Market Talk

[Mike]

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The trade deficit widened, and the dollar strengthened. :shock:

Our interest rates / returns on bonds are higher than elsewhere, though. Japan's interest rate is 0, and the eurozone is sitting at 2%, I think. So, foreigners buy up our bonds and prop up our currency, knowing the fed will keep hiking rates a little while longer.

I'd be very surprised if the dollar didn't start dropping in earnest by early '06. The tightening should be nearing an end at that point, and foreign countries' interest rates should start to creep up relative to ours - making our t-bills less attractive / currency weaker.

Technical people - where is our next line of resistance? The 52 week high? Or somewhere else?

 

[robo]

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Market is really trying to break-thru the 1230 resistance level.... If it breaks thru and holds we could be on the way to 1245....Oil is still sliding and the dollar is going up.... Looks like some more short covering by those betting on a pullback, so this could be a pretty good day!!!!

Do we still get the rally tomorrow Tom mentioned, or is this it today?


Mike wrote:

where is our next line of resistance? The 52 week high? Or somewhere else?

We could take a run at the 52 week hightomorrow, if we hold above the 1230 level.... { 1245 or BUST!!!! }

 

[robo]

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Some comments from a Tech:

It is promising to see the one-year-old downtrend line penetrated at last. As you look at the chart notice that each time the indicator exceeded 80% in the past two years, the market continued the rally that got it there for at least a week, and in some cases it continued for a month or more. The next five days will be critical for the indicator since a downturn by the S&P will drive it down before it reaches 80%.

This chart of NASDAQ provides a clear example of where we are. Even though it is slightly ahead of the other two, all three major indices look pretty much alike. The NASDAQ is poised just below important resistance between 2178 and 2182. Beyond that lies the high at 2216.81, which is the only obstacle between it and a new 4-1/2 year high.

 

[robo]

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Some closing comments from a Tech:

The economic news is not that great, but oil is down and Mich Consumer Confidence is up. This could be the year-end rally and blow-off top before the next round of selling. Do these markets ever have any logic? If they do, it may not be apparent to the most logical among us. Trend following usually ignores logic and buys the breakout and sells the breakdown.

The NDX has broken above its resistance at 1635 and is at a new high for the year.The SPX has broken above resistance at 1225, but still has some room to move to get to its 1245 high for the year.

 

[robo]

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Selling into the close, so the profit taking continues..... Some Tech's are still concerned; see comments below. Two steps forward and only one step back and we will continue to climb the wall of worry!

Update: 3:45 EST

It's possible that things will improve dramatically between now and the close, but I would need A/D of about 1500+ to feel comfortable with this move. As it stands,we have about 600. There is always tomorrow and perhaps things will get fixed by then!

If we don't get an improvement in the A/D by tomorrow, we'll be vulnerable to at least a good pull-back.

 

[The_Technician]

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Gee what gives???????:%

With this kind of market, any bets are off.....



:dude:

 

[nnuut]

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Tired of waitin'! Took the plunge. Think that BULL maybe ready to teach that midget BEAR Bullfighter a lesson!!!

http://www.thehumorarchives.com/humor/0001022.html:^

NNUUT

 

[Soldat]

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It looks like this last week WAS the lull, and here IS the rally, in our face! BULLS ON THE LOOSE!

 

[robo]

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Technician,

Crazy market!!! We just have to follow the trend, and FORGET the technicals!!!!

Do we test 1245 tomorrow or pullback time, COIN TOSS!!!! What say you Skip?

Short term the 1234 level is still resistance and 1218 +/- support.

 

[Soldat]

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well, TSP is closed so you wont be pulling back from the C fund. The bulls are loose, the bears are hibernating, theres no where to hide.

 

[robo]

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Mike wrote:

I'd be very surprised if the dollar didn't start dropping in earnest by early '06.

The USD getting close to 92.00, up another +0.57..... Any thoughts on how high she might go before the end of the year or a pullback????

 

[Soldat]

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look at the last couple years, the market bombs after the 28-30th

 

[learning]

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Santa likes to hunt bear in the winter. Nice tracks to follow in the snow and a warm blanket on the bed. Hmmm. Santa rally. "Show Me The Money"

 

[Skip]

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Robo..

Nice afternoon rally.. Seems like the market knows tsp deadline is 12:00 hehe...

Market closed above and also took out the close for 10/3 that was our ceiling... we closed today 1230.96 or 1231... high of 1232.41 but not the high for 10/3 1233.34
but looking at last years Oct to dec 31 run was 125 points that would give us a run to 1294 fron the low this Oct.... I think we are stronger this year... GM Ford are killing us
now... If it was not for them where would the sp be ? up more for sure....
Holding strong 100% in stocks till I see Santa.... 45c45s10i

Skip

add in 5% for cpi = 1300.25 :^

 

[Skip]

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Soldat wrote:

look at the last couple years, the market bombs after the 28-30th

Last year we add 38.1 points!! nov 30 1173.82 to dec 31st 1211.92 :^

Skip

 

[Skip]

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Looking bad for the bears...
Skip

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Break Through 10,600[/font] [font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Dow rallies through key 10,600 level, holds at highs.[/font] [font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]
From prior commentary, "...The Dow is clearly gearing up for a huge move, as illustrated by the behavior beneath the 10,600 level...A solid upside break through 10,600 will likely set off a big near-term rally..." [/font] [font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow opened the session relatively weak this morning, as the index tested the 10,520 for the fourth straight session, seen in the 5 and 15 Minute Charts. The index got a healthy bounce off this level and eventually reeled off a solid 135 point rally after breaking though the key 10,600 resistance level, seen in the Daily and 60 Minute Charts. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow closed the day higher by 94 points and looks to be setting up for a big upside move in the market. If the Dow can continue holding above 10,600, we could see a test of the August highs at 10,720 in no time. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The index should continue to be considered bullish in the medium term, especially if it continues to hold above 10,500. Only a break through this level will cause a major sell-off. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Short Term Dow [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow closed the day above the 10,600 resistance level, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch for strength above this level tomorrow morning, unless a violation occurs. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Medium Term Dow [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]In the medium term, we entered Longs at 10,600 today and are still in the trade. We currently have 45 points in the trade and will hold stops at the entry for tomorrow's market. We will want to stay Long above 10,675, but will hold off on Shorts, unless 10,500 is crossed to the downside; using 20 point stops. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]NASDAQ & S&P [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The NASDAQ and S&P each rallied from the lows of the session to end the day at the highs of the past of the past month. Look for a continuation pattern to indicate continued strength is likely. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Summary [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow ended the day at the highs of the session after blasting through the major 10,600 resistance level. As we mentioned before, this level was the only thing holding the Dow back from a major rally. If the index can continue to hold above this zone, we could see quite a lift off. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading! [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com [/font]

 

[Soldat]

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What do you guys think of the I fund this year?

Last yea Nov 1, 2004 was 13.98/share and Dec 31, was 15.48/share. 2003 is was 11.72 to 12.90/share for the same dates. Any thoughts?

 

[The_Technician]

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Well over the last several days I've had my butt kicked around a bit....only plus sign on this recent market move is

The Accumulation is moving to the positive side of things....I'm sure everyone will be happy about that....

Now I got to go and get the bruises healed.....



:^

 

[Soldat]

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Well,

Oct 22, 2004 --11.63--12.90--13.75 for, C,S,I

Nov 10, 2004 --12.36--13.69--14.35

Nov 30, 2004 --12.49--14.14--14.83

Dec 30, 2004 --12.93--14.75--15.47


There was little or no breathing last year, the gains held and after Oct 22, it was rally all they way up to the 30/31st of Dec. Two whole dollars on the I fund! Sitting pretty, I swear its those spanish bulls. GIVE EM THE HORN!!

 

[robo]

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Soldat wrote:

What do you guys think of the I fund this year?

So goes the US market, the internationalmarket will follow....Who wins the race will be determined by theeffects of the dollar.... The dollar has to fall, but when is the question? If your going to play 50% to 100% in the I Fund as some do, it can give you big gains or big loses due to dollar swings... Good investing however you play it!!!!


It's always good to have a mix! If you look at the L Fund percentages it gives you a guideline for your own mix... I personnal don't use the L Fund, butit was put together by professional investors.

I Fund percentages in L Funds: 2040=25% 2030=21% 2020=19% 2010=15%

Skip and Spaf have a very nice mix for diversification in their asset allocation of stocks. Check out their current allocation... C / S / I