Market Talk

[vectorman]

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Last glimmer of hope. Still alittle green to be seen.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=DJTA

 

[robo]

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LOOKS LIKE A ANOTHER YAWNER!!!!!!UP,DOWN,UP,DOWN, CONSOLIDATION TIME.I DON'T CARE AS LONG AS THE 1200 SUPPORT HOLDS....



Show-me,

Don't get me wrong, nothing wrong with the I Fund..... It's the dollar I'm concered about..... I think the dollar will pullback , but the question is when? I will be watching it and the I Fund for a short term plays only.... I just have bad luck with the dollar when I get in the I Fund.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000082&sid=axgvBCYd55Mg

The next chart shows just the S&P 500 and the same bright blue line representing the SMI in the chart above. In eight years the indicator has completed just one cycle. We're now in the first half of the second cycle, and it is clear that the length of the cycle varies as well as its amplitude.

With an indicator that has such a long cycle we have insufficient data to reach a reliable conclusion. However, looking at chart below it is difficult to ignore the implications either. So while I will continue to follow our shorter-term indicators, I will keep a watchful eye on the possibility of a major decline developing as the Smart Money Indicator reaches new lows.

 

[vectorman]

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Could effect the dollar tomorrow 11/10/05:

Import & Export prices, International Trade info at 8:30am est.

Other news:

Jobless claims at 8:30am and Consumer Sentiment at 9:45am.

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

Stock market open on friday, bond market close, TSP may be close friday.

 

[The_Technician]

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Seems to be a lot of stress guessing the market direction today.....:?

Could be we're heading for 1190-1180 on the S&P for a short term.....looking for about 7% drop on the S fund if we do so....but I wouldn't say for sure it will happen, but it has its possibilities right now.......licking my chops right now....

Don't freak out.....:shock:...just play the game.....

:^

 

[cowboy]

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LOL!!! Looks like you're going to have to lick your chops a while longer Techy! Maybe next week. All those G boysare nervous and want to get in!!The stew is startin to bubble and the G men are getting excited ! Santa is coming!! Meanwhile the I fund lies like a sleeping dog.

 

[vectorman]

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It would be great if the DJIA can close above 10,600 and the S&P above 1224. DJTA is at another record high.:^

 

[Spaf]

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It's the weather!

Bears can't hide! Leaves are falling! No snow! Spaf

 

[vectorman]

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cowboy wrote:

LOL!!! Looks like you're going to have to lick your chops a while longer Techy! Maybe next week. All those G boysare nervous and want to get in!!The stew is startin to bubble and the G men are getting excited ! Santa is coming!! Meanwhile the I fund lies like a sleeping dog.

Grab your six shooter cowboy, bar the doors, we have to keep the bears out if we want this rally to count. I look for the C & Sfund to give that I fund dog a good kick and get him up for a good old fashion bear hunt!!!

 

[bkrownd]

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Spaf wrote:

It's the weather!

Bears can't hide! Leaves are falling! No snow! Spaf

Did somebody say snow?

 

[robo]

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Tom has beenpointing out in his comments a pullback is due, I'm seeing more of this in the Technicals.... I'm not selling on pullbacks just adding more shares....

The Shark wrote:

TSP members may consider utilizing this weakness to increase their positions.

Good advice I think!!!!! I know Tom will join the party...



Some comments from a Tech:

Update 3:15 EST

The market is fulfilling my expectation of another small rally.Things are getting a little volatile, which is the sign of a top forming and distribution taking place, i.e. more and more people selling into the rally.

However, prices have a perverted way of giving you a number of false starts before a genuine reversal finally occurs, and then it comes all at once. Therefore, slightly higher prices are possible. QQQQ 40.50 and SPX 1228 could still be reached. It does not HAVE to happen, but it would be nice if it did.

That would be the top parameter. The lower boundary can be raised by a couple of points to 1216/17.

Final waves of a move can take many forms, and VST waves frequently lack that last (5th) wave. Since we are now doing wave 3 (of 5), it could be the top when complete, ... or, we could continue this pattern of top-formation for another couple of days. You'll know when they pull the plug!

As far as the downside target is concerned, right now it looks like about a 35 points retrenchment, but since the top is not in just yet, this could expand.

Technician wrote:

Don't freak out.....:shock:...just play the game.....

Tech above thinks we are stating a wave 4...... The good news is after a wave 4 we start a wave 5 and should try and test 1245 in that wave.... He agrees with your 1190 support.... I hope he is incorrect, but pullbacks are good going forward to get the marketmoving again....

As Birchtree pointed out," If you don't hit the exact bottom, will it matter at the end of December when we are at 1368 on SPX? It's time to pull the trigger or light the fuse."

 

[robo]

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I have this problem, missing the best days!!!!

Missing even a few days of a market turnaround can have a significant effect on your returns. For example, if you invested a hypothetical $10,000 in the S&P 500 from June 1990 to June 2005 and didn’t touch it, the $10,000 would have grown to $45,635. If you missed even the 10 best days of the stock market during that 15-year period, your investment would have grown to only $28,431. And if you missed the stock market’s best 50 days, your $10,000 investment would have been worth $7,946[suP]1[/suP].

 

[Greg]

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The I-fund went down .362% today; this is reasonable.
Oct 28th was the last day that FRTIB fudged the I-fund price.

 

[tsptalk]

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robo wrote:

I have this problem, missing the best days!!!!

Missing even a few days of a market turnaround can have a significant effect on your returns. For example, if you invested a hypothetical $10,000 in the S&P 500 from June 1990 to June 2005 and didn’t touch it, the $10,000 would have grown to $45,635. If you missed even the 10 best days of the stock market during that 15-year period, your investment would have grown to only $28,431. And if you missed the stock market’s best 50 days, your $10,000 investment would have been worth $7,946[suP]1[/suP].

I always hear about this theory but they never mention what happenedif you missed theworst days.

 

[Spaf]

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You would still get your penny! :u The answer is ?

 

[bkrownd]

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Greg wrote:

The I-fund went down .362% today; this is reasonable.
Oct 28th was the last day that FRTIB fudged the I-fund price.

Huh, my international fund went up. Just more proof we're merely a bizarre alien experiment, and the rats are actually in control.

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Nov. 09, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Market cuts advance!

Elsewhere:...... Kingdom ally assaulted.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at...................1220.65, up +2.06
CMF (money flow) at.....+0.144, up
RSI (strength) at...........58.1, up
MACD (trend)....bullish
S-STO (signal)...------
P-SAR (signal)...bullish
ROC (change)...bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............58.93, dn -0.78

Tea Leaves:...................Green.


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100% stox
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1211, Trail: 1199.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[tsptalk]

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tsptalk wrote:

robo wrote:

I have this problem, missing the best days!!!!

Missing even a few days of a market turnaround can have a significant effect on your returns. For example, if you invested a hypothetical $10,000 in the S&P 500 from June 1990 to June 2005 and didn’t touch it, the $10,000 would have grown to $45,635. If you missed even the 10 best days of the stock market during that 15-year period, your investment would have grown to only $28,431. And if you missed the stock market’s best 50 days, your $10,000 investment would have been worth $7,946[suP]1[/suP].

I always hear about this theory but they never mention what happenedif you missed theworst days.

So I did some research. It turns out that missing the worst days is the key and has more of an impact than missing the the best days. Missing both works well also.

From http://www.fpanet.org/journal/BetweenTheIssues/Contributions/050105A.cfm:

• The buy-and-hold return for this 15-year period was 17.89 percent—one of the most bullish periods in market history.
  
  
• As expected, missing the best days lowered returns, and missing just 40 of the best days over this 15-year period cut returns nearly in half. (See Table 2.)
  
  
• Similarly, missing the worst days has the expected result of increasing returns substantially. As shown in Table 3, no surprises except perhaps the magnitude of improvement (77 percent) for missing the 40 worst days.
  
  
• Now we come to what may be the heart of the matter. What if we were to miss both the best days and the worst days?
• The payoff for missing both is a remarkably consistent result. Whereas missing just the best or worst had a magnified impact as the number of days increased, missing both produces a consistent return of approximately 20 percent, as shown in Table 4.
  
  
• Not only does missing both result in superior returns—imagine the knock-off benefits from lower volatility, especially on client psychology. As many advisors have learned since the 2000–02 bear market, it’s one thing to encourage clients to stay the course when markets are trending steadily higher, quite another when bear markets rapidly erode the gains from years of careful saving and investing. In 30 months the 2000–02 bear market erased half of the market gains of the previous 26 years—since 1974.

 

[Spaf]

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Tom, the whole article was good!

 

[JOVARN]

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The headlines in my morning paper (the Palm Beach post) read: Jordan bombings erode stock rally.

I want to take you higher was a popular song way back when, and I believe it's being played by the stock market at this time. (BUT WHAT DO I KNOW)I believe any dip will be short lived; I plan to ride out the knee jerk reactions investor's have to what the world has to offer for now anyway.

For the next fewmonths my plan is to stick with 50%S 30%C and 20% I . I may get out of I and put that money to better use; until the magic day comes when the Dollar starts the downward spiral then its 100% I .

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

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Ladies n gentlemen...seats in the upright position....prepare for take-off

hope I didn't jinx it...100% S tomorrow morning