-
Welcome to the TSP Talk Forums forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content, join our AutoTracker, and access many other special features. Registration is simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. -
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
Market Talk
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
imported post
Eh, the following article sums it up fairly well. The unemployment rate in the states is rather low ... if it is an accurate measurement ... and the price of gold is increasing as well.
in any event, wouldn't it be something if Chinese manufacturing dominated all or most world market segments and then its government decided to cash in its US Treasuries for gold?
But the following article is not about such fiction but it is interesting.
Six Foreign Stocks for U.S. Investors: John Dorfman (Correct)
(Corrects typographical error in fifth paragraph. Commentary. John Dorfman, president of Dorfman Investments in Newton Centre, Massachusetts, is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. His firm or its clients may own or trade investments discussed in this column.)
By John Dorfman
Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Patriotism is running high in the U.S. these days. American flags fly from more houses than usual, radio shows crackle with U.S.-first talk, and many cars carry bumper stickers supporting troops abroad.
For an investment portfolio, however, I would caution against being too all-American.
Why have all your assets in one country? Surely, investment opportunities are not confined within one set of boundaries.
Moreover, there are some reasons to be cautious about the domestic market. U.S. stocks, as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, sell for 19 times earnings -- less than during the peak of the Internet bubble from 1999 to 2000, but not cheap.
The U.S. is coping with a budget deficit and trade deficit. Terrorists, if they strike on U.S. soil again, could knock U.S. stocks for a loop. The average American homeowner is further in debt than usual.
Two favorable forces -- a widespread increase in home prices and a climate of low interest rates -- may be waning. Since June 2004, the Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds target to 3.50 percent from 1.00 percent in 10 steps of 0.25 percent each.
If you define a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in gross domestic product, the U.S. hasn't had a recession since 1991. That's an unusually long time without one. On average, they occur about twice a decade.
Looking Abroad
For all of those reasons and simply for the sake of diversification, I suggest that U.S. investors keep 15 percent of their stock portfolios in non-U.S. stocks. Each September beginning in 1998, I have recommended about half a dozen non-U.S. stocks that are traded in the U.S.
Measured on a 12-month basis (September to September), my international picks have provided an average return of 26 percent, compared with an average return of 5.4 percent for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
Of my seven sets of recommendations, six have been profitable. All seven have beaten the S&P 500. Last year's picks kept the streak alive -- barely. My best performer was Allied Domecq PLC (AED), a U.K. company that owned a variety of liquor brands, plus Baskin-Robbins and Dunkin Donuts. Pernod-Ricard SA of France acquired Allied Domecq in July, leaving me with a 49 percent gain.
Ace, Autoliv
Ace Ltd. (ACE), a reinsurance company based in Bermuda, returned 20 percent. Deswell Industries Inc. (DSWL) of Macau, which makes injection-molded plastic parts, did almost as well, up 19 percent.
Autoliv Inc. (ALV) of Sweden, a maker of automobile air bags and seat belts, chipped in an 8.7 percent gain. And Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. (FDP), a Cayman Islands company that grows bananas, pineapples and other fruit, edged up 4.6 percent.
The sole loser was China Yuchai International Ltd. (CYD), a Singapore company that makes diesel truck engines in China. It fell 22 percent.
Averaging together these six results, I had a 13 percent gain from Sept. 16, 2004, through Sept. 16, 2005. The S&P 500 returned 12 percent.
I currently own Autoliv, Fresh Del Monte and China Yuchai for some of my clients. Until July, I also owned Allied Domecq. So far, I have never owned Ace or Deswell.
For the coming 12 months, I favor four of the six stocks I liked a year ago.
Deswell, Fresh Del Monte
Deswell, at 15 times earnings and with a dividend yield of 4.3 percent, still looks good to me. The company is debt-free.
Autoliv has reported seven consecutive yearly profits. Its shares are modestly priced at 12 times earnings and 1.6 times book value. It yields about 3 percent in dividends.
Fresh Del Monte has reported a profit every year since it started trading publicly in 1997. Last year's profit was down, yet the average yearly increase in earnings for the past five years has been about 19 percent. The stock appears tastily cheap at 13 times earnings, 0.5 times revenue and 1.5 times book. It yields 3 percent in dividends.
Last year's big loser, China Yuchai, had been a winner in 2002-2003 with a 473 percent return. The stock constantly gives me heart attacks, mostly because it's unclear whether the Singapore parent company has genuine control of the China operating unit.
Speculative is the only word I can use for China Yuchai, yet I think the demand for diesel truck engines in China will grow. At 7 times earnings and 0.5 times revenue, I think this stock is worth a gamble for daring investors.
To replace Allied Domecq, I choose MFC Bancorp Ltd. (MXBIF) of Hong Kong.
MFC used to be based in Austria and was a merchant bank -- basically, a bank that takes equity stakes in some companies or deals it finances. It remains a merchant bank but also owns an engineering company (KDH Humboldt Wedag) and engages in commodities trading.
MFC is thinly traded, with average daily volume of about 31,000 shares on the Nasdaq, and it is difficult to get much information about it. I might put up with these disadvantages because the company has earned between 15 percent and 20 percent on stockholders' equity the past five years, and the stock sells for only 12 times earnings and 0.5 times revenue.
I still like Ace, but there is another reinsurance stock I like better -- Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd. (ENH) of Hamilton, Bermuda. Pinched by Hurricane Katrina, its stock sells for a mere 6 times earnings, 1 times book value (corporate assets minus liabilities per share) and 1.1 times revenue. The stock yields 2.9 percent in dividends. I own it for clients who accept higher risks in hope of a higher return.
Eh, the following article sums it up fairly well. The unemployment rate in the states is rather low ... if it is an accurate measurement ... and the price of gold is increasing as well.
in any event, wouldn't it be something if Chinese manufacturing dominated all or most world market segments and then its government decided to cash in its US Treasuries for gold?
But the following article is not about such fiction but it is interesting.
Six Foreign Stocks for U.S. Investors: John Dorfman (Correct)
(Corrects typographical error in fifth paragraph. Commentary. John Dorfman, president of Dorfman Investments in Newton Centre, Massachusetts, is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. His firm or its clients may own or trade investments discussed in this column.)
By John Dorfman
Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Patriotism is running high in the U.S. these days. American flags fly from more houses than usual, radio shows crackle with U.S.-first talk, and many cars carry bumper stickers supporting troops abroad.
For an investment portfolio, however, I would caution against being too all-American.
Why have all your assets in one country? Surely, investment opportunities are not confined within one set of boundaries.
Moreover, there are some reasons to be cautious about the domestic market. U.S. stocks, as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, sell for 19 times earnings -- less than during the peak of the Internet bubble from 1999 to 2000, but not cheap.
The U.S. is coping with a budget deficit and trade deficit. Terrorists, if they strike on U.S. soil again, could knock U.S. stocks for a loop. The average American homeowner is further in debt than usual.
Two favorable forces -- a widespread increase in home prices and a climate of low interest rates -- may be waning. Since June 2004, the Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds target to 3.50 percent from 1.00 percent in 10 steps of 0.25 percent each.
If you define a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in gross domestic product, the U.S. hasn't had a recession since 1991. That's an unusually long time without one. On average, they occur about twice a decade.
Looking Abroad
For all of those reasons and simply for the sake of diversification, I suggest that U.S. investors keep 15 percent of their stock portfolios in non-U.S. stocks. Each September beginning in 1998, I have recommended about half a dozen non-U.S. stocks that are traded in the U.S.
Measured on a 12-month basis (September to September), my international picks have provided an average return of 26 percent, compared with an average return of 5.4 percent for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
Of my seven sets of recommendations, six have been profitable. All seven have beaten the S&P 500. Last year's picks kept the streak alive -- barely. My best performer was Allied Domecq PLC (AED), a U.K. company that owned a variety of liquor brands, plus Baskin-Robbins and Dunkin Donuts. Pernod-Ricard SA of France acquired Allied Domecq in July, leaving me with a 49 percent gain.
Ace, Autoliv
Ace Ltd. (ACE), a reinsurance company based in Bermuda, returned 20 percent. Deswell Industries Inc. (DSWL) of Macau, which makes injection-molded plastic parts, did almost as well, up 19 percent.
Autoliv Inc. (ALV) of Sweden, a maker of automobile air bags and seat belts, chipped in an 8.7 percent gain. And Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. (FDP), a Cayman Islands company that grows bananas, pineapples and other fruit, edged up 4.6 percent.
The sole loser was China Yuchai International Ltd. (CYD), a Singapore company that makes diesel truck engines in China. It fell 22 percent.
Averaging together these six results, I had a 13 percent gain from Sept. 16, 2004, through Sept. 16, 2005. The S&P 500 returned 12 percent.
I currently own Autoliv, Fresh Del Monte and China Yuchai for some of my clients. Until July, I also owned Allied Domecq. So far, I have never owned Ace or Deswell.
For the coming 12 months, I favor four of the six stocks I liked a year ago.
Deswell, Fresh Del Monte
Deswell, at 15 times earnings and with a dividend yield of 4.3 percent, still looks good to me. The company is debt-free.
Autoliv has reported seven consecutive yearly profits. Its shares are modestly priced at 12 times earnings and 1.6 times book value. It yields about 3 percent in dividends.
Fresh Del Monte has reported a profit every year since it started trading publicly in 1997. Last year's profit was down, yet the average yearly increase in earnings for the past five years has been about 19 percent. The stock appears tastily cheap at 13 times earnings, 0.5 times revenue and 1.5 times book. It yields 3 percent in dividends.
Last year's big loser, China Yuchai, had been a winner in 2002-2003 with a 473 percent return. The stock constantly gives me heart attacks, mostly because it's unclear whether the Singapore parent company has genuine control of the China operating unit.
Speculative is the only word I can use for China Yuchai, yet I think the demand for diesel truck engines in China will grow. At 7 times earnings and 0.5 times revenue, I think this stock is worth a gamble for daring investors.
To replace Allied Domecq, I choose MFC Bancorp Ltd. (MXBIF) of Hong Kong.
MFC used to be based in Austria and was a merchant bank -- basically, a bank that takes equity stakes in some companies or deals it finances. It remains a merchant bank but also owns an engineering company (KDH Humboldt Wedag) and engages in commodities trading.
MFC is thinly traded, with average daily volume of about 31,000 shares on the Nasdaq, and it is difficult to get much information about it. I might put up with these disadvantages because the company has earned between 15 percent and 20 percent on stockholders' equity the past five years, and the stock sells for only 12 times earnings and 0.5 times revenue.
I still like Ace, but there is another reinsurance stock I like better -- Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd. (ENH) of Hamilton, Bermuda. Pinched by Hurricane Katrina, its stock sells for a mere 6 times earnings, 1 times book value (corporate assets minus liabilities per share) and 1.1 times revenue. The stock yields 2.9 percent in dividends. I own it for clients who accept higher risks in hope of a higher return.
G
Greg
Guest
imported post
Birchtree wrote:
Birchtree wrote:
By this, you think the markets will go up tomorrow, eh?
G
Greg
Guest
imported post
[font=Verdana,Sans-Serif]Crude Oil Prices Jump $67 a Barrel[/font]
[font=Verdana,Sans-Serif]Wednesday September 21, 5:32 AM EDT[/font]
[font=Verdana,Sans-Serif]SINGAPORE (AP) — Concerns that Hurricane Rita could smash into key oil facilities in Texas lifted crude oil prices more than $1 Wednesday to above $67 a barrel as workers fled oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico less than a month after Hurricane Katrina blasted through the same region.
Forecasters said Rita could intensify in the Gulf of Mexico into a Category 4 storm with winds of at least 131 mph. The most likely destination by week's end was Texas, although Louisiana and northern Mexico were possibilities, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
Texas, the heart of U.S. crude production, accounts for 25 percent of the nation's total oil output. Rita is also thwarting recovery efforts as refineries gear up for winter, the peak season for production of distillate, fuels that include heating oil, jet fuel, kerosene and diesel.
[/font]
[line]
The dollar has gone down overnight. I thought higher U.S.interest rates were suppose to strengthen the dollar.:h
[font=Verdana,Sans-Serif]Crude Oil Prices Jump $67 a Barrel[/font]
[font=Verdana,Sans-Serif]Wednesday September 21, 5:32 AM EDT[/font]
[font=Verdana,Sans-Serif]SINGAPORE (AP) — Concerns that Hurricane Rita could smash into key oil facilities in Texas lifted crude oil prices more than $1 Wednesday to above $67 a barrel as workers fled oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico less than a month after Hurricane Katrina blasted through the same region.
Forecasters said Rita could intensify in the Gulf of Mexico into a Category 4 storm with winds of at least 131 mph. The most likely destination by week's end was Texas, although Louisiana and northern Mexico were possibilities, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
Texas, the heart of U.S. crude production, accounts for 25 percent of the nation's total oil output. Rita is also thwarting recovery efforts as refineries gear up for winter, the peak season for production of distillate, fuels that include heating oil, jet fuel, kerosene and diesel.
[/font]
[line]
The dollar has gone down overnight. I thought higher U.S.interest rates were suppose to strengthen the dollar.:h
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
My thoughts went that way also Greg.....Rita, the meter maid is coming to place a fine on us......
:dude:
My thoughts went that way also Greg.....Rita, the meter maid is coming to place a fine on us......
:dude:
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
Here is the kicker...sales are off....consumers are too taxed.....remember, this is the brunt of our economy....consumer sales.
ICSC-UBS's weekly chain store index plunged 2.1% in the Sept. 17 week, posting the largest weekly drop in nearly two years. The year-on-year rate fell to 2.4% from 3.5%. The report said customer traffic slowed across the nation but especially in the South, the lasting result of Hurricane Katrina. Hot weather through much of the country also hurt sales of fall items.
The Redbook isn't any better ....
Redbook reported mixed sales in the Sept. 17 week, a contrast to ICSC-UBS which showed a sharp decline. Redbook's year-on-year rate for the week is 3.2%, down slightly from the prior week's 3.4% rate but well above ICSC-UBS's rate in the latest week of 2.4%. Redbook noted that sales of basics were strong as cleanup from Katrina continued. Redbook's report offers a contrast to other indications that consumer spending, due to the sharp spike in gas prices, may be slowing. The markets showed no reaction to the data.
Then there is housing stats....
[align=left]
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Housing starts were unchanged in July at a 2.042 million-unit rate. Mortgage rates rose about 10 basis points in August from the July average. Anecdotal evidence has housing activity moderating somewhat. Some marginal Katrina impact might be evident in August; I would expect more in September.
Housing starts Consensus Forecast for Aug 05: 2.04 million-unit rate
Range: 1.975 to 2.150 million-unit rate
class=econo-sectiontitleTrends
class=econo-chartcaptionMonthly figures are often volatile; housing starts fluctuate more than many indicators. According to the Commerce Department, it takes five months for total housing starts to establish a trend. Consequently, we have depicted total starts relative to a five month moving avera
:^
[/align]
Here is the kicker...sales are off....consumers are too taxed.....remember, this is the brunt of our economy....consumer sales.
ICSC-UBS's weekly chain store index plunged 2.1% in the Sept. 17 week, posting the largest weekly drop in nearly two years. The year-on-year rate fell to 2.4% from 3.5%. The report said customer traffic slowed across the nation but especially in the South, the lasting result of Hurricane Katrina. Hot weather through much of the country also hurt sales of fall items.
The Redbook isn't any better ....
Redbook reported mixed sales in the Sept. 17 week, a contrast to ICSC-UBS which showed a sharp decline. Redbook's year-on-year rate for the week is 3.2%, down slightly from the prior week's 3.4% rate but well above ICSC-UBS's rate in the latest week of 2.4%. Redbook noted that sales of basics were strong as cleanup from Katrina continued. Redbook's report offers a contrast to other indications that consumer spending, due to the sharp spike in gas prices, may be slowing. The markets showed no reaction to the data.
Then there is housing stats....
[align=left]
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Housing starts were unchanged in July at a 2.042 million-unit rate. Mortgage rates rose about 10 basis points in August from the July average. Anecdotal evidence has housing activity moderating somewhat. Some marginal Katrina impact might be evident in August; I would expect more in September.
Housing starts Consensus Forecast for Aug 05: 2.04 million-unit rate
Range: 1.975 to 2.150 million-unit rate
class=econo-sectiontitleTrends
class=econo-chartcaptionMonthly figures are often volatile; housing starts fluctuate more than many indicators. According to the Commerce Department, it takes five months for total housing starts to establish a trend. Consequently, we have depicted total starts relative to a five month moving avera
:^
[/align]
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
If this keeps up (break for the downside), I wouldn't expect to see any profits longer than 3 days in funds other than G and F for a while....the slippage will be so slick it will be hard to catch an upturn....
Is there anybody out there???
:dude:
If this keeps up (break for the downside), I wouldn't expect to see any profits longer than 3 days in funds other than G and F for a while....the slippage will be so slick it will be hard to catch an upturn....
Is there anybody out there???
:dude:
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
Well, I wasn't trying to spook'em....but it is a hypothetical possibility based on the past performances........
I'd wish it'd go ahead and make its move down....tired of waiting myself....we could be in limbo till EOY and then some.....
BOOOO! :shock: How was that Cowboy????!!!! Did I catch you off guard....
:l
Well, I wasn't trying to spook'em....but it is a hypothetical possibility based on the past performances........
I'd wish it'd go ahead and make its move down....tired of waiting myself....we could be in limbo till EOY and then some.....
BOOOO! :shock: How was that Cowboy????!!!! Did I catch you off guard....
:l
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
"The current decline is deemed to be the continuation of wave "C" of an intermediate corrective pattern which should end around October 10."
Your tech date prediction sounds decent enough Robo, I believe that's Elliot wave right???....I'm expecting end of month of Oct for that temp bottom to occur.......but it won't hold for long and then EOY, which won't hold long either and then we get into months later.....then we may be playing with some downside risk eliminated for a bit....
:dude:
"The current decline is deemed to be the continuation of wave "C" of an intermediate corrective pattern which should end around October 10."
Your tech date prediction sounds decent enough Robo, I believe that's Elliot wave right???....I'm expecting end of month of Oct for that temp bottom to occur.......but it won't hold for long and then EOY, which won't hold long either and then we get into months later.....then we may be playing with some downside risk eliminated for a bit....
:dude:
imported post
By the end of October the market should be higher; as by then the only place to go will be up. The Hurricane season should be fading and the oil refineries should be back in action. The jobs indicator should be up as Christmas is right around the corner and both areas hit hardest by Katrina and Rita will be in rebuilding mode which will have a 2 % increase in the GNP. Hope for the best and be quick on your feet or you can loose alot of $$ in this market
By the end of October the market should be higher; as by then the only place to go will be up. The Hurricane season should be fading and the oil refineries should be back in action. The jobs indicator should be up as Christmas is right around the corner and both areas hit hardest by Katrina and Rita will be in rebuilding mode which will have a 2 % increase in the GNP. Hope for the best and be quick on your feet or you can loose alot of $$ in this market
imported post
I am so scared now Techy! LOL!:shock:If you scare them hard enough maybe I can get a nice bounce tomorrow while Rita is getting her hair done off the coast! It wouldn't be any fun if it hit the same area around New Orleans of course that soup bowl would only need a few inches of rain apparently.
Good luck everyone!
I am so scared now Techy! LOL!:shock:If you scare them hard enough maybe I can get a nice bounce tomorrow while Rita is getting her hair done off the coast! It wouldn't be any fun if it hit the same area around New Orleans of course that soup bowl would only need a few inches of rain apparently.
Good luck everyone!
robo
Well-known member
imported post
Technician wrote:
I receive comments from 3, and they all are currently in the Sell mode... The big question is if the S&P holds around the 1200 level or is it something bigger? We hit 1205 on 8-25-05, but fear fromthis new hurricane and the disappointment causedby thelast Fed rate hike could give us a nice buying opportunity soon..... I think low volume will cause the market to drift lower the next few days.... I think the market has good value right now, but buyers might take a wait-and-see attitude until the effects of thislatest hurricane can be analyzed. Ifwe come out of this hurricane okit could be the trigger for a break-out and new highs! It could also increase the sell-off if things get ugly.... I hope we are better prepared for this one.... I just don't think we can get a decent rally right now with that Ugly CAT 5 spinning in the Gulf!
Technician wrote:
I receive comments from 3, and they all are currently in the Sell mode... The big question is if the S&P holds around the 1200 level or is it something bigger? We hit 1205 on 8-25-05, but fear fromthis new hurricane and the disappointment causedby thelast Fed rate hike could give us a nice buying opportunity soon..... I think low volume will cause the market to drift lower the next few days.... I think the market has good value right now, but buyers might take a wait-and-see attitude until the effects of thislatest hurricane can be analyzed. Ifwe come out of this hurricane okit could be the trigger for a break-out and new highs! It could also increase the sell-off if things get ugly.... I hope we are better prepared for this one.... I just don't think we can get a decent rally right now with that Ugly CAT 5 spinning in the Gulf!
imported post
I have raised contrabutions. I want to jump in.
This is a bad situation with the class 5 coming in. I will pray for all in the area.
Halloween will be a good indication of how things will go. Last year it had record sells. This is the second biggest Holiday in the year for sells. Christmas is the first and so close together. I hope to see another Santa rally. I am watching close for a jump in point. I see the market going way over sold and then back up some.
RGDS. Be careful its your retirement.
I have raised contrabutions. I want to jump in.
This is a bad situation with the class 5 coming in. I will pray for all in the area.
Halloween will be a good indication of how things will go. Last year it had record sells. This is the second biggest Holiday in the year for sells. Christmas is the first and so close together. I hope to see another Santa rally. I am watching close for a jump in point. I see the market going way over sold and then back up some.
RGDS. Be careful its your retirement.
Similar threads
