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Market Talk
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
Show-me wrote:
Courtesy of Jim Sinclair. Yea, this is interesting.
http://www.financialpolicy.org/fpfspb26.htm
Show-me wrote:
Credit Derivatives Trigger Near System Meltdown
Courtesy of Jim Sinclair. Yea, this is interesting.
http://www.financialpolicy.org/fpfspb26.htm
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
I fear 1140 on the S&P is possibly nearer than we think ....I wouldn't stick around for anything over the next week or so......too much risk....
:^
I fear 1140 on the S&P is possibly nearer than we think ....I wouldn't stick around for anything over the next week or so......too much risk....
:^
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date August 16, Closing
Market News.
Kingdom Talk: Market goes down lube tube!
Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.
Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1219.06, dn -14.53
CMF (money flow) at -0.012, dn
RSI (strength) at 45.4, dn
MACD (trend) bearish
S-STO (signal) bearish
ROC (change) at -1.20, bearish
Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at 66.08, dn -0.19
Tea Leaves: Red
Yak.
Remarks: Holding 100/0
S&P Stops: Alert= 1233 [broken], Trail= 1221 [broken].
The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date August 16, Closing
Market News.
Kingdom Talk: Market goes down lube tube!
Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.
Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1219.06, dn -14.53
CMF (money flow) at -0.012, dn
RSI (strength) at 45.4, dn
MACD (trend) bearish
S-STO (signal) bearish
ROC (change) at -1.20, bearish
Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at 66.08, dn -0.19
Tea Leaves: Red
Yak.
Remarks: Holding 100/0
S&P Stops: Alert= 1233 [broken], Trail= 1221 [broken].
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
The Technician wrote:
seriously i will not risk much more here till i see a floor.
The Technician wrote:
come on tech.....jump this baby!
seriously i will not risk much more here till i see a floor.
imported post
That Mauldin piece was very interesting.
I disagree with when he said "a negative trade gap is, of course, a drag on the U.S. economy". How is that an economic drag? The rest of the world is financing our consumption by buying all kinds of U.S. Treasury bonds, Ginny-Mae's included. The question is how long will the rest of the world continue to finance our consumption?
My guess is they will continue to do so until American stop taking money out of their houses via home equity loans. No doubt the banks they are dealing with are selling those loans in great big packages ... probably to lenders of all kinds, foreign and domestic.
So buyers of U.S. Treasuries sort of have the payments on that debt and even the value of the U.S. dollars in their own hands. They are in the driver's seat when it comes to our consumption.
Home equity loans will probably reach a limit when the house's appreciation in value is matched by interest payments -- something that depreciatates from its appreciation so to speak. That day will come sooner or later as short term interest rates increase and real estate appreciation slows to historical levels. Some will be financially over-extended where a property's appreciation will be given a real run for its money -- no pun intended -- with the baggage of its first and second mortgages.
I don't think Mauldin is old fashioned; we saw before about "new paradigms" and how that ended up. Howver, the trick will be to get out before hell breaks loose.
IMHO that won't happen very soon.
That Mauldin piece was very interesting.
I disagree with when he said "a negative trade gap is, of course, a drag on the U.S. economy". How is that an economic drag? The rest of the world is financing our consumption by buying all kinds of U.S. Treasury bonds, Ginny-Mae's included. The question is how long will the rest of the world continue to finance our consumption?
My guess is they will continue to do so until American stop taking money out of their houses via home equity loans. No doubt the banks they are dealing with are selling those loans in great big packages ... probably to lenders of all kinds, foreign and domestic.
So buyers of U.S. Treasuries sort of have the payments on that debt and even the value of the U.S. dollars in their own hands. They are in the driver's seat when it comes to our consumption.
Home equity loans will probably reach a limit when the house's appreciation in value is matched by interest payments -- something that depreciatates from its appreciation so to speak. That day will come sooner or later as short term interest rates increase and real estate appreciation slows to historical levels. Some will be financially over-extended where a property's appreciation will be given a real run for its money -- no pun intended -- with the baggage of its first and second mortgages.
I don't think Mauldin is old fashioned; we saw before about "new paradigms" and how that ended up. Howver, the trick will be to get out before hell breaks loose.
IMHO that won't happen very soon.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
teknobucks wrote:
Today, the declines broke through my trailing stop of 1221.
So, it's back to capital preservation with TSP and ST.
I really think that the market would have advanced if not for energy costs.
But, too risky!
Now, we look for the floor?
Rgds Spaf
teknobucks wrote:
Tekno,seriously i will not risk much more here till i see a floor.
Today, the declines broke through my trailing stop of 1221.
So, it's back to capital preservation with TSP and ST.
I really think that the market would have advanced if not for energy costs.
But, too risky!
Now, we look for the floor?
Rgds
Spaf
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
Look out for the BULL TRAP.......:x:U
:dude:
Look out for the BULL TRAP.......:x:U
:dude:
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Spaf wrote:
Spaf wrote:
WAIT! Do you have room for one more?:#
D
Dave M
Guest
imported post
Methinks there is profit to be made. I ambuying.
Dave
Methinks there is profit to be made. I ambuying.
Dave
coolhand
Well-known member
imported post
Dave M wrote:
where do you guysmeet for choir practice?
Dave M wrote:
looking a little better after the 1200 deadline.i'm still bullish over the long haul. highly suspect we are going to test the 1240s in the s&p before the month is out so don't think i'll be sitting in the boat for long.
where do you guysmeet for choir practice?
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
Hey...can you guys sing the Blues????:l
Ain't got no satisfaction ....yet...plug the holes you blimeeees!!!! Cast away!!!! Arrrrrrrgggghhhhh!!!!!
I didn't get on board alot last week or so ........So ....what did you guys do with DMA???? Was he being a bad boy again????:shock:
Well in any case he was very informative....gonna miss him even though he had his rough edges.......:?
:dude:
Hey...can you guys sing the Blues????:l
Ain't got no satisfaction ....yet...plug the holes you blimeeees!!!! Cast away!!!! Arrrrrrrgggghhhhh!!!!!
I didn't get on board alot last week or so ........So ....what did you guys do with DMA???? Was he being a bad boy again????:shock:
Well in any case he was very informative....gonna miss him even though he had his rough edges.......:?
:dude:
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
The Technician wrote:
The Technician wrote:
I don't have a clue. Does anyone know what the precipitant factors were? I'm curious.
T
TSP_Elvis
Guest
imported post
The Technician wrote:
And then one day the market fell and Birchtree lost his boat and he had to steal a coat in the ghettoooooooooooo.
In the ghettoooooooooo
The Technician wrote:
As the snow flysssss, on a cold and grey Chicago mornin' a poor little baby child is born in the ghettooooo. And his momma criesssss.Cause if there's one that she don't need it's another hungry mouth to feed in the ghettoooooooooo.
And then one day the market fell and Birchtree lost his boat and he had to steal a coat in the ghettoooooooooooo.
In the ghettoooooooooo
G
Guest
Guest
T
TSP_Elvis
Guest
imported post
Uh thank ya, thank ya very much.
E
Uh thank ya, thank ya very much.
E
