Market Talk

[SkyPilot]

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DMA Said :

The board has had it wheels fall off (no offense wheels) in the last 24 hours.

Everyone scared to post?


DMA,

From much of the feedback I get, people seem to feel that their thoughts and opinions may not be valued, and to risk expression would invite ridicule, derision and insult. We must be kind to one another if we are to build community, so that individuals can feel safe to participate.

Whether you realize it or not, some of your posts and replies are seen by many as threatening. This is a result of personalizing your opinions, rather than stating them objectively.This is commonly perceived as bullying.If you will notice, there are only a couple of members who will even interact with you. To the extent that you continue in this manner, the fewer activeparticipants there will be.

SkyPilot

 

[nnuut]

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Amen, Sky Pilot!:^

 

[Birchtree]

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Skypilot,

Actually I think dma is in love with one of the Al Gore girls - sounds just like his future father-in-law. He just doesn't like to put his toes in cold water - when the environment warms up some I think he will not be so defensive.

I believe he has other people's best interest at heart - The Technician is similar in his out look. They just want to protect the timid from guys like me - bullish adventurist - ready to smell fresh money. Please allow them to keep the penny - give me .25.

 

[coolhand]

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ou81200 wrote:

Naw---Ain't much to say.

Agreed.Much of the news is not new.

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date May26 Closing


Market News.

News:Krude must pay! Local constable says even if DA dropped case against Krude, he will still have to pay stable bill. When Fill-er-up was in the stable while Krude was in the can, he ate all the feed in the stable. Thus lube was up only slightly +$0.03 at 51.01, and still in the worry range (50-55).

Elsewhere: Market sales boeinged up with news that quarter sales were rethunked upward.


Doodles and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closing at1197.62 up +7.61.
CMF (money flow) at0.393, up sharply.

$BPSPX (breadth)
RSI (strength) at59.37, up and inmidrange.
MACD (trend) at -0.53, rising, bullish.

Tea Leaves: Green.


Yak.

Remarks: Changing to 0/100 (60C, 40S) COB 5-27. Two days of 8% in the I fund was enough.

Need to clear the 1200 marker so Ferdinand doesn't step in a bull trap.

Oil still seems to be the biggest detractor to an advancing market.

Setting up a 2% paper stop loss (1200x2%) at a -24 for the S&P. Will see how it works. Any comments will be appreciated! Now is the time to have an exit plan on the shelf.

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[learning]

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Well, I will take some bad comments. I do not care. Take pot shots at me if that is your deal. You can not hurt me, for you do not know me. Even if you did, who cares. I do like it when people get along.

Why Have I not posted much? I am ashamed to say I thought the market would have gone down more then it did. I saw the bear going down to the 1135 area before we saw a bull come out of the shute.I waited way to long and missed the ride. I have some in, just not near enough. And, yes there is the I fund I have some in there too. So I have nothing to brag about. I have watied to put more money in for a day that looks like it will take a nice hitof profit taking. On the good side I have not lost much as I got out in January after the third trading day and dabbled a little with some fair results. I suspect that we have a bull coming out of the shute and I missed it. Trying to get on this bull is dangerous though.

So here is why I have not posted much. To those of you that are on the bull GOOD JOB. :!

 

[Birchtree]

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learning,

You might have missed the first 500 points of the bull ride - but the train is slowly pulling out of the station with time left for you to get on and ride the next 3000 points. C'mon get on board - make some money while Ferdinand is allowing you to participate - fear is good and healthy. We are only in the third inning of a nine inning game.

Dennis

 

[teknobucks]

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SkyPilot wrote:

DMA Said :

The board has had it wheels fall off (no offense wheels) in the last 24 hours.

Everyone scared to post?


DMA,

From much of the feedback I get, people seem to feel that their thoughts and opinions may not be valued, and to risk expression would invite ridicule, derision and insult. We must be kind to one another if we are to build community, so that individuals can feel safe to participate.

Whether you realize it or not, some of your posts and replies are seen by many as threatening. This is a result of personalizing your opinions, rather than stating them objectively.This is commonly perceived as bullying.If you will notice, there are only a couple of members who will even interact with you. To the extent that you continue in this manner, the fewer activeparticipants there will be.

SkyPilot

sky i try my best to keep this bumped along with these bears......but i'm only allowed to post on up days....LOL

WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!

still bullish...tekno

 

[teknobucks]

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http://stockwerld.com/marketeye.htm

 

[teknobucks]

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time 2 put the hammer down....we rally thru eoy now.

mho

 

[tsptalk]

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SkyPilot wrote:

From much of the feedback I get, people seem to feel that their thoughts and opinions may not be valued, and to risk expression would invite ridicule, derision and insult. We must be kind to one another if we are to build community, so that individuals can feel safe to participate.

Whether you realize it or not, some of your posts and replies are seen by many as threatening. This is a result of personalizing your opinions, rather than stating them objectively.This is commonly perceived as bullying.If you will notice, there are only a couple of members who will even interact with you. To the extent that you continue in this manner, the fewer activeparticipants there will be.

Well put Sky!

 

[Spaf]

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Yep Sky ur da moderator........just doing ur job!

.......................................................................................................................

Hey Learning U still out there!

Last time we had a break-out up we ran into a bull trap. :X This time is hopefully different. :^ The fundamentals seem a lot better. Birch is right, if you want to be with the advance get on board. :u

Oil will be a market worry in the 50-55 range. Under 50 is OK, over 55 and it near panic. Money is coming in at a strong pace. We are in mid range, not over bought or oversold. Moving averages are good. I would side with Tom about having several good weeks ahead. The problem as I see it is keeping Krude in the can. Ya see Birch went and named the bull market "Ferdinand".Learning,..... no respectable farmer evers kills a critter once it's been named. Whom ever kills a named critter is a.

Have a good day my friend! Spaf

 

[Mike]

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Today's thoughts:

Personal income / outlays and consumer sentiment are the only two economic tidbits coming out today (neither of which is considered terribly important by the market), which means that the only likely market drivers today will be oil prices and rumors about what's coming next week (read below). Foreign markets are mixed - Europe is down a bit, the far east is up over 1%. If the dollar drops back a bit today, I would expect the I fund to eke out a few cents.

Next week is when the fireworks happen...
Consumer confidence (May 31)
Factory orders (Jun 2)
Initial claims (Jun 2)- last two have been in the 320-325k range (good)
May jobs report (Jun 3) - consensus forecast is for 180k.

If expectations are met, the rally will continue on - and would likely threaten March's S&P high. If Friday's jobs report disappoints however, we are almost certain to see a quick and steep pullback (which would probably be good long-term due to that wholecontrarian market behavior Tom has posted before - but would certainly be painful in the short term).

 

[tsptalk]

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Mike wrote:

Today's thoughts:

If expectations are met, the rally will continue on - and would likely threaten March's S&P high. If Friday's jobs report disappoints however, we are almost certain to see a quick and steep pullback (which would probably be good long-term due to that wholecontrarian market behavior Tom has posted before - but would certainly be painful in the short term).

Hi Mike -
I agree, those report can be big in determining how high we go.

I assume when you say "disappoints" when referring to the jobs reort, you mean fewer jobs than expected.Keep in mind is that a strong jobs report may be just as bad as a weak one because of inflation / interest rate concerns.

The best report would be within 10K of that180K you mention

 

[teknobucks]

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little dip 2 buy into this AM!:^

put your $$$$$$$ in front of this rally folks.

jmho

 

[teknobucks]

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Check out the chart at the bottom of this link: VTO Report equity options.
What caught my eye was the 21DMA which is falling.
What I see in the chart is that as long as it keeps falling the market does OK. (In general)
But when it reverses, the market seems to follow shortly thereafter.
Overall it has been rising since January but sharply reversed at the end of April.

surf credit due: rogerdodger

 

[teknobucks]

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short sales

http://www.investmenttools.com/thefed/specialist_short_sales.htm

 

[teknobucks]

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two looooong interesting oil posts on RB

http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB01194&read=86950

http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB01194&read=86951

 

[teknobucks]

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Almost Unlimited Inexpensive Natural Gas Substitute http://pesn.com/2005/05/16/6900096_Syngas/ Fairchild International Corp. Announces Discovery of Almost Unlimited Inexpensive Natural Gas Substitute
No airborne emissions from inexpensive process that creates gas from biomass, waste wood, and low-grade coal.

Adapted by Pure Energy Systems News


SynGas Generator
VANCOUVER, B.C., CANADA -- SynGas has completed development of its synthetic, low-cost, natural gas production technology. Fairchild International Corporation (OTCBB:FCHL), the holding company for SynGas, is encouraged by the preliminary test results.

The prototype model has already been successfully tested using a number of inputs including low-grade coal, wood waste and other biomass, yielding superior results with lower costs and emissions than currently available technology. The SynGas technology produces electricity and/or pipeline quality synthetic gas, as a replacement for quickly depleting natural gas and oil, at low costs, with the additional benefit of zero airborne emissions.

Anish Somani, Fairchild President said, "Synthetic natural gas "SynGas" has the potential to replace natural gas in powering our communities, homes and industrial plants in the future. Our technology allows us to produce SynGas cheaper than the current costs of processing gas. Our new approach allows us to take the guess work out of exploration activities in an era when traditional fossil fuels have become expensive and scarce."

The prototype unit Model 2 (M-2) has garnered interest from various levels of government and industry worldwide.

Somani stated, "Our technology should propel Fairchild to the forefront of the emergence of a new multi-billion dollar market for Alternative Energy. SynGas' Model 2 gas and synthetic natural gas technology provide a low-cost solution to the supply of gas to America, without discharging harmful pollutants into the environment."

SynGas Energy's technology and products purport several distinct competitive advantages:

Produce pipeline quality synthetic natural gas using readily available fuels (biomass, waste wood, coal etc.)
"Waste" heat recycled
Lower production costs than currently available technologies.
Less expensive to operate.
Environmentally friendly. Low or negligible airborne emissions or other pollutants.
Less than 1/2 the CO2 production per gJ
Portability: Factory order and move from state to state or country-to-country as and when needed due to the ability to use a variety of fuel sources. For example, an M-2 using wood waste could easily be moved to a coal rich area to produce gas.
Compact, Scalable Power: M-2's can be constructed on a small scale and expanded as the need arises. This saves money upfront and eliminates the need to order large permanent units until the need arises. SynGas' M-2's can scale from a small town to an entire city.
Flexible: The M-2 can use almost any carbon based material as an input such as wood waste, coal sludge, low grade coal, and bio waste to name a few. Other technology's can generally only use inputs for which they are purpose built.
Efficient: The M-2 operates economically for a low cost advantage.
Fairchild International Corp. acquired SynGas Energy Corp. on March 08, 2005. According to its home page, it disposed of all its assets and associated liabilities in order to do so, to seize this alternative energy opportunity.

 

[teknobucks]

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Get Ready For Gold's Rebound
Curtis Hesler, Professional Timing Service, 05.26.05, 2:40 PM ET

MISSOULA, MONT. - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index and the Gold Bugs Index both topped out last November at about 30% higher than they are presently. These corrections in the metals can be brutal, but there is little evidence in my technical work that the bull market in commodities--or in precious metals specifically--is over. In fact, it appears that the correction has all but run its course, and the next significant move will be to the up side.

How far? I fully expect to see new highs in gold by year's end. The next sticking point will be $500 in bullion. However, it is important to recognize the leverage factor inherent between the price of gold and the profitability of gold-mining companies.

Essentially, if a mine produces gold for $300 per ounce and gold sells for $300 per ounce, they are obviously at break-even. Every dollar that gold rises from that point falls directly to the bottom line as profit--hence the leverage and the reason gold shares tend to be more volatile than bullion.

The price of gold is also reflected in the value of the mine's reserves and inventory of bullion if they tend to hold back production, as Goldcorp (nyse: GG - news - people ) does. A higher price of gold means the mining company's assets are worth more.

So, there should be a relationship between the price of gold and the price of gold-mining shares. This relationship is most evident between the price of gold and the price of gold-mining averages, like the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index ( XAU) and Gold Bugs Index ( HUI) .

If you divide the price of gold by the price of the XAU, you will see this relationship as the gold\XAU ratio. The ratio cycles between four times on the low side when mining stocks are relatively expensive compared with the price of gold and five on the up side when precious metal shares are inexpensive relative to the price of gold.

The dollar plays into this in that gold bullion prices tend to move opposite to the value of the U.S. dollar. The dollar index has been gradually rising since reaching a low last December, and this has put a damper on the price of gold bullion. However, gold has held up fairly well, only falling about 9.5% from its December high. The real damage has been in the mining shares.

This has recently put the gold/XAU ratio at 5.25. Rarely do you see it over 5.50, which is a screaming buy signal for gold shares. There may or may not be additional weakness in the mining stocks and XAU; but in the past when the ratio has hit 5.25 or higher, gold stocks were a screaming buy.

Incidentally, my work in the dollar is turning negative also and that bodes well for higher gold prices this summer. I believe the next leg in the commodity bull market will take gold to $500.

What to buy? I like Yamana (amex: AUY - news - people ) and Western Silver (amex: WTZ - news - people ) from my list of junior mining stocks. There is an interesting longer shot in Mines Management (amex: MGN - news - people ). They are developing a silver mine just north of Missoula, Mont., where I live. It will be two years yet until this mine begins production, but it will likely be one of the largest silver mines in the world.

As for the major producers, I like Newmont Mining (nyse: NEM - news - people ), regardless of their recent earnings woes. They will work this problem out, and they tend to be an institutional favorite. In the next gold run, you will see precious metals being taken more seriously by a wider segment of investors, including institutions.

Here is a bit of a surprise--Anglogold Ashanti (nyse: AU - news - people ). They have been very strong lately, leading the pack, so to speak.

The juniors could easily double from here. Newmont had a high of $49.98, and Anglo hit $42.40 last November. I expect both of these to surpass those highs in the next bull leg.

The commodity bull is not over--far from it. China and India, together with nearly two billion souls, will become the largest consumers of commodities, including energy, gold, silver and everything else. If you have a few dollars to invest in precious metals, you will rarely find a time when the mining stocks are this cheap.