Market Talk

[ou81200]

imported post

Teknobucks---

I agree with your opinion about credit. Credit card companies have become too leniant with giving credit to people without credit worthyness. That's why interest rates are the way they are now.

Another thing I've seen is that rates get jacked up for reasons like having too much credit. This is something that is controlled by the credit companies themselves.

I've seen the new bankruptsy laws that are to take effect. I believe the changes will be good, but the key is too control who gets the credit in the first place. The big changes will be for those filing chapter 7 and11. Not much will change for those filing 13 who pay 100 cents on the dollar. The creditors will only loseinterest.They will still get the principle.

 

[grandma]

imported post

teknobucks wrote:

me thinks stox run in historical cycles so do these charts:

http://www.zealllc.com/2002/1929.htm

http://www.lowrisk.com/nasdaq-1929.htm

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/walker030701.html

tekno

Those charts are impressive - a grizzley reminder to keep our wits about us!:shock::s

Thank you !

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

MT

forget what island u claim to be on nowadaze...but heads upTSUNAMI alert 8.2 quake in indonesia moments ago.

 

[grandma]

imported post

The Technician wrote:

Go to China and get a job.....may have a new meaning in the future.....
The Technician

That is about as realistic as being told we had to clean our plates d/t the starving kids in some far-away land.

:iI have a better idea: arrange for the Vigilantes at the southern border to get the illegals onto the Venezuelan oil ships; if China gets the oil, then they should have the south-of-the border workers, too.

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

ou81200 wrote:

Teknobucks---

I agree with your opinion about credit. Credit card companies have become too leniant with giving credit to people without credit worthyness. That's why interest rates are the way they are now.

Another thing I've seen is that rates get jacked up for reasons like having too much credit. This is something that is controlled by the credit companies themselves.

I've seen the new bankruptsy laws that are to take effect. I believe the changes will be good, but the key is too control who gets the credit in the first place. The big changes will be for those filing chapter 7 and11. Not much will change for those filing 13 who pay 100 cents on the dollar. The creditors will only loseinterest.They will still get the principle.

You are correct!

Looks like the rich however still have a major loophole for ditching their debt obligations. Fairly normal for a republican regime....LOL

 

[blueskys4ever]

imported post

There is a new twist to creditcards. It seems that a creditor can immeadiately raise your interest rate if you fail to make a payment on another companys card or if you fail to make a utility bill. This a fairly new development, I am told.

It pays to read the fine print.

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

re-entering equities tomm.

C 14%

S 7%

effective COB tues.

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

SPX and NAZ are pulling up and away from their lower bollinger bands. The stochastics are well into oversold. The MACD difference is showing a turn is in the processes. The DAX is turning up even more agressively. These indicators support the idea of a short term rally. Maybe a 2 or 3 week rally.

dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La1...]http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La1...


dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!L...]http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!L...

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

teknobucks wrote:

These indicators support the idea of a short term rally. Maybe a 2 or 3 week rally.

I agree. I just think we need another ugly day or two to shake out the last of the weak bulls. Monday's action confirmed that to me - low volume rally that sold off late.

But by the end of the week, or next week, a rally should be a slam dunk.

 

[Guest]

imported post

Shouldn't we have got our bi-weekly contribution to our TSP accounts by now?

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

feds really after buffet, does not pay to bad mouth the dollar.

greenbackmust be topping herenew attack of warrenlaunched...LMAO

Investigation of Insurance Puts Buffett in a Spotlight
By TIMOTHY L. O'BRIEN

March 28, 2005


Over the last four decades, Warren E. Buffett has built Berkshire Hathaway into one of the world's largest and most successful insurers. Along the way, he has navigated the stock market with legendary prowess and offered folksy guidelines for proper corporate governance.

Now, with investigators on three continents examining Berkshire affiliates and a deadline looming tomorrow to respond to an Australian regulatory inquiry, Mr. Buffett's company is in the unfamiliar position of having to defend its integrity.


http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/28/business/28buffett.html

 

[Skip]

imported post

earlymarket shows the sp500 off over 2 points... With the overseas market selling off also and the efa I fund is off 1/2% dollar is off very slightly against the euro...

as I write this the sp500 is gainning...plus .66

Just shows how this market has no real direction yet...

 

[Wheels]

imported post

The dollar bears watching now. The dollar index is approaching 85. 85 and a half is a resistance level that has held for quite a while. If stocks bottom out at the same time the dollar tops out, the I fund could take off.

I've been sitting in the G for over a month. I got impatient last week. I jumped into the C for a mere 2 days and had my fat ass handed to me for a quick 1 and half percent loss. Ouch. I, like Tom, am looking for a bottom to get back into stocks. we could be close.

Dave

 

[coolhand]

imported post

I agree wheels. Dollar was weaker today against the Euro and Pound, but slightly stronger against the Yen. I'm expecting it to, at the very least, stabilize for the short term before weakening again. If stocks start to bounce and the dollar begins moving downward again it could be a double bonus. Definitely worth watching.

I've kept 20% in the I through this downtrend andI'm not going to capitulate this time like I did in January. Today was a good sell-off. Shouldn't be too much longer before we put in a bottom and get a good bounce.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

I also agree. Without regard to the EAFE index itself because I will make theassumption that the direction of that index will mirror to some extent that of the U.S. stocks, I still believe the dollar is the key factor and if it does begin topullback, the I fund should be seriously considered once we hit a bottom in U.S. stocks.

But, I would also like to see the dollar show signs of a pullback because the recent rally looks very strong and more than just a short term bounce. Rather a posibble longer term bottom. Many disagree.

 

[Wheels]

imported post

I don't know enough to know what the dollar is going to do. If it breaks through resistance I don't have a clue what is going to happen. And like you say many are calling this a stronger rally. However, if it hits resistance and starts heading down again, then there is a well established pattern that it will sink to about 80-81. I won't gamble in the I until the dollar really appears to have topped out and equities really appear to have bottomed out. Hope it's soon.

Dave

 

[coolhand]

imported post

tsptalk wrote:

But, I would also like to see the dollar show signs of a pullback because the recent rally looks very strong and more than just a short term bounce. Rather a posibble longer term bottom. Many disagree.

The dollar rally was definitely stronger this time. Wegot another quarter pointrate hike (number 7 in a row) and all of a sudden it's enough toget dollar bulls doing cartwheels.

What about inflation? What about the twin deficits? What about oil? Or commodities in general for that matter. Remember, the dollar has been allowed to weaken for the last 3 years to help increase our exports. While we seem to have mostly failed in that regard,I don'tsee how astronger dollar can help with respect to the twin deficits (something the market is only temporarily distracted from).

Having said that however, it is also true that bond prices have finally jumped in response to that last rate hike. That helpsencourage bond investors (forex especially) to keep buying our debt (goody, :?let's make an already dismal situation worse).

Of course a stronger dollar should help lower oil as it is priced in dollars, however one would have to also believe that worldwide consumption will not be an issue. Remember China? Supply and demand?

Also, with ever higher interest rates expectedthrough the year inflation should be somewhat contained, but at the same time we make it continually harder to borrow money, whichslowly puts the brakes on our economy.

And let's not forget about the housing market. Supposedly that has been a big factor in keeping our economy humming.

These things will take time to unfold during the year andso the dollarmay be settling into alonger term bottom Tom, but I doubt it. Of course I'm not ready to commit any more of my TSPto the I fund either, but I'm watching. Let's see what the market data reveals between now and the end of next week. That could give us an idea of just how strong this dollar rally really is. For now I'll be happy with the "C" fund when you say when.

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

i'm happy 2 see todays action

http://stockwerld.com/marketeye.htm

would like 2 see more bottom side to this thing....SPXhit S2 extreme target today...about 1163

http://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?ID=sample&symbol=SP-500&75446#ttop

right at rally band (similar to Hurst envelope).


Targets on NDX are lower 1434 and 1409

http://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?ID=sample&symbol=NDX--X&18836#ttop


buying more tomm. if she goes red in the AM....if green will wait for a better trding entry.

you buy and hold types should jump in....da water is fine.

tekno

ps: C fund will be the fund for some action till dollar goes back into the crapper....jmho

pays 2 be a disciple of: http://www.arbtrading.com/jesselivermore.htm

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

jesse quote:

"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after an investor has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance."

the market will be volitile...the sun will rise tomm andas sure as God made green apples we are in an area where a pullback has occured.

the BIG ?......will there be much more???

the plan: (jesse's that is)

[size=-1]Generally the ideal time to buy with a primary trend is during pullbacks, which are typically shaped like a V. The trick is to guess when the bottom of the V pullback has been reached. Since we cannot know the market future before it happens, scaling allows speculators to only risk a moderate amount in trying to pick the bottom of the V. If you buy in too early, your initial fifth suffers losses and you sell or wait. If you buy in on the right side of the V however, the proper one, all of your scaled trades quickly show profits and soon you are fully deployed with all five fifths of your capital allocated to the winning trade.[/size]

[size=-1]Thus, Livermore-style scaling in with a trend provides great benefits to speculators. It short-circuits emotions, since only a conservative fraction of capital is risked at first and subjected to the capricious whims of greed and fear. It greatly increases the probability of buying right after an interim bottom, since the remainder of the original capital allocated is only scaled in after the initial exploratory trades show a profit. Finally, it reduces the amount of capital at risk until the short-term trends are running in a speculator's favor once again.[/size]

[size=-1]Rather than taking the risky big plunge, it is wisest to scale in gradually to test the waters and see if your market assumptions were right before you are in over your head. This is a hard lesson to learn, as I think we all have to suffer through big losses on big bets before we understand the excellent wisdom inherent in scaling in.[/size]

 

[coolhand]

imported post

teknobucks wrote:

jesse quote:

"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn.

That's the key isn't it. To have conviction in ones decisions requires not only confidence, but knowledge rooted in study and observation. Second guessing can take its toll, so gain a keen understanding of the market and have a strategy.