Market Talk

[grandma]

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an interesting sidebar on inflation statistics:

http://tinyurl.com/azq2u

If this works, thank spaf......

 

[robo]

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learning wrote:

I have raised contributions. I want to jump in.

It's hard to predict the bottom.... Longer term the market has good value at 1210..... The S&P could easily go to 1300once we break-out..... Rita could start the rally early if the market sells off some more due to fear, and tests or breaks thru the 1200 support level....Good luck! I'm very close to going 100% long myself.......

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Sept. 21, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:.Storms push market lower, oil higher!


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at......1210.20, dn -11.14
CMF (money flow) at.-0.042, dn
RSI (strength) at...40.9, dn
MACD (trend)....bearish
S-STO (signal)..bearish
P-SAR (signal)..bearish
ROC (change)....bearish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at......66.80, up +0.60

Tea Leaves:..............Red.


Yak.

Remarks:.....Holding 40/60, IFT pending
S&P Stops:...Alert: 1229 [broken], Trail: 1217 [broken]
Oil Markers:.<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[Greg]

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Fellow Bears,

How far down do ya'll think the markets will fall in the next couple of weeks? I have no idea. Maybe 1140? Here are some recent lows (for the S&P):

1209.89 on 09/21/05
1201.07 on 08/30/05
1183.55 on 07/07/05
1146.18 on 05/13/05
1136.22 on 04/20/05
1090.19 on 10/25/04

 

[Birchtree]

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The bottom was today at what 1210 - why should it drop lower, because of fear.

 

[Greg]

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I don't think there will be a fall rally this year.
In 2003, the fall rally started in June when the Fed dropped rates for the last time AND indicated that they did not foresee any rate increases in the future.
In 2004, the fall rally started about a week-and-half before the November Presidential election when it become apparent that Bush was going to be reelected and it rallied until the end of the year because there would not be an administration change.

Now this fall 2005, a) rates are going up and the fed foresees them continuing to go up, b) there is no election to cause a rally and the pres that the market was bullish about last fall now has the lowest rating since taking office in 2001 and there was more optopsim last fall about Iraq, c) oil prices are up 50% since last fall and this fall there is going to be an increase in home heating oil/gas like never before - enough to kill Christmas buying, d) there has been 1 (maybe 2) major hurricanes e) with Katrina, corporations will be writing-off all their bad moves/projects in the coming quarter to get them out of the way and now if they are pressed at share holder meetings about the loses, they can say it was caused by Katrina (they did this before creatively writing-off all bad business under the label Y2K_Conversion expenses or 9/11 losses).

Therefore, I think the C and S funds are higher now than they will be on 12/31/05.

Just my 2 cents.

P.S. Remember when Pyriel put in a good word for me and said this board lately had too much bull and not enough bear?

 

[Greg]

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Birchtree wrote:

The bottom was today at what 1210 - why should it drop lower, because of fear.

Birch are you a bull or a bear? I can't remember. Ido rememberSpaf is a bull.

 

[Birchtree]

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Gregg,

All your points are certainly valid - but the market will be looking across any slow growth valley that arrives - thinking about reconstruction in 2006. The storm season is not over yet - there may be more pain on the horizon. I can't help but think to myself that this is going to be classic Fed dichotomy - watch what they do and not what they say. I think maintaining a semblance of economic stability should and will outweigh any favoritism they may have in fighing an inflationary environment that does not exist.

Dennis

 

[JOVARN]

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You cannot deny that people have a litigate reason to be fearfull.

How low can she go

 

[robo]

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Greg wrote:

How far down do ya'll think the markets will fall in the next couple of weeks?

I wish I could answer that question... I think you have a good idea Greg. We should have a contest to pick the market bottom.... If the 1201 support breaks down this week we could test the 1185 over the nextfew weeks, but I'm thinking the 1200 level will hold.... Depends on how much fearHurricane Ritaputs into the market the next couple of days..... The Tech's I follow think we could go to 1175-1150 if the 1200 level fails, but I'm not in that camp.... Birchtree could be correct and the bottom was today... The fear is caused by the unknown, "what if." Some investors are thinking right now, "what if this market goes down to 1150 I'm selling tomorrow."
Tom needs to show his fear chart again... Many investors still remember 1136.22 on 04/20/05. Plenty on this board got in a little early.....


I think this sell-off will come back soon with a nice rally. Going 100 C soon.....


Oh, I'm a Bull long term, but a bear this week.... That's how I voted in Tom'ssurvey for this week....


12-31-04 S&P 1211

09-21-05 S&P 1210

 

[Birchtree]

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Gregg,

I'm a bull when it goes down and it's time to buy myself into happiness - and I'm a bear when everyone else is bullish at the top. You can't do what everyone else does and expect different results - that's one of my words of wisdom. Maybe we need to finally drop the MOAB on that nuclear facility in Iran - another conflict is what we need to get things moving.

 

[Rolo]

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NNNNNnnnnuuuuu--CcuuuuUUUuuu--ler.

 

[robo]

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Market is currently oversold.... Will Rita keep investors on th sidelines tomorrow?

What about Friday?

 

[Rolo]

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I think the market is headed downward because that's what it does, not because of hurricanes. The market has decided, either with good reason or arbitrarily, that now is not a good time for a rally. It really resembles early 2004 (but I am not implying that it will continue to behave just like 2004, but it is possible).

 

[robo]

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rolo wrote:

I think the market is headed downward because that's what it does, not because of hurricanes

I'm referring to short term sentiment..... I think some investors are concerned about the damage to the oil industry.... Some could be selling due to concerns about future gas prices....Look at the London Bombing, it caused a pullback and then a nice rally.....On the other hand, the market could have sold down without Rita, and you could be correct..... After all, it is October. Bottom line the market is getting oversold for sure, and the value of the C Fund is getting very tempting to me..... Birchtree could be correct and the bottom is in.... I always get a good laugh out of CNBC on why the market is down or up...... I HAVE IT ON NOW.....

 

[The_Technician]

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Is it time for the song "Slip sliding away...." Cowboy???

I think the BULLhas something slip sliding away right now......:l

Birch...are you suggesting to start a world conflict to manipulate the market???


:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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I see Delta is letting go of some employees...9,000....jobless claims are going up due to Katrina....

Everywhere you look, the US is suffering economically....just what the third world wanted, and our politicians, unions and so forthlet it happen....

BOA strategist suggest investment on inflation protected investments....

http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/21/markets/boa_inflation.reut/index.htm

:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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Crude stocks are down but more thanthis time last year, so why the $68/BBL???? Alsogas stocks are up????

I believe the FTC is going to have a ball with this!

:^



Crude oil stocks slipped 0.3 million barrels to 308.1 million in the Sept. 16 week, but once again gasoline stocks were a surprise, rising a sharp 3.4 million to 194.4 million. Distillate stocks also rose, up 0.8 million barrels. Oil fell back about $1 in initial reaction to the gasoline data, which offer fresh evidence that high prices for gas are cutting into demand for gas.


class=econo-sectiontitleTrends

class=econo-chartcaptionAs is evident from the chart, crude oil stocks can fluctuate dramatically over the year. When oil prices nearly reached $50 per barrel in August 2004, financial market players began to monitor crude oil inventories. It is not surprising to see sharp price hikes in crude oil when inventories are falling. Conversely, one would expect price declines when inventories are rising.

 

[The_Technician]

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More on the jobless claims...sharply up...






[align=left]
Market Consensus Before Announcement
New jobless claims jumped 71,000 in the week ended September 10 to 398,000. According to Labor Department officials, 68,000 claims were Katrina-related in the most recent week. Thus far, they have measured roughly 84,000 Katrina-related claims. The Labor Department does admit that due to claims being filed in various places (not the home state), we are likely to see revisions in coming weeks.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 9/17/05: 450,000 (42,000)
Range: 400,000 to 500,000


class=econo-sectiontitleTrends

class=econo-chartcaptionWeekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.[/align]

 

[cowboy]

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The Technician wrote:

Is it time for the song "Slip sliding away...." Cowboy???

I think the BULLhas something slip sliding away right now......:l

Birch...are you suggesting to start a world conflict to manipulate the market???


:dude:

I guess it all depends on how you look at the big picture! It is gloom and doom in the economics of this thing, but disasters also causes a large influctation of money. I wouldn't say the bull is slip sliding away. Yet! It takes time for a market to digest things sometimes and I think the last 3 days of down is just investorsthat are short term figuring in oil prices surging! Actually I think the market is in a range mode as usual during the summer months as always and has been since the beginning of August. I just played the range and if it does not hold than will change tactics as I always do. I am thinking that if C & S hold today. They may be uptomorrow! If not I will just get bucked off wipe off the dust and gofora re-ride!:^