Market Talk

[Spaf]

imported post

The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: May 22, 2005


Market News.

-> http://www.briefing.com/Silver/InBrief/PageOne.htm
-> http://www.money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/

Market Talk: Market sales slowed last Friday morning as shoppers cashed in on deals. Later shoppers returned for more good buys, reversing the AM trend, and still controlling the market.

Elsewhere: Krude and cousin Enflate are scheduled for trial later this week. Krudes horse Fill-er-up was still at vet, costing Krude a -$0.09, and settling in at 48.65.


Doodles, and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:
$SPX (S&P 500 Index)
Closing at 1189.28 dn slightly at -1.80
CMF (money flow) at 0.271, strong.

$BPSPX (S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index (breadth))
RSI (strength) at 49.3, in midrange.
MACD (trend) at -1.71 and rising bullish.

Attachment: S&P (3mo) chart ending 05-20. Added: 50dMA,and notes.

Tea leaves: Green, with caution: still in trading range.


Yak.

Holding 0/100 (50C, 50S).

For this month in TSP, so far: G=+0.02, F=+0.03, C=+0.31, S=+0.54, I=-0.03

Was the despair of two weeks ago enough? The first stage of a bull market is accumulation, was that last week? Stocks have bottomed, firmed up, and there has been secondary moves forming new lows. However, a confirmed bullish primary movement would need to surpass the previous peak.
Was 1191 (S&P) the previous peak? The market met 1191 on Thursday, but skidded under it on Friday. What will happen this week; will we surpass it and turn bullish, fall into a bull trap, or, return to the trading range?
Interesting!!!

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[Birchtree]

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Greg,

You mean you can talk but we can't talk back on your blog!

You sound so good-just what I needed to hear. Listen to this-the index of manufacturing activity has now trended down for 5 consecutive months in April. It peaked at 61.6 last July and is now at 53.3. After 23 consecutive months of expansion in the manufacturing sector, a slow down was inevitable.

I bet that factoid warms your bearish heart-wait there is more.

It's important to note it's the longest run of growth in manufacturing in 16 years. ooh so strong, for so long-I bet they make....never mind.

Where can I catch up to that other salty dog-Dogdaddy-is he with you in the shelter.

 

[Spaf]

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Market rumor talk at CNNMoney: http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/20/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm

 

[Spaf]

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More Market Yak!
http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp

 

[Skip]

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Anybody study the patterns ?
My take... Look at Spaf's chart

Something to look at is the cup pattern forming in the sp500 ! From the 1st part of april to Thursday was a perfect cup..
Now look for a pull back to make the handle. And shake out the weak hands. When the sp500 gets back to fridays close and breaks it that will be the time to be fully in... If it fails to breakout then be a bear..
Skip

 

[The_Technician]

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Wellll here is what I see....

For the Bears.....looks like we could visit 1155 or so on the S&P...if we get there it could be a good point to get in.....for a moment....then we may visit 1140 or below after that...for a moment....

For the Bulls.....we'r'e going down to 1155 or so in the near term....and will be trading around 1190's for the high......not to change for a couple of weeks...trading is possible between 1140 and 1190's for the next several weeks....I'll update later on this....

And thats the way I see it!!!!:shock:

The Technician :dude:

 

[teknobucks]

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going to 100 G...waiting 4 pullback.

will re-enter market 100 % after.:^

tekno

 

[teknobucks]

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FOMC minutes tomm. should shake market a bit.

 

[Birchtree]

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Teknobucks,

Don't be gone too long - I'll be waiting for your return. I enjoy your company.

 

[teknobucks]

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still feel strongly about market moving up for rest of year...just too far too fast here.

needs a little pause.

c ya

 

[Mike]

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Did you guys not read Tom's market comments today? :%

I can say one thing for certain: the C and S funds will NOT correct 3-5% in the next couple of days. For any realistic chance of that to happen, the FOMC minutes would have to be absolutely horrible and scream to the market that "inflation is out of control".

 

[Guest]

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Something got to get the yield curve to move.

10 year is down another 1% now.

Fed has no room to raise interest rates without inverting the yield curve.

Dumb money stocks, smart money bonds.

Mike good, we all good.

Anyway we all need to pause and watch the bond market once in awhile. It it helpful.

 

[Birchtree]

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Mike,

There you go with that critical eye again - do you make promises.

DMA,

Sorry watching the bond market is like watching grass grow- although BULLS do eat grass. The Fed has learned to follow the bond vigilantes - inversion hopefully won't happen. If it is allowed to happen the country will throw dirt on him.

 

[Mike]

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I'm no investment big-wig, so my analysis isn't worth much.

However, I will say that we are unlikely to see a big move in either direction this week (>3%). Unless there's some big negative surprise (read: surprisingly negativeFOMC minutes released tomorrow and/or a sudden jump in oil prices), I think that the market will add another 1-2% in gains. I expect the S&P to be on the low end of that, hovering right around the 1200 mark at the end of Friday's trading.

With inflation supposedly under control and less of a concern, the S fund will gain right along with the C fund, and it might even manage to outperform by a little bit. I don't know where the I fund is headed in the short term... and under no circumstances would I put more than 20% in there until I see solid evidence that the dollar's advance is slowing / reversing.

 

[Spaf]

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Mike

DMA wrote:

It appears we are a board of six or seven now.

The Magnificent and Disfunction Six.

The Sloppy Seven.

Are you a member of the group? It might be more then 6 or 7! With my dyslexia I have to turn my mouse around.

Do you happen to know where I put my monitor?

Spaf

 

[Spaf]

imported post

The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date May23 Closing


Market News.

News:Krude's lawyer Slick argueing for a change of venue.Lube up $0.51 at 49.16.

Elsewhere:Market folks see good sales ahead. A heard of bulls arrived at market.


Doodles and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closing at1193.86 up +4.58
CMF (money flow) at0.251, slightly falling, but strong.

$BPSPX (breadth)
RSI (strength) at54.4, inmidrange.
MACD (trend) at -1.36, rising, bullish.

Tea Leaves: Green.


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 0/100 (50C, 50S).
S&P advanced past previous peak of 1191, confirming primary movement as bullish.

 

[Birchtree]

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Wonder Woman,

What was the name of the Disney bull that did not want to go to the bull ring and fight. He preferred to smell the flowers and rest. It was an animation picture . He refused to fight the Matador. Regards,

Dennis

 

[vectorman]

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Birchtree wrote:

Wonder Woman,

What was the name of the Disney bull that did not want to go to the bull ring and fight. He preferred to smell the flowers and rest. It was an animation picture . He refused to fight the Matador. Regards,

Dennis

Ferdinand the Bull.

http://disneyshorts.toonzone.net/years/1938/ferdinandthebull.html

 

[Guest]

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Ferdinand, the Bull

 

[Guest]

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What is going to happen to the longs...........



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