Market Talk

[Birchtree]

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Teknobucks,

Permabull #1, and I say that with reverence, since you were here long before I arrived would it be ok to assume the position of permabull#2. I knew you would agree- it's a large herd you know.

Are you familiar with the name, Elaine Garzarelli? She has made some very well timed prescient calls in her career. She called the 1987 crash for example. Anyway she was on Kudlow and Co. this evening. What I have to tell you I'll have to whisper. She is looking for a melt up in the sp500 of 25% in the next 6-12 months, to actually exceed the previous high of 1527. Frankly it sounded a lot like something I heard someplace else- oh I know-it was from that renegade contrarian.

You new buddy-DMA has been acting bullish lately-showing bullish graphics.Yet he sits in the local shelter-can't figure him out. Seems like a friendly fellow though. Maybe he wants to make an offer to purchase the rocket ship ticket that is reserved for Wonder Woman. Garzarelli says we float up and then things kick in.

 

[coolhand]

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Hmmmm...I'm thinking I like the direction things are going here. :^

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Closing May 20, 2005

Just a note: At closing today the Friday candlestick made a good old hammer. Just a indicator that the buyers were in control !

Rgds, to all! This weekend looks warm! Spaf

 

[Birchtree]

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Coolhand,

It might be advisable to check sentiment with the System Trader and The Technician if they post over the weekend. That will give you alternate information to help make any decisions you might be ready to undertake. Good luck.

Dennis

 

[robo]

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We should be able to test 1200 on the S&P next week. Might be tough going.........

Lets hope we can keep a large number of bears and shorts frustrated the next couple of weeks. If we can squeeze enough of them, we could even test 1225...

I'mcurrently around 25% long, and guarded for now! We are getting to the high end of the trading range, and Idon't want to risk all of my gains right now.


If the market pulls back early next week, I'm adding 25% on the long side.

I'll be waiting fora pull back around the 1160 level before going 100% long again. July or August if not sooner we should test. It's always some news that scares the heck out of the market. I'm still in the camp 1300 S&P sometime late this year!!!!!!

Lets ride this current rally!!!! The lady still isn't singing, this rallylooks like it has some more to goooooooooooo.. We will know next week..

 

[Guest]

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Birchtree wrote:

.

Are you familiar with the name, Elaine Garzarelli? She has made some very well timed prescient calls in her career. She called the 1987 crash for example. Anyway she was on Kudlow and Co. this evening. What I have to tell you I'll have to whisper. She is looking for a melt up in the sp500 of 25% in the next 6-12 months, to actually exceed the previous high of 1527. Frankly it sounded a lot like something I heard someplace else- oh I know-it was from that renegade contrarian.

A bull on craplow?

No say it ain't so.

Elaine Craprzarelli was bullish the whole bear market. Just like Meeker and Cohen.

She thinks the S&p 500 is 25% undervalued not going up 25%. That would put the PE at a breath taking 26.

She is noise. Craplow is a republician economic chamelon. If Kerry won the election he would be saying sell stock to send this Administration about high gas prices.

The whole paragraph sounds like the May 2000 crowd. Buy the dip. The worse is over. :shock::shock::shock:

Overlay charts of May 2000 and May 2005. Pretty eerie.

 

[Guest]

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Spaf wrote:

The Kingdom of TSP

Closing May 20, 2005

Just a note: At closing today the Friday candlestick made a good old hammer. Just a indicator that the buyers were in control !

Rgds, to all! This weekend looks warm! Spaf

Not sure where you learned your candlesticks from.

We topped:

Next stop 1180 and hope it holds if not 1160 here we come.

 

[Guest]

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[Guest]

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robo wrote:

Lets hope we can keep a large number of bears and shorts frustrated the next couple of weeks. If we can squeeze enough of them, we could even test 1225...

There was no shorts on Friday.

The have been squeezed out by new options contract.

Monday we see the rotten core again.

This whole week was squeezing out the shorts.

That was the cause of the rally.

:^You will not hear that on CNBS.

 

[Birchtree]

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DMA,

Move over-maybe I should come and sit in the shelter with you-providing there is any room left. Elaine was not a Techy person-she has always liked the value play. She was the leader, the leader of the pack. Crying is acceptable around here. You know my response to your other user name was deleted-hope you read it. I said something like, why play around go multiple. Unfortunately it's a lot like making money-some people never get the technique right. Hope you are a good sport. Regards,

Dennis

 

[Guest]

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I am a great sport.

However, Gazarellia is not the person you want to listen too.

Kudlow is not a show you want to watch.

CNBS is not the network to listen too.

Be careful.

Remember DOW is still at levels at 1999 and the Nasdaq is still down nearly 72%.

Do not get greedy.

Take care!

This whole week was a short squeeze and a White House trying to get one last rally for private accounts.

Snow is out poking a stick at China (big mistake), We are going to extend Greenspan, etc, etc.

The one last push for private accounts. We have an agenda.

If the DOW is down 20% and the Nasdaq is down 40%, catch my drift.

Greenspan knows if the FOMC goes one more the yield curve will invert.

He does not care, his marching orders is to get the USD propped up to get foreign investors in and let the whole house of cards crash.

:shock::shock::shock:

 

[robo]

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DMA Wrote

There was no shorts on Friday. They have been squeezed out by new options contract. Monday we see the rotten core again. This whole week was squeezing out the shorts. That was the cause of the rally.You will not hear that on CNBS.

DMA,

Thanks, very good info. I will be very guarded the first part of next week.. I will go 100% G if things turn. I never have a love affair with the Bulls... This market forces you to be a rational investor.. and I always listen to both sides .... Bulls and Bears...

I took profits at 1185 S&P. Staying guarded from this level...........

 

[Guest]

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By strong belief is the FOMC wants to spook the bond market to get the 10 year yield up and will do that on Tuesday.

The yield curve is all ready inverting:

Overnight rate 3%



[size=-1]Maturity[/size]
[size=-1]Yield[/size]
[size=-1]Yesterday[/size]
[size=-1]LastWeek[/size]
[size=-1]LastMonth[/size]

3 Month
2.73
2.71
2.66
2.72

6 Month
2.98
2.99
2.98
2.96

2 Year
3.59
3.61
3.57
3.47

3 Year
3.70
3.70
3.66
3.59

5 Year
3.86
3.83
3.81
3.82

10 Year
4.12
4.10
4.11
4.18

30 Year
4.43
4.44
4.48
4.54

This is NOT a healthy economy.

I believe they will shock the bond market which will cause a sell off in stocks.

I could be wrong but Greenspan has been out there all this work (and this guy does not like to work) trying to put fear into the bond market. Did not move a blip.

Houston we have a problem.

This looks like the crash of 1987 setting up to me.


WOW my chart did not turn out well???

 

[Guest]

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Greenspan sees no housing bubble

 

[Spaf]

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DMA wrote:

Spaf wrote:

The Kingdom of TSP

Closing May 20, 2005

Just a note: At closing today the Friday candlestick made a good old hammer. Just a indicator that the buyers were in control !

Rgds, to all! This weekend looks warm! Spaf

Not sure where you learned your candlesticks from.

We topped:

Next stop 1180 and hope it holds if not 1160 here we come.

DMA

RE: Candlesticks, see attached link:

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/candlesticks.htm

"Not sure where you learned your candlesticks from". Now you know a source.

It was a plesant way to end Friday. Though one indicator does not make the market.

Rgds! Spaf

 

[Guest]

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Only time will tell Spaf.

Hope you are right.



Anyone see Tech or is he face down in a curb?

 

[Birchtree]

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DMA,

You are not The Technician in disguise are you? No of course not you stand on your own TA. I certainly enjoy your inspiring negativity-does my heart good-hope you can keep it up for extended period of time. Have to respect the work, even if it's not in the right direction for the moment. You do realize what happened on the way to 1999? Aside from 1987,1997,1998 it was pretty much a BULL market. I managed to get a piece of that action, good and bad.

Spring 1999 until now has been a 6 year transitional market correction washing out the excesses built up from 1993 until 1999. We are set up for another secular bull market to begin-I'll be watching and waiting for the day when you give up the ghost. How long do you think you can hold your own strategy. Probably not until Robo learns to love the bull, wishfull thinking on my part. Regards,

Dennis

 

[Guest]

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Don't fight the fed.

 

[Spaf]

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[mlk_man]

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The market is going up............

No wait, the market is going down............

No, no, the market is going sideways................

I think I've about covered all the analysts views..........

My view............once social security is converted to individual accounts, if it happens, there's going to be a lot more people in need of medication. ............some are buying Pfizer and such..........I'm buying http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=LIQ-UN.TO&d=t

:^

Tom, I'mgonna change my nic from mlk_man to liqr_man..................:!