Market Talk

[robo]

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Quips wrote:

Looks like a Katerina surge in the I fund today ... lol.

Needthe dollar to pullback some today.



Dollar is up ( USD 0.37 ) already... It hurt the I fund yesterday..... It might pull back some, but not looking good... Euro is the problem....


To see current ( USD )data click on link below:

http://www.kitco.com/market/

US Dollar Index (USD)


Delayed 30 minutes

The U.S. Dollar Index® is computed using a trade-weighted geometric average of six currencies. The six currencies and their trade weights are:

Euro 57.6%

Japan/yen 13.6%


UK/pound 11.9%


Canada/dollar 9.1%






[align=center][/align]Sweden/krona 4.2%


Switzerland/franc 3.6%


These contract specifications are subject to change. Please consult the FINEX if you have any questions.

 

[robo]

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I'll believe it when I see it....

AP
Forbes Expects Oil Price to Dip to $35
Monday August 29, 11:01 pm ET

Publisher Steve Forbes Says He Expects Oil Price to Dip As Low As $35 Within a Year

SYDNEY, Australia (AP) -- Steve Forbes, the American publishing executive, said Tuesday he expects the price of oil to fall as low as US$35 a barrel within a year, blaming the current price spike largely on speculation.
Forbes, in Sydney for a conference of global business leaders sponsored by his organization, said that U.S. inflation was helping fuel the rise "and the rest of it is a sheer bubble of speculation."
"I think in 12 months we are going to see oil down to US$35, US$40 a barrel," he said.
As Hurricane Katrina lashed the U.S. Gulf Coast on Monday, oil hit US$70.80 a barrel, before retreating.
"It is a huge bubble, I don't know what's going to pop, but eventually it will pop," Forbes said of the oil price.

 

[robo]

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Gas is up at the whole sale price 15%!!!! Oil over 70 a barrel... Look for a big spike in gas the next couple of days......

 

[GatorinGA]

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We've already seen it here in Middle GA, it shot up .25 yesterday at some stations.

 

[robo]

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I'm surprised the market has not sold off more... Hopefully Tom is correct on a short term rally....


Some comments from a Tech. Way, Way, more than enough to choke a horse, but the 1200 support keeps holding....

Tuesday 8/30/05 Morning Comment

There is enough bad news reporting out there to choke a horse, and yet the market reaction is mild. The A/D, in particular, is holding quite well, so far. That does not mean that it can't change on a dime. Holding action is one thing, buying is something else. There is none of the latter.

There are so many bifurcations in this correction that it is difficult to assess the current structure, but I believe that we could be starting another wave down. On the 10-minute chart, we have just completed a 5-wave pattern which could be the first wave of a new down wave. If what we are currently doing is a "2", then 3 is next and could be significant.

In any case, there is no sign of strength and until there is, the short-term trend is down and could even accelerate. Yesterday there was a lot of very short term buying pressure. Today it's the opposite, and because yesterday took the hourly indicators to an overbought level which has not been relieved, even by today's decline, the market is vulnerable to further selling.

We'll soon know!

 

[robo]

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Unbelievable destruction in New Orleans.... Water still coming in....They have order everyone out.It's very, very bad. They said it's like a gaint cesspool!I'll be saying a pray for them.... I hope they can get EVERYONE out in the next couple of days.

 

[Guest]

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[suP]
WSJ 8/30/05[/suP]
ARIZONA AUTHORITIES SEIZED more than $101 million from an account that may have been in the coffers of Bayou, a hedge fund under investigation for fraud. Separately, Bayou's manager was served civil papers. (Complete coverage) 3:37 p.m.•Bayou Losses Could Hit Prominent Firms

***
The Dow industrials fell 50.23 points to 10412.82, avoiding the worst of the day's losses as investors weighed the fallout from Katrina. Nymex oil finished at a record price but pulled back from $70 a barrel. 4:25 p.m

***
Fed policy makers fretted that inflation had "ticked up," minutes of their June meeting show, but decided they can hold inflation in check without accelerating interest-rate increases. (Full text) 3:12 p.m.

***
The U.S. poverty rate rose to 12.7% of the population last year, the fourth consecutive annual increase, but the percentage of people without health insurance didn't change, the Census Bureau said.•Consumer Confidence Rises

***
Bank of China offered a mandate to handle its multibillion-dollar initial public offering to three investment banks -- Goldman Sachs, UBS and Bank of China International.

***
GM said it won't change its marketing focus on full-size pickups and SUVs. The auto maker also announced a recall of about 800,000 vehicles due to concerns over their antilock brakes. 3:30 p.m.

 

[Guest]

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robo wrote:

Oil Price to Dip to $35

Not if Halliburton/Cheney has any say in it

 

[pyriel]

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I really feel for the people who got hit directly by Katrina. I guess these things are all over the place. Here in the Pacific, we narrowly missed Talim which is about to hit Taiwan. Now we are contending with Nabi which is currently in our backyard. Btw, if you can see that little green dot on the left side of Nabi, that is where I live. I'm actually waving at you all.;-)

 

[James48843]

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Luckily I got the confirmation my 100% into G fund was effective monday . Thank goodness.

Based on the reports, I think this one is going to tank everything.

I put in an email today to Department of the Army Human Resources, volunteering if they need more help for disaster relief. I have a feeling the National Guard alone is nowhere near enough on this one. They are probably going to need a good 20,000 federal troops in addition to the local National Guard, if the scale of this is really what it appears to be.

Besides New Orleans about to be completely underwater, the country will have its hands full with the rest of the Gulf Coast areas we haven't even heard about yet.

I think this one is, by far, a larger natural disaster than the nation has ever faced. I would not be surprized to see death tolls climb substaintially in the next few days.

And then, of course, comes the real problems- disease among those still remaining stranded without water or sewage treatment. Could be really, really bad in a few days.

The real disaster will be when Haliburton gets the no bid contract to begin repairs to the levee system.

Gas today at my place jumped from $2.64 to $3.05 for regular, after noon today.

That is only the beginning. Look for $ 4 gas by the end of September.

Good thing I moved to G fund.

 

[Birchtree]

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James48843,

I don't know how long you've been in the investment arena - but you probably made the wrong move to the G fund. That is just a single opinion and of course you are not alone. The markets always discount the future - which for mere mortals may be difficult to discern. The Fed will do the right maneuver for the country and pause with rates and may have to lower them sooner than anticipated. We will slow down but avoid recession and the market will respond in a bullish temperament. The top has yet to be seen - pick your strategy and stay with the plan. Of course I'm loosing money currently which does not leave me much room to offer advice - but panic is not a good emotion to deal with when investing. Take care.

Dennis

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date August 30, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk: Vestors presumed lost in oil swamp! Posse being formed to hunt for vestors. May have lost their way in recent storm.

Elsewhere: Krude's horse fillerup is eating all the oats in the stable.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1208.41, dn -3.87
CMF (money flow) at -0.190, dn
RSI (strength) at 41.5, dn
MACD (trend) bearish
S-STO (signal) bullish
ROC (change) bearish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at 69.81, up +2.61....OUCH!

Tea Leaves: Red


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 100/0
S&P Stops: Alert= NA, Trail= NA.
Oil Markers: <63= ok, 63-68= worry, >68= panic.

 

[Show-me]

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I may regret my move today. Local National Guard unit was just activated and are being sent to Louisiana. Looting is so bad the COPS are standing by and letting everyone go. No place to put them when you arrest them and some have weapons. Levee is in dire condition and they will not be able to do anything until tomorrow. The only way I can think of stopping water in a 500 foot gap like that is to sink a barge full of dirt next to it and hope for the best.

A lot of talk here about gasoline going to $4 to $5. Not good. Good luck all.

 

[learning]

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Show-me wrote:

... Local National Guard unit was just activated and are being sent to Louisiana. Looting is so bad the COPS are standing by and letting everyone go. No place to put them when you arrest them and some have weapons....
A lot of talk here about gasoline going to $4 to $5. Not good. Good luck all.

L.A. Riots again. Different cause. They will be calling up Federal Officers from all agencies in the near future. They will have to pull people out against there will and take them some place. No one out at night. They need to grab all people out on the streets with weapons. This will not be pretty. Riots never are. All those going through this you are in our thoughts and prayers.

Yea, fuel is not going to be pretty for a while. People will buy to get the rise up. Fuel will also be slowed on delivery. Now, I have not read the Farmers Almanac, (SP). If it calls for a hard winter we will be hammered. For those of you that buy heating oil you may want to lock in prices. However, someone wrote they saw fuel cost going down in the future. Hmmm. You decide your money your future.

I am so sorry for all that are hurting today. At home and away. Lord be with you.

 

[pyriel]

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What are we seeing here for the next several months? I've been analyzing some of the economic indicators and came up with these conclusions. If anyone sees something different, I'd like to see your opinion.

Looks like real estate will continue to go up. With the rebuilding that needs to be done, new home will increase but existing home sale will decrease. I a bullish about real estatefor the next six months. Umployment rate will decrease due to jobs that will be generated to rebuild the destruction done by Katrina. Corporate profit especially from LOWE and Home Depot should be watched for they are going to be going up for the next several months. If anyone is planning on buying some of their stocks, now would be a good time to do it. I wonder what Greenspan and the rest of his gangs will do concerning interest rate. Wouldthey pauseto let consumer confidence catch up and to create an impasse on what oil is doing to our economy. Either way,I believe the fed will not be able to slow down real estate boom for the next six months or so.

I'm concern about consumer confidence.As volatile as they are right now, Katrina's destruction does not help. With oil hanging over our head and threatening to reach$100 per barrel, I just don't know where this indicator will be heading.Personal income is tied with lower unemployment rate and will most likely go up as well.

With all the destruction caused by katrina, I kind of feel bad putting this information out. However, i've been cominginand out of this site before, during and after Katrina made inland and I came into a conclusion thateveryone, new and regular members, are here to give support and to gain knowledged on what this will do to our retirement account.

Good luck to all. P

 

[mlk_man]

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This just in:

-- AP: Bush administration to release oil from petroleum reserves to help refiners affected by Hurricane Katrina, U.S. energy secretary says.



Rally time? :^

 

[mlk_man]

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mlk_man wrote:

This just in:

-- AP: Bush administration to release oil from petroleum reserves to help refiners affected by Hurricane Katrina, U.S. energy secretary says.



Rally time? :^

Futures just spiked up.

 

[Guest]

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mlk_man wrote:

This just in:

-- AP: Bush administration to release oil from petroleum reserves to help refiners affected by Hurricane Katrina, U.S. energy secretary says.



Rally time? :^

If it is rally time, will it be a rally for the Ifund as well as the C & S?

 

[Guest]

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mlk_man wrote:

This just in:

-- AP: Bush administration to release oil from petroleum reserves to help refiners affected by Hurricane Katrina, U.S. energy secretary says.



Rally time? :^

If it is rally time, will it be a rally for the Ifund as well as the C & S?

 

[mlk_man]

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Elvis wrote:

mlk_man wrote:

This just in:

-- AP: Bush administration to release oil from petroleum reserves to help refiners affected by Hurricane Katrina, U.S. energy secretary says.



Rally time? :^

If it is rally time, will it be a rally for the Ifund as well as the C & S?

Very possible. It's too late today for Asia, but Europe just went up a little more. The dollar was flat last I looked. Could be a buying opp for today. I'll give itsome consideration........................nah, don't think so, I HATE THE I FUND!!!