Market Talk

[robo]

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Some comments from a Tech:

There have been only two times in the last three years when the RSI reached 85% or above, and both of them occurred at the start of a major market spurts. That may be the outcome of the present rally, and we only have to wait a few days to find out.

The downtrend line drawn from the S&P 500 high for the year intersects today at 1235, just 10 points below it. With today being a partial holiday in observance of Veterans' Day, it is likely that volume will be low and the index will only brush the downtrend line before closing below it. However, the downtrend line will provide a good challenge for the market next week.

The Dow managed to close above its downtrend line at 10640, and only several closes between 10682 and 10705 offer significant resistance between it and its high for the year at 10940. A pullback today with a close just above the downtrend line is a likely outcome, which will be followed by another attempt at a new high next week.

The Dow managed to close above its downtrend line at 10640, and only several closes between 10682 and 10705 offer significant resistance between it and its high for the year at 10940. A pullback today with a close just above the downtrend line is a likely outcome, which will be followed by another attempt at a new high next week.

The chart below indicates Tom's pullback could come soon!!!

Once again the survey of the members of the American Association of Independent Investors (AAII) took place on a day when the market was strong. Consequently the market strength is reflected in the outcome of the survey, which shows that over 70% of the voters were bullish. Since this is a contrary indicator, one has to be concerned that we are closer to the end of the rally than to its beginning.

 

[Birchtree]

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Robo,

Nice graphs. During the last two years of base on base consolidation the Birch has been patiently building his value ride through dollar cost averaging of his contribution allocations. Next year will be the same sequence. Sometimes it takes awhile to build an Ark. The C fund is unexciting and seldom shows flair - but when her turn arrives she can be down right sexy. If I can make another $.30 on the C fund for this year I'm satisfied and will look forward to 2006. Today should be a good investing day.

 

[Soldat]

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Not that anyone can do anything today, but the BULL IS LOOSE!

 

[robo]

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Birchtree,

As the shark pointed out in his comments; " The institutions are finally caving to the performance anxiety that has been building." Looks like Big Caps are going to lead for awhile.... Once you reach Critical Mass are you going to reduce your expouse to stocks.... I was thinking that was when you hit a Million.... Any thoughts on your asset allocation once you get there.... I'm in my 50's and getting close to making those decisions?

 

[robo]

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Comments from a fellow investor:

Interested in what Yale Hirsch of the famous 'Stock Trader's Alamanac'
calls 'The Turkey Shoot'? According to Hirsch, be invested the day before
and after Thanksgiving. These two days have been consistent gainers for
stocks without a loss since the end of WWII.

 

[Birchtree]

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Robo,

I'll be 59 in July'06 - I'm in the game for life. My large account will most likely breech the $1M mark before the end of the year and that will not be critical mass, especially if we are now entering a stage 3 bull market move - there is a better than even chance that the Dow Industrials will make new all time highs by the end of the year, joining the Dow Transports. Once I hit the $1M mark I receive 400 free trades - I plan to do a lot of buying in 2006 - building income. I had 300 free trades available this year and ended up using only 46. So I have some catching up to do. Ever mindful of my friends at the IRS - I will build some tax loss carryforwards in Jan'06 so I won't be penalized with capital gain taxes at the end of the year '06.

My TSP account will continue to receive constant watering and I'll just watch it grow until the C fund bumps up against $17.00 - then we start a new cycle. Perhaps small prudent moves to the G fund over the following 12 months up to $18.00 - no need to be greedy.

At any rate, micromanaging my TSP account at this stage could definitely be dangerous to my financial health - I'll just be patient. Take care.

Dennis

 

[robo]

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Birchtree,

Thanks for your comments!!! Using the TSP calutalor I can hit 1 Million at age 62, if I can average a 7% return over the nextfew years.... Thats adding all of mine and my wife's accouts combined.... That also includes the 20k each in 401k's until retirement...I'm thinking 70% fixed income and 30% equities once Iretire.. I'm very fortunate to be a retired Master Sergeant from the army..... Provides me with some extra income, andremoves some of the pressueand worryabout medical insurance.... Thanks again and have a Great Weekend!!!!

 

[robo]

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Gas prices fall below $2.00 at one El Paso station...Saw this in the paper today....



1.99 a gallon at Costco!!

 

[Birchtree]

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Robo,

Hooah, have you contemplated how during your next retirement how you will keep your tax situation reduced? That's one of my primary objectives - I want to keep as much of my income as I'm allowed. That military pension unfortunately already puts you at a certain level that you can't control per AGI. Tsp will provide some degree of continued deferral because you can control the distribution - then there is social security which can be postponed - and your defined benefit plan along with the spouses will come automatically. We will all face the same type of problem - how much of a return do we want Uncle to take. Just thought I'd inquire.

Dennis

 

[robo]

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Birchtree,

I'm just going to have to pay.... I'm very grateful to have been given the opportunities I have had in my life so far.... My retirement income, including my wife's and my social security should be around 6K a month or more... My wife's social security will be more than mine.... She has had a very good career and made pretty good money... She is definitely a over achiever,and I don't spend near that much now.... My house is clear, I'm debt free except for normal living costs, ( Food taxes etc..) health ok, so life is good..... I will have a hard time spending it, but I'm going to take a shot at it before I'm to old to enjoy it... The interest income alone at 5% could be around 50k a year..... So I don't mind helping out Uncle Sam.... I don't mind paying my share, but the tax laws in this country need some work... Some say I save to much, but when you file standard deduction it's nice to max out 401k's and save some tax dollars....I'm also not the type to spend just to spend. So the result isI save to much.....Combined 40k in 401k's next year will help save the tax dollars now, but Uncle Sugar will get it back soon.....My retirement income could change, never know what will happen withsocial security!!!!

I likecomments about moneyby William Crapo Durant, "Money is only loaned to man; he comes into the world with nothing; and he leaves with nothing."

"He that makes money before he gets wit, will be but a short while the master of it."

Thomas Fuller

Looks like we have some wit Birchtree.....



Gerald Loeb makes a good point about leaving to much wealth to your heirs...

" Don't be overly concerned about your heirs. Usually, unearned funds do them more harm than good."

Planning on retirement at 60-62, and hopefully having some fun as long as my health holds up!!!

 

[smine]

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Who knows how the shares ended? since TSP doesn't work? I think we should tell TSP that if the market is open they need to work!

 

[James48843]

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End of day indeix results were this:

S&P 500 ( C fund) = up + 0.31%

Wilshire small cap 4500 ( S fund) = up + 0.34%

Morgan International Index ( I fund) = up + 0.53%


So it was a winner on all three. You'd have to do the math to get close numbers to share prices- although the TSP funds are supposed to track the indexes, they sometimes miss the index numbers by a few fractions (costs of doing business).

Share prices will be pretty dog gone close to those numbers though.

 

[Skip]

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robo wrote:

Gas prices fall below $2.00 at one El Paso station...Saw this in the paper today....



1.99 a gallon at Costco!!

We went from 2.01 to 2.25 Wedesday with the gas futures going down... now 2.19 in cincinnati !!! I think the bombing scared the distubors as that was a 24 cent rise in a day.. !!! Just no reason for that.
Skip

Longs are killing the shorts a day at a time... Monday might be a run.... Look out 10700 DOW !!!!:^

 

[Birchtree]

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Skip,

I'm sure you mean something like look out for Dow 11,700 as a new all time high. I think this momentum will get us there before yearend.

 

[blueskys4ever]

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James48843 wrote:

End of day indeix results were this:

S&P 500 ( C fund) = up + 0.31%

Wilshire small cap 4500 ( S fund) = up + 0.34%

Morgan International Index ( I fund) = up + 0.53%


So it was a winner on all three. You'd have to do the math to get close numbers to share prices- although the TSP funds are supposed to track the indexes, they sometimes miss the index numbers by a few fractions (costs of doing business).

Share prices will be pretty dog gone close to those numbers though.

I have read fine print that says the TSP managers do not have to invest our capital in 100 percent of the indexs. Thus, this may account for the slight deviation of returns. Any index fund should have low expenses due to the fact the managers dont have to waste time picking the stocks. Its a no brainer!

 

[robo]

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Skip wrote:

Longs are killing the shorts a day at a time... Monday might be a run.... Look out 10700 DOW !!!!:^

I think there is a good chance of a pullback next week, and after that itshould kick-off the test and break-out of the 1245 level.... It could give those on the sidelines one morechance to put some additional money in stock... Of course I could be wrong and the market could rally without the pullback, but the technicals are shouting over bought...

So if your long and we get a pullback,don't get shaken out, and those in cash buy stock!!!!!

 

[Soldat]

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There will be no pullback until January

 

[Show-me]

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smine wrote:

Who knows how the shares ended? since TSP doesn't work? I think we should tell TSP that if the market is open they need to work!

Your not the only one that feels that way!

 

[vectorman]

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During last years' Santa Claus rally, mostpull backs did not last long. For example, a nice pull back on Nov 19th, friday before Thanksgiving week, was met with buying onMonday, Nov 22. Several days into Dec another pull back did not last long. This year could be different, everyone looking for a repeat of Nov and Dec of last year, but marketcanat times be very elusive. We had a very nice rally this summer that caught many off guard. Learned from Tom last year that in a good Bull market most good pull backs are usually jumped upon by anxious buyers trying to get back on the Bull train.

 

[vectorman]

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James48843 wrote:

End of day indeix results were this:

S&P 500 ( C fund) = up + 0.31%

Wilshire small cap 4500 ( S fund) = up + 0.34%

Morgan International Index ( I fund) = up + 0.53%


So it was a winner on all three. You'd have to do the math to get close numbers to share prices- although the TSP funds are supposed to track the indexes, they sometimes miss the index numbers by a few fractions (costs of doing business).

Share prices will be pretty dog gone close to those numbers though.

EAFE ( I fund ): up .663 estimate- 12-14 cents/share

S&P ( C fund ): up 3.76ptsest- 5 cents/share

Wilshire 4500 ( S fund ): est-5 cents/share