Market Talk

[learning]

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More details. What are theirprices? Will be traveling to those areas soon.

 

[robo]

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Might be addingshares in the S&P today! Buying the dips!!!!




Comments from a Tech:

The next chart shows that the S&P 500 has several imposing obstacles ahead of it. First is the recent interim high at 1228, then there is downtrend line from the annual high which intersects this week at 1233. Finally, there are the highs themselves, at 1241 and 1245.

The chart also reveals five or six sharp increases that extended for a week or longer during the past year. In each case there followed an extended period in which minor up and down moves were made. It is very likely that were about to enter a similar period, where progress is made grudgingly.

The NASDAQ closed at 2178.24 -- just four points below the important interim high reached in September. I anticipate backing and filling before further progress is made, and it will be a sign of considerable strength if there is no pause, and further highs are made this week instead.

The Dow is also at a crossroads, having stopped at 10586.23, just below the downtrend line at 10600. So you see, all three indices appear to be ready for a rest before further progress is made.

 

[JOVARN]

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This may be the dip many have been waiting for to jump in.

As the song goes ( this may be the start of something good) I am showing my age

Good luck

 

[Quips]

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The price of a gallon of premium gasoline around Ft. Lauderdale was $2.73 to $2.83 on Nov. 4.

The price a gallon of premium gasoline near Pittsburgh is $2.34 on Nov. 7.

I quit buying premium when the price goes above $3.

 

[Quips]

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Prices near Ft. Lauderdale for a gallon of premium was around $2.73 to $2.83 a gallon.

The cost of a gallon of premium near Pittsburgh is $2.34.

Usually the cheapest gas I know of is in Georgia, and last week it was $2.43 for premium.

I quit buying premium when the price goes above $2.99.

 

[tennisguy]

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here in texas it's
1.97 regular
Tennisguy

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Nov. 08, Closing


Kingdom News.

Kingdom Talk:. Market over bought in near term. Correction and profit taking!

Elsewhere:...... Vestors hint of having year-end bear chasing party.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at..................1218.59, dn -4.22
CMF (money flow) at.....+0.109, up
RSI (strength) at...........57.2, up
MACD (trend)....bullish
S-STO (signal)...------
P-SAR (signal)...bullish
ROC (change)...bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............59.71, up -0.24

Tea Leaves:................Green.


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100% stox
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1211, Trail: 1199.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[Greg]

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The I-fund stayed at $ 16.59 ; this matches MSCI.
FRTIB has not fudged the I-fund price in several days.

 

[robo]

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The good news about today is 1215 is providing good support so far!!!!Hoping for a deeperWave 2 to add additionalstock....



Some comments from a Tech:

Closing Comment

SPX prices are trading in a narrow range between 1215 and 1224. There is a lot of support at 1215 and slightly lower, and I'm not sure we are ready to do break that level right away.The hourly MSOhas become oversold again, and the daily MSO, although overbought, has not yet rolled over.Other indicators are ambiguous.

The QQQQ made a new high today and althoughit sold off later on, it still needs totouch 39.80to reverse its short-term trend. Since it has the possibility of going to 40.50 before being through with this move, it may not be ready to sell-off either.

I need more clarity before making a call!

 

[Skip]

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robo wrote:

Lowest station in El Paso $2.15 a gallon at Sams Club....

UDF 2.01 Cincinnati Ohio.. other stations were 2.08

Skip

 

[robo]

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Tom wrote:

Some people think we are not getting a pullback because too many people think we should get one. I like that type of thinking and it makes sense coming from a contrarian viewpoint. The other thinking is that too many people are thinking the first thought and that means we will get a pullback... I think.

The shark wrote:

This action bodes well for the market as we suspect it will continue to quietly move higher as underinvested portfolio managers worry about their lagging returns. We believe many will start to really feel the performance anxiety creep in if the market stays steady creating a frenzy of buying and eventually leading to an overbought top.

I think we are due a pull-back, but I thought the same thing last year.... It would be nice for one more buying Op below 1200..... However, the 1200 level could be in the rear view mirror and it's just wishful thinking.... Tough call for those still on the sidelines.... I do feel your pain, I still have plenty of cash to add stock..... Let's ask Birchtree what he would do? The next pullback might not come untill we hit 1250's, or it could be tomorrow.... I can tell you this for sure , support is slowing creeping to the UP side.....

 

[Skip]

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A little pull back today.. good for the market to digest the gains..
With all the mess in France we are holding up pretty good...

Looks like a cup and handle pattern forming... making the handle now. Needs to pull back a little more to shake the tree:^ Then a break out to the upside ...

Skip

 

[Birchtree]

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I'd say do it now and don't look back - we are coming off of two years worth of basing - and if you don't hit the exact bottom, will it matter at the end of December when we are at 1368 on SPX? It's time to pull the trigger or light the fuse. The Dow Transportation Index has already risen to historical highs and is holding. The Dow Industrials only need to move up just a little more than the distance it traveled over the past 4 weeks to give a powerful Dow Theory buy signal and get a lot of long-term investors on board. Start concentrating on the 4 - year cycle low that is due in September'06. This quarter will set the stage - I'm glad I'm in up to my eyeballs.

Dennis - perma bull #2

 

[learning]

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Premium 2.65-2.80 up North East Board. Low grade, 2.25-2.40.

On another note. I jumped almost all the way out of the I fund. I have put more money into the S and C fund. Hang the L fund. The reason, I read on the net,(MSNBC) that the Euro is starting to take a hit as a result of what is going on in France. Perhaps this will turn into a good thing for us. We may be able to buy low. Will have to watch how this plays out. Perhaps a short time after they start to control their people we can get in on the I fund. I am not leaving the stocks just pulling out of the I fund. I left a little toe in. I should not have done that. Ohh well. It made me money over all.

Thanks to Sahra for that.

Tis the season to make money. Looking for Santa$$$$$$$ (He can give me coal. I can use it. Just wrap it in money.)

RGDS be careful it is your retirement.

 

[robo]

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learning wrote:

I jumped almost all the way out of the I fund.

As long has the Fed is signaling rate increases the demandfor the dollar should remain strong. Rates continue to look pretty good to overseas investors as the Fed keeps up it's increases!!!!!!

The USD is up another .25 to 91.50 and will continue to climb.... I agree with you learning! I think the better play for now is the C and S fund until the Fed is done!!! I gave up on the I Fund for now due to the Bullish outlook for the dollar..... I still have some Emerging market stock, but have pulled back on the I Fund for now.... Sticking with Birchtree on the Big Caps and waiting for the I Fund money to come back home!!!

GO GO Dollar, bring that money back home!!!!!

Youcould keep around 10% of your portfolio in I Fund shares all the time.... That's the recommended percentage by Bob Brinker, and he gives pretty good advice...

 

[Show-me]

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Dollar party may be over soon
The currency has made surprising gains this year but rate moves in Europe could change all that.
November 8, 2005: 3:27 PM EST
By grace.wong2@turner.com[/email]]Grace Wong, CNN/Money staff writer


http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/08/news/economy/dollar/


Not trying to let air out of anyone's balloon. I just came across this and wanted to share.

 

[robo]

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show-me,

I agree, if they raise rates, but the US Fed is signaling 2 more in the next few meetings.... This will keep-um buying until Europeincreases or the Fed stops.... It will all play out in the next few months, but for now I think the dollar stays strong... That's only my opinion, but I have been wrong more times than I like to admit..... I'm sticking with the US markets for the rest of the year.....

 

[Spaf]

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Trading Strategy

My trading strategy for a bullish primary movement. [As a position trader.]

Background Information:

The Secret of Successful Trading RE: http://www.incrediblecharts.com

The secret of successful trading is to take a step back from the market. Trade with the big picture in mind at all times and don't follow the day to day market movement. Daily market talk can hypnotize you if you follow it too closely. You have to see the wood and not the individual trees.

Focus on the big picture. Follow the bull market and not individual stocks. The market has more influence on stock prices than any other factor.
So what is the secret formula?
-The key is to buy when the market signals the start of a bull trend.
-Select leading stocks that are outperforming the market.
-Sell when the bull trend has ended.
-There are exceptions to this rule: Sell individual stocks if they move against the trend.

In TSP we have the equity funds of F, C, S, and I.

As interest rates are going up the F-fund becomes an under performer. Leaving the C, S,and I funds.

Caution: The I-fund has a double edge sord: price and dollar.

Using weekly averages. Two weeks seems to be a fair balance, the C fund was up .45, the S fund up .63, and the I fund was up .50

Mathematically the proportion, based on 100%, rounded to the nearest 10 would create an allocation of: 30% C-fund, 40% S-fund, and 30% I-fund.

Right now I'm at 35-35-30. Close enough!

Accordingly, not all eggs are in a single basket. While 100% does make me nervious. The deversification at least lets me get some sleep.

Will also consider any (other) strategy talk! Open minded!

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[Show-me]

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Robo,

I am inclined to agree. I for one am thinking of getting out of the I fund for the C and/or S because of the USD strength. What about the rumor and panic effect? Will a rate increase in Europe and/or Asia shake people’s nerves on the Dollar? “Big Daddy” Warren Buffet is still shorting the USD and he’s a sharp cookie. Of course he’s a long term buy and hold type of guy also.

 

[Skip]

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Good Morning...
Futures up just a bit... Forgin markets up...

My spread is 45%C 45% S and just a bit in I 10%

I think till years end at least we will be in a up market.
Sp500 companies are buying their stocks back with their tons of cash and increaceing divends also.. p/e ratio at the low end also...
LOOKS BULLISH TO ME:^

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