1060.72.

Naturally there will be some pull backs (corrections). DJTA (transportations) were up today (a good indication). There is not widespread belief that we are in a bull market. Most of the media and market talk is about rallys and bearish phrases. Oil closed at $50.88 and indicated that it will be a future problem until nations can get a cushion and controlled production.

Now is the time to be thinking and talking about allocations between thestock funds F - C - S - I.

I'll repeat myself with my current allocation of 35C, 50S, 15I. And ask the question of why not? Some of the members here are good with the math and numbers! So let us know about allocations between funds?

Rgds :! Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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My S&P Bear/Bull meter:

Bears 1060....|....|(1100)|....|....|1140 Bulls *

11/03 Market close 1143.20 *= Bull :^

 

[Mike]

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I'm hoping for a correction soon so I can buy back in and not get totally hosed on higher prices.

 

[Spaf]

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Mike - In a bull market the prices are always higher! The question is not to believe what I'm talking about, It's what the the market is saying! This is your delima. I only report the facts as I see them, the best I can. The rest is up to you!
My stats indicate a bull market now. The sentiment is bearish, and I expect it during this phase of the advance. Is the advance real? I think itis, based on "The Dow Theory". Could I be wrong? Yes. What else could I consider?


The delima? I'm not a market guru!



Be careful! Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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CAUTION!

When talking or listening to "members" on this board, please be careful! Some have different agendas, some are new, some old,and some whatever? Most ofus are government employees, doing our best each day, and not market gurus.
Consider what is said, and, with a grain of salt?
I love talking with you guys, yet we best be careful, even with each other!

Rgrds Spaf

 

[Rod]

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Spaf wrote:

CAUTION!

When talking or listening to "members" on this board, please be careful! Some have different agendas, some are new, some old,and some whatever? Most ofus are government employees, doing our best each day, and not market gurus.

Exactly! That's why I have the disclaimer I do in my account & account talk.

 

[TheProphet]

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I AM CERTAIN I WILL BE THE S&P ON THE 1200PERHAPS PLUS LEVELS NOW...

I AM 100 % S !!!

 

[Dakota]

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lkatteng wrote:

I AM CERTAIN I WILL SEE THE S&P AT 1200 PERHAPS PLUS LEVELS NOW...

I AM 100 % S !!!

I'm with you after today, I kind of spread it today 33s33c34I :^ Good luck I think I'm finally understanding some of the lingo and what higher highs and higher lows. tthere's a lot more understanding I've kinda caught hold of charts and such. Thanks as we say down here (ALL YA"LL)

 

[Spaf]

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Hey - Rod, LK, Dakota
You guys are gonna need a big bag for all that green stuff!