Market Talk

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday-Weekly

Early Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: August 28, 2005


Market News.

Kingdom Talk: Market remains captivated by Krude. Lube and rate talk will be major players in the sentiment of the consumer which has been somewhat sour. Vestors will be pondering the economy, the high price of lube, and the interest rate outlook (FOMC minutes). last week lube hit a all time high of $68 a bucket. Enough is enough!

Elsewhere: The last week in August might be the weather week. That is if we can survive Katrina and Labor day. There after if lube backs off, a buying opportunity could exist, and could spark a post labor day rally. At least I would like to think so!

Elsewhere: A coulple of companies caught manipulating numbers to deceive investors. Fed sees housing boom to start simmering.

Other News: -> http://www.briefing.com/SilverIndex.htm

-> http://www.bullandbearwise.com/


Doodles, and Tea Leaves - Weekly.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1205.10, dn -1.2% for the week.
CMF (money flow) at -0.183, dn
RSI (strength) at 37.9, dn
MACD (trend) bearish
S-STO (signal) bearish
ROC (change) bearish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at 66.13, up +$0.78 for the week

Attachment: S&P (3mo) chart ending 08-26. Added: 20dMA, PSAR, MACD, S-STO, and ROC.


Tea leaves: Red


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 80-20-0-0-0 IFT: 100/0
My sentiment: Waiting till after labor day.
S&P Stops: Alert: NA, Trailing: NA.
Oil Markers: OK=<63, Worry=63-68, Panic=>68
Weekly TSP Returns: G=+.01, F=+.01, C=-.16, S=-.08, I=+.01

 

[teknobucks]

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warren sez oil has topped

katrina sez not so fast

charts appear to show a buying opp...... http://tinyurl.com/9dyq9

 

[teknobucks]

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britts see katrina east of NOon miss/ala border......they seem 2 be much more accurate than our folks with track 4cast.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_model.html

this storm is a monster .... http://tinyurl.com/chrdl :s:s:s:s:s:s:s:s:s:s

..... if u live in the central gulf coast area please evac now.

"so-called" expert disscussion here: http://tinyurl.com/9dq82

 

[teknobucks]

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http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7525549

 

[Quips]

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A pretty good financial radio talk show is on Sunday mornings on KDKA radio from 9 to 11 a.m. Internet streaming technology is not as good as WRKO, but is okay.

 

[robo]

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Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil plunged, after touching a record $68 a barrel in New York yesterday, as Hurricane Katrina was forecast to miss most production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, where 30 percent of U.S. oil is pumped.

How does this Category 5 storm effect oil Monday? Is there a chance for 70 a barrel Monday?

 

[coolhand]

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robo wrote:

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil plunged, after touching a record $68 a barrel in New York yesterday, as Hurricane Katrina was forecast to miss most production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, where 30 percent of U.S. oil is pumped.

How does this Category 5 storm effect oil Monday? Is there a chance for 70 a barrel Monday?

isn't tsp managed in N.O.? :shock:

 

[Dave M]

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Hey, yeah. The National Finance Center is in N.O., and payday is this week. Now what?

Dave

 

[Show-me]

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Last time a storm got close to N.O. they shut down the TSP office. No transfers!!!

:shock::*:end::U:#:'

 

[coolhand]

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Show-me wrote:

Last time a storm got close to N.O. they shut down the TSP office. No transfers!!!

:shock::*:end::U:#:'

Thisstorm is so powerful there may not be an office toreopen.

Bottom line, I hope all those folks in the path of this monster get out of town. This one looks likes it's gonna be bad.

 

[Birchtree]

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Will this be enough of a national crises to shut Greenspan down - massive damage on the way and who k nows what will happen to oil production and refinery capacity.

Common sense tells me the idiots will pause and may even have to add liquidity.

In the meantime the Birch will absorb the body blows and look to the future. I plan to ride this financial storm and possibly even do some select buying.

 

[Rod]

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If I were you, I'd be doing a transfer ASAP to 100(G). If N.O. takes a direct hit, who knows just how long the office will be out of pocket. No office, no transfers... right?

Does anyone know if the office has a contingency plan for such scenerios?

Good luck to everyone.

BTW, I'm here in Norfolk at the USO... waiting for my flight to the "sandbox".

God Bless

 

[JohnnieB1]

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My agency has a major office in New Orleans. Every time there is a hurricane we shut it down. Our critical functions are conducted from up here in DC and from Gulf folks via cell phones. Just FYI

 

[Spaf]

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I put in a IFT for 100% G on Saturday. But I don't know whats going to happen with it if the TSP site closes. :? Could be wrong, I seem to remember that the site was down for a few days.

I tried to find a small chart of Katrina

 

[grandma]

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Rod wrote:

BTW, I'm here in Norfolk at the USO... waiting for my flight to the "sandbox".
God Bless

Go carefully, Rod. May God give you the wisdom & discernment you need as you need it .....

Our prayers are also for those who have met, & are meeting Katrina tis week.

 

[SystemTrader]

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Here's some more discussion of Katrina.For whatever it's worth, theyspeculate on crude pricesas well as thedangerKatrina poses.I don't want to be a fearmonger, but N.O.isthe worst place imaginable forsomething like this to hit, if it'sasbad as some are speculating...

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=54504

ST

 

[coolhand]

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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Satellite image of Katrina. May take a moment to load.

 

[Quips]

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Bob Brinker came out with another gem on his MoneyTalk program today; I hear it via the 'net on WRKO in Boston.

Maybe Bob is gunning to be some president's economic advisor, but he called for the president to access the strategic oil reserve to keep speculators from having a field day with short term oil futures.

"[The decision is] a "no-brainer"', Brinker said.

I agree with his accessment. Whatever decision is made -- or not made-- will indicate just where the president stands on the matter ... with the people or with the special interests.

No one can tell me that war in Iraq was started for the sake of democracy. Was it not initiated for the sake of the oil sector and its importance to the world economy?

The problem now is that the West was getting more oil from Iraq when Sadam was there than we are getting now. LOL

 

[Birchtree]

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We are about to embark on a national crises that could involve the return of gas lines again. There is a lot of refinery capacity standing in harms way that will undoubtedly sustain damage. Pull the Fed off the homebuyer and open the reserves they can be refilled at a later date. The Fed will need to pump liquidity to keep the economy on a stable course - and who knows where the next storm will go. We have to begin thinking about the approaching winter and crop damage. The market will more than likely put in a steep intraday low tomorrow but will recover - the Fed will do what is right. I'm staying long and will be buying - foolish bull that I am.

 

[robo]

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Markets down some, but so far not to bad.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html



Oil is already 69.60

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/cfutures.html