Market Talk

[Rod]

imported post

Spaf wrote:

Hey - Rod, LK, Dakota
You guys are gonna need a big bag for all that green stuff!

:l:!:l

It's nice to see!!!:^

 

[Spaf]

imported post

OK..... we have had a good week..... so far.

In the start of the 2003 Bull, in the first week the S&P shot up about 60 points and then corrected (declined) about 50% during the second week, before resuming the advance withgenerally smaller declines as the advance continued.

So far this Bull has shot up about 66 points in the S&P. The decline could come tomorrow, Monday, or just any day now. It has to slow down soon.

Choices: a. Hold...Ride through it, and come out the other side (maybe).
b. Transfer to the G fund Friday, and hope it will come early next week.
c. Transfer when ever it appears (with 1-2 day loss).

--------- ???????-------

 

[Mike]

imported post

I have to buy in on the correction, unless I feel like losing money on the next move (which I don't). Even in bull markets, the market doesn't go up every day. So, I play the waiting game.

 

[FundSurfer]

imported post

Spaf, my plan will be to watch for a couple lateral or down days in a row, then bail to G.

 

[Spaf]

imported post

FS - The market has been reacting fast and furious. A few laterals and a steady decline, Yea we can shift over. It's this 1-2 day transfer time thats against us, with big daily movements. I think I will play the AM market to watch for a correction (decline), if I miss it, well I'll just ride through it. If I try and guess it, well thats gambling, and I'd probably miss the biggest advance in market history.

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Attached is the S&P 500 chart for November 4, 2004.

Closing today the S&P recorded an advance to 1161.67. The previous high was 1142.05. This is The Dow Theory confirmation of a new Bull market.

 

[Dakota]

imported post

Spaf wrote:

Hey - Rod, LK, Dakota
You guys are gonna need a big bag for all that green stuff!

Thanks spaf

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Hey Dakota :^ I think we are headed for some green pastures, so maybe we should be talking about allocation of funds, to sort of tweek accounts. I'm not to sure about the I fund? The C and S funds seem to be the best for the long run. How do you feel about it?

 

[Mike]

imported post

The dollar just made a 9 year low. If that continues, the I fund will continue to climb.

C and S are cheaper though, so those are the funds to attack I think.

It's painful seeing all this green and not being in, but I have to be patient and wait for the correction. If I buy on emotion, I'll get burned.

 

[Dakota]

imported post

Spaf wrote:

Hey Dakota :^ I think we are headed for some green pastures, so maybe we should be talking about allocation of funds, to sort of tweek accounts. I'm not to sure about the I fund? The C and S funds seem to be the best for the long run. How do you feel about it?

Well the I fund gives better return percentage wise, I do look for a drawback its been hot latelyand a little higher than it has ever been, but we saw that with the others. I'll play the I fund about 25- 30%until I see it loose the first time and then I'm bailing to g,c,s untillI get some kind of sign. Currently 33c 34s 33I

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Dakota - See yah!
Mike - This is a Bull! Don't let it pass you by!
Careful my friends! :u Spaf

 

[Mike]

imported post

I know it's a bull, spaf. I'm saying that since I missed the initial big gains, I'm probably better off waiting for the inevitable correction to make my move back into stocks.

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Bull market allocations

Light - vs - Aggressive.

My 2 cents: The Bull market we have appears to be very aggressive in respect to past week advances. I think any corrections (declines) will be a match in spirit.

1st: Consider the amount of $ you are investing (risking) outside of G and F.
2nd: Consider the allocations between funds.

The first correction (decline) of the new Bull should be the biggest, based on the 2003 Bull.

My at risk max. for aggressive = 100% stocks.
light = 50% US +10% Intnl, stocks.

I just remembered, :i I met my goals for this year. Why risk it, if not necessary!



Therefore I will be changing allocations effective Friday COB for:
25% G....20% F....25% C....25% S....5% I



Careful out there!

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Mike wrote:

I know it's a bull, spaf. I'm saying that since I missed the initial big gains, I'm probably better off waiting for the inevitable correction to make my move back into stocks.

Mike -
From experience, the market tends to come down right after you can't stand the pain of being on the sidelines anymore. So, either get in now, or fight that that urge when it comes.

 

[Mike]

imported post

Yep Tom, that's what I've been thinking all week. I've been cursing a blue streak at myself every time I see all the green on the tickers - but my mind is screaming at me "the best things come to those who wait" - and so that's exactly what I'm doing (as illustrated by the tumbleweeds blowing through my account transactions page since Tuesday ).

As soon as I see the stock funds fall about halfway back to where they were on Tuesday, that's when I'll pull the trigger - but not one moment sooner. Notice that Spaf is trying to entice me with his bull market siren song... bad Spaf, bad!