Market Talk

[Spaf]

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Market Movement


There are three types of market movements: a. Primary (month to years) called bull or bear markets. b. Secondary reactionary movements (weeks to months) and they move counter to the primary trend (bull markets=corrections, bear markets= rallies). and c. Daily fluctuations (hours, days or a week) and can move with or against the primary trend.
Sucess as I am told is to identify the primary trend and stay with it.

The 2003/4 bull market ended on March 5th at (using the S&P 500) 1163.23. Since then we have been in a bear market. On August 13th we recorded a lowest low of 1060.72.On October 7th we recorded a high of 1142.05. On October 25th we recorded a higher low of 1090.19. September 22nd to date has recorded market volatility that has clouded the issue. The issue is that October 29th ended at 1130.20 or 11.85 points below the previous high, or 11.85 points of what could be a bull market.

The market is moving, the presidential factor needs a closure. last weeek oil prices were at $51.78. Earnings so far were OK, with the majority above expectations.

So, we stand at the crossroads, and I will invest in what is conservatively optimistic. I will bet on the bulls, but stand clear of an outright claw by by bears (50% G fund - 50% CSI) and a quick transfer eather way.

Attachment chart. Be careful! Spaf

 

[Mike]

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Spaf, I heard reports that after-hours trading brought more gains in the market even after the bin Laden tape surfaced. Could this be the market saying "bin Laden lipping off = Bush re-election bid strengthened"? I think so.

Barring some major incident between now and the election, I don't expect much action in the market on Monday or Tuesday.Wednesday through Friday will decide our fates. Down = failure to break out of this sideways action that has frustrated us for months. Up = the long-awaited bull market. I'm betting on green. Others bailed last week and locked in their gains (they are probably the smart ones, but we'll just see about that - I've netted tiny gains since they left the market for G, so maybe that's an omen).

That's just my opinion - take it for the two cents that it's worth.

 

[Spaf]

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Mike - We are in a stage of careful analysis (the crossroad). Question: Are we in the quiet period, before an advance, to surpass the previous peak (1042), and confirm a bull? I don't have a good answer. We will just have to wait and see.

 

[smedlap]

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Spaf and Mike, nice to see your Sunday comments. Back from Phoenix to the Canadian border, slight tempreture change:shock:. Have to watch that heating oil price. For me so far, it has been a good year with TSP as I bet early on the dollar decline. That will change now. I've also beenwatching the impact of oil and projections are for oil to drop over the next 2 months to $40 plus a barrel, the ellimination or releaf of the surcharge on the consumer. Europe and Asia economies cannot withstand $55 a barrel. Now this soon $40 a barrelis a temporary 6 month price as we will be challenged again next summer and there on out. But what this means is good TSP returns premised upon sage analysis.This coupled with best 3 traditional market months ahead and a very sound industrial sector, abet limited hiring means I think positive effects. The election is interesting. I'll keep my vote to myself and just talk about Congress. Kerry wins, it is gridlock because the Republicans control the House and Senate. Bush wins, I project he pulls inunabeted spending because he has been so shamed. But he did create economic growth with AGreenspan's help. Best to study 10% unemployment in Europe, poor economic growth if one want's to talk about making a little less.

An earlier poster wrote - what a great country.:^ You better believe it. How would you like beheadings in our country by hidden terrorist or trying to invest inthe free Iranian stock market as a citizen. Don't be illusionedabout where and what soil the terrorist fight needs to be foughton. I also believe the future demand for oil will alter the world's consumer's spending habits, thus alter the traditional way we reactto resessions, predict business cycles and incur consumer debtwhich drives the market.

I project good stock market times for the next three months and think it best to have stayed in the market during these 2 voting days. We'll see as I am 100% S also as TSP Lead and agree with his logic. But best play is for all to vote regardless on Tuesday. In some countries they sadly lose their heads forsuch. :dah:And if you think it be for oil and they shouldn't be there- how about enduring European prices of better than $6 a gallon which would be $12 with IRAQ collaberation with Iran. We'd have a lot of chinco-chentos (500cc Fiats) on the road instead of all those 4by4s in Phoenix!

 

[tsptalk]

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FWIW, the 1st trading day in November is historically very strong. The strongest as far as average return goes (+.50%) and the 9th strongest of the year as far as being up 69% of the time.

The 3rdtrading day in November is up 70% of the time averaging (+.30%).

 

[Spaf]

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Thanks Tom - I'll put in a transfer to 70S and 30C for Monday, with cancellation or change depending on the AM indications.
smedlap - I started a thread of market talk on Sunday to try and give members as much of advance talk as possible. The TSP transfer time gap is a problem of sorts, compared to real time trades.
If we had a bull market then all of our talk could be very different.I'm a novice to the market, a government employee, but I'll fight back to a system that leaves our retirement up to harem scarem.

Another thing: "Catch up Contributions for TSP"
This could be good or bad, depending on where youare in retirement and your finances. This is something that has to be figured on each persons goals, time frame,and portfolio. Blindly, don't take this plunge, until You do the figures!

 

[Mike]

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Tom, how does that seasonality change for presidential election years?

 

[tsptalk]

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Mike wrote:

Tom, how does that seasonality change for presidential election years?

I don't know on a day by day basis, but the election day average chart looks good also. You can see itat the bottom of [url]www.tsptalk.com/comments.html[/url].

 

[tsptalk]

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CNBC just put up a stat, and I don't know if this is an average or prediction...

If Bush wins expect the Dow to be up 1% Wednesday

If Kerry wins, expect it to be down 1%

If there is no winner yet, expect a 2% drop.

Hmmm.

 

[Rod]

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tsptalk wrote:

CNBC just put up a stat, and I don't know if this is an average or prediction...

If Bush wins expect the Dow to be up 1% Wednesday

If Kerry wins, expect it to be down 1%

If there is no winner yet, expect a 2% drop.

Hmmm.

I expect no clear winner come Wednesday.

 

[Paul]

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A Stratfor Inc. Market Brief. This one is about the Dollar.

Paul

 

[smine]

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waited til today to move to G. looks like S gained .03, C nothing I .01. So I got away with last weeks gains including Friday and today before bailing! I'm happy....Will see what Tuesday brings but.....I'm happy...

 

[Spaf]

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Monday, the day before the election. Market gains were modest.

Rod was right in his last post. Market news was quoted as "The buying seen off this news did not last through the rest of the session as buyers remain troubled by tomorrow's Presidential election... Concerns that the victor would not be decided tomorrow night - with 2000's race in mind".

My Bear/Bull meter was at: Bears 1060....|....|....|.^.1140 Bulls.The Bull market is close, but still not there. If it advances through 1042 (the previous high)we should have it.

Toms reference to CNBC has some good market info. So I'll list it for reference:
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/briefings/StockTicker.asp

Be Careful! Spaf

 

[Mike]

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The market did what I expected! I can't believe it.

 

[coolhand]

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Tom - Agree wholeheartedly with your comments today. Anything can happen. Trying to have it both ways by staying 35% C and 65% G. Oil is giving the market some measure of boost in the face of election uncertainty. What a ride!!

In the short time I've been monitoring and posting to this board I've learned quite a bit. Thanks to all who provide input. It keeps me thinking. :^

 

[Spaf]

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While the probability of an election tie, always exists, and uncertainity of a winner, like 2000 is always a possibility. I think this scare has been inflated. States should have taken strides to improve voting devices. The election may be close. But I think we will see a definite weiner amoung the two canidates.

 

[puertorico]

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1-Bush winner = rally
2-Kerry Winner = rally
3-too tie and go to electoral vote"court" "not a winneryet= down

My number say 2 to 1 in favor of a rally,I'LLTAKE IT

I'WANT TO ROCK THE RALLY,ALL OR NOTHING ...

 

[Guest]

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Rally either way, nice article.

Election rally coming?

http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/02/commentary/column_hays/hays/index.htm

 

[Rod]

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retire rich wrote:

Rally either way, nice article.

Election rally coming?

http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/02/commentary/column_hays/hays/index.htm

Doubtfully.

 

[tsptalk]

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coolhand wrote:

In the short time I've been monitoring and posting to this board I've learned quite a bit. Thanks to all who provide input. It keeps me thinking. :^

Good to hear coolhand. Thanks for the feedback!