Market Talk

[TheProphet]

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PATIENT IS A PROFITABLE VIRTUE !!!

I DO NOT TAKE LOSSES... The TSP will not give shares for free... losses are only if I let them take profit from me... History through out the year proof me that if I am patient and way... the market will rebounce up and let me get out with profit... I know I missed this time by not getting out on October the 6th... I now have to pay and go for the ride... down... up... I am certain the market will not stay low... and will not give share away for free... just has to wait... wait and wait... and learn my lesson...

:zz:zz:zz

 

[Spaf]

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LK
Thats a good rule! I like it. [Take no losses!]

 

[TheProphet]

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Sapf,

I know I am going down for awhile... but History had show me the market always comes back up... so I wait and wait and wait with PATIENCE till it comes back... I just enjoy the ride... down and up... I TAKE NO LOSSES... I loss only when I sell lower than what I paid for... PATIENCE IS A PROFITABLE VIRTUE... :^

Leon

 

[clester]

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The I fund finished flat for thur. The efa ticker had us down about .5% guess the weak dollar helped us again. The I fund still looks good to me, above the 50 day. Trending up. I'm getting nervous on the S fund though. I believe its right at the 50 day trending down. I may get out of it for the weekend. I'll wait and see how tomorow looks before noon.
Still 50% S 50% I. Good luck everyone.

 

[Spaf]

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Hi clester, welcome!

Sentiment check:
I was checking the CBS MarketWatch talk. What I noticed was that earning reports looked mixed. Crude closed at $54.76. One comment, that it could peak at $60-70, and aoil thrust could get nasty. For calmness oil needed to be around $41. The dollar was depreciating. And, any election upswing was clouded with uncertainty.
Stats check:
All TSP stock funds prices have activated P-SAR stops. The F fund could break free as it has been increasing the last 5 days.
Allocation:
90% G, 10% F.

Careful!

 

[Mike]

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Spaf - my balance is small compared to the vast majority here and I'm a very long way from retirement, so I can afford to roll the dice on these things.

30% G is about as cautious as I'll ever get, and the fact I have that much there right now should tell you something (also, every new allocation is being dumped 100% in the G fund).

Unlike the last cycle, I'll have a fair-sized amount todive in withwhen it bottoms out... plus I'm still invested enough to catch any surprise rally (though I don't believe one is coming with the oil price surging as it is).

 

[Spaf]

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Mike - I can retire when ever I like. And I might be playing with a few more $, and in other investments.
I respect your position. Lets go for it!

:^

 

[Dakota]

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spaf, what part of oklahoma

 

[Spaf]

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Dakota - Well your gonna get a weird answer:
I work out of Oklahoma City, we are leasing a temporary residence in Edmond Oklahoma (selling our acreage (small farm) in Oklahoma County), but my permanent residence is in McIntosh County by Lake Eufaula Oklahoma, with a PO Box in Checotah Oklahoma. Weird answer!
This is the way my (near) future retirement has worked out.

 

[Dakota]

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I live in sterling and work for dod at the reynolds army hospital wg-11 Fort sill

 

[Spaf]

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Hey Dakota - I'm in the DOL - OSHA phone directory 405-278-9560 x 241.

 

[Dakota]

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580-365-4012 home mostly day

580-458-2194 work mostly evenings and mids

 

[Spaf]

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Back to TSP
Declines appears to be the sentiment. Stats appear to be a short (sell). And I (my opinion) think the G fund (maybe the F fund, lightly)is the safe position, right now.
Hopefully the decline will be broken and reallocations (prices) can return profits. But where the bottom is at, is anyones guess! Maybe tommorrow, maybe not, sentiments andstatsdo not seem to favor tomorrow(s), so I'll stay on the sidelines!

Be careful out there?

 

[Mike]

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In spite of my own negative sentiment, I'm not lightening any more on the stocks. All that will do is lock in losses, and there's no sense in doing that. I'm gonna ride this thing out and move all-in when I believe I see a bottom... it'll be nice to have 30% of my holdings consisting of very cheap shares for a change. :^

I'll just not say anything about the other 70% - that part is just too depressing right now.

 

[Guest]

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lkatteng wrote:

PATIENT IS A PROFITABLE VIRTUE !!!

I DO NOT TAKE LOSSES... The TSP will not give shares for free... losses are only if I let them take profit from me... History through out the year proof me that if I am patient and way... the market will rebounce up and let me get out with profit... I know I missed this time by not getting out on October the 6th... I now have to pay and go for the ride... down... up... I am certain the market will not stay low... and will not give share away for free... just has to wait... wait and wait... and learn my lesson...

:zz:zz:zz

That is sort of what my "old" system did, it set pre-determined buy and sell prices and you just waited for the fund prices to come to you. However, I much prefer selling and buying at a lower price for bigger gains than waiting for them to come back up to me.

 

[Dakota]

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just went back to moderate for monday 25 accross(except f). Maybe monday going evening going straight 100%c. got a funny feeling s and I are pulling back. maybe feel it out for a few days before I make any big unrational move. Dont know much about indicators. But I do know I enjoy reading al ya'lls theories, ideas, and speculations. Good luck Spaf, Give me a call. I put my number for the world to see, but thats the way the gov. is. numbers not names. give me a call

 

[Spaf]

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Prior Market Cycles

This thread is an illustration of the prior market cycles. Iam not making a prediction, less no one be led astray by a changing market. The numbers are not exact. I extracted them from BigCharts, using the S&P index.

Maybe cycle 4 will follow the others, maybe it will be completely different. Something to talk about?

Cycle 1 March 1163H 1087L 1151H lasted 28 days
Cycle 2 April-May 1146H 1076L 1142H lasted 40 days
Cycle 3 July-August 1144H 1060L 1129H lasted 44 days
Cycle 4 Oct- 1142H

 

[Spaf]

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Weak (week) ending
Stock funds in TSP have been on a Cycle-coaster since Feburary, trending gradually downward. We may be in another cycle down. Safe funds like G & F appear to be the best resting place for now, especially noting the recent violatility of the ups and downs.
I will be moving, and redoing my computer from DSL to Cox cable, expecting some down time to re-install hardware, software, etc.
Will leave you with the S&P chart of where we stood as of COB Friday, with the moving average of 20 days and the P-SAR plotted, for your reference.
Have a good weekend, and see you later!

 

[TheProphet]

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Spaf,

You are right... G is the best fund right now... but if I move from S I will loose... if I wait few weeks... I will profit... I will wait... PATIENT IS A PROFITABLE VIRTUE...

Leon

 

[VictorPR]

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I agreed with Leon. I have learned that the market works in cycles and I have lost alot more because I tried to cut my loosesby moving to Gand I ended up lossing more. I will hold my ground and see what happens. Currently C , S and I.