Market Talk

[Show-me]

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neirbod wrote:

Show-me wrote:

Anyone know why USD is down 1%?

Probably because of the trade deficit figures which are due out on Friday. Those"in the know" are expecting the deficit to widen.

http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

I am watching the dollar closely. If it drops to a certain level, it could be a tipping point where it plummets as those holding dollars decide to dump them, which in turn drops the dollar's value more, prompting more to sell their dollars etc. Of course, the hard part is knowing when to fold. But, with the dollar losing nearly 2% in a week, and about 4% in a month, that is a red flag for me.

I wish Saraho was around. She always had good insight into the dollar and the I fund. Too bad some folks around here chose to chase her off with their behavior.

Eeewww!
Thanks for the insight much appreciated. I agree I wish Saraho would give the board another chance. It is Tom's board an he has the ultimate say on who go's and doesn't. Not that he has to have my approval but his explanation was good enough for me.

 

[Rolo]

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Did she say she was leaving or did she just not reappear? I was off the radar for a bit without warning.

 

[learning]

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Spaf- Good to have you back. You are good.

Sorry to hear another person has been chased away. We need to pool ideas. Sometimes it seems that there are post designed to leed people off. Others seem to like to chase people off. Others see a person trying to hurt others and try and point it out. Not always nice. I am learning who to trust more and more.

I was not sure if the market was going to drop today so I did not move. I would like to see another down day and I believe I will move. I like a 10 pt drop before moving in. (S&P) We have lost 5pts, 5 more please. Proablem is have to decide before 1100 hrs eastern time or 1600 hrs zulu. A lot happens after that. Errrr. I want back in the market.

Take care.

 

[Guest]

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learning wrote:

I was not sure if the market was going to drop today so I did not move. I would like to see another down day and I believe I will move. I like a 10 pt drop before moving in. (S&P) We have lost 5pts, 5 more please. Proablem is have to decide before 1100 hrs eastern time or 1600 hrs zulu. A lot happens after that. Errrr. I want back in the market.

Take care.

I would like to see the C & S drop 2 more straight days like it did today. Just Feb 22nd the stocks where lower than on Dec 1st 04.

I assume Tom is expecting a big drop before he gets back in.

Right now I am 80%G and waiting for an other opportunity like Feb 22nd.

 

[tsptalk]

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greg wrote:

I assume Tom is expecting a big drop before he gets back in.

Not too big. I'd say a potential 4% to 6% drop.

 

[Rolo]

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Worst case, hopefully, a bounce off of the 50-day MA. In any case, I would let it fall and wait for a turn-around. I am thinking 2-3 days of being level, 1210-1223.

 

[Dogdaddy]

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tsptalk wrote:

Not too big. I'd say a potential 4% to 6% drop.

Wow...a "not too big" 4-6% drop would be .52-.78 in the C Fund, .59-.88 in the S Fund, and .66-96 in the I Fund....that sounds VERY BIG to me. Sorry, but I hope it doesn't happen any time soon. :U

 

[Spaf]

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Market weather and Tarot Cards March 8 Closing

Weather:Indexes were down a bit today :{. Some not so good earnings reports + the high price of energy resulted in selling.

Cards (charts): Add a red candlestick. S&P closed at 1219.43, down -5.88. The CMF money flow indicator showed a slight decline, but was positive. RSI relative strength was good. The MACD moving averageswere good with the faster 12 day ema over the slower 26 day ema.

Remarks: Holding 25-75. Stop at 1215.

Rgds! Spaf

 

[fedgolfer]

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spaf, regarding your chart:

the down day in the S&Pstill keeps your breakout on the ascending triangle in form. Not uncommon to have a return below what was once the resistance and now the base of the breakoutlevel (around 1212 or so). I actually like this down day. Hopefully an intraday bounce or doji at or below the old breakout level will create the bigger breakout. My chart analysis is actually at the office, but if I remember correctly I had a target pricearound 13.43 (C-fund price).At least that's my unedumacated short-term prediction for the c-fund.

If S-fund doesn't breakout ofthat double top... we could be seeing further confirmation of the flight to quality/large caps that all the media has been hyping. I won't go back in S-fund until that high is broken or a good bullish-reversal shows up.

 

[learning]

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Spaf wrote:

Remarks: Holding 25-75. Stop at 1215.

Rgds! Spaf

Now, that is funny. Your bail point is my buy point. I suspect thatif it goes down that far we will see people buying stock looking for bargins and that will drive the market up. However, I also was and do intend tostay out of the market starting April tell November. That though is just my plan. Things change. Until the first three days of January, I was going to stay in the market. Three days of bleeding changed that. LOL Im overall bullish through this month. April scared me. Then the oil situation scares me. (Funny part- power companies in the S&P should do good.) OPEC pulls 80 dollars a barrel or even 60 plus in the future and the bleeding will start. It is a lot harder to make money back after lossing it. I know people that are still way down from Sept 11th 2001.

Wishing all well and plenty of green.

 

[Spaf]

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Fedgolfer....Learning

Sometimes I say something and darn if the contrary doesn't happen! The 1215 stop is a temporary figure, 2 points above the prior resistance level of 1213 and 10 points below yesterdays close. Really it should be at the next higher low, which hasen't yet formed. Got my fingers crossed!

Have been studying the MACD. I think it's a keeper and one I'll keep in my chart tool bag. Sometimes I can get hypnotized by looking at daily charts, and have to step back and look at the weekly charts.

But you can't take just charts. You have to take the fundamentals too, the economy, seasonality, sentiment, etc, etc. I kind of relied on Teckno for a lot of that.

Anyway, here's wishing green for tomorrow! Take care!

Rgds! Spaf

 

[tsptalk]

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Dogdaddy wrote:

tsptalk wrote:

Not too big. I'd say a potential 4% to 6% drop.

Wow...a "not too big" 4-6% drop would be .52-.78 in the C Fund, .59-.88 in the S Fund, and .66-96 in the I Fund....that sounds VERY BIG to me. Sorry, but I hope it doesn't happen any time soon. :U

Considering the S&P 500 is up 15% since August, 4 to 6% wouldn't be too bad. A nice refresher before the next leg up.

 

[Spaf]

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Rolo wrote:

Excellent chart, Spaf. Things look fine to me...sure looks up.

Do you examineEFA/EFV also?

Rolo...Sorry for the delay. Been busy with my Govt. job!!!!

EAFE, as of today, March 8 2005, looks pretty good on the charts. 96% buy for short, medium and long term. Changes +.045, +0.29%, and +3.28 YTD %. However it has a (maybe) negative divergence on the MACD Histagram. Something that needs watching.

 

[grandma]

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From 3/7/05 Investment U E-Letter #417 "my best & worst investment moves":
(sorry- I apparently lost thelink - had panic city computer problems yesterday.)

The primary reason to use the trailing stop is to allow your winners to ride as far as possible, following Dennis Gartman's observation... "We know of few things that we can count upon in the world of trading, but we know this: A trend in motion tends to remain in motion far longer and move far farther than anyone wants or can believe..."

InvestmentU.com

just what Spaff has been cautioning! - giving us trailing stop times -

(right?)

Best of the market to all - grandma

 

[deje2000]

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Hi all, I am fairly new here so bare with me.

I heard yesterday that China's economy is slowing. In addition, oil prices have been hovering $55, the dollar is weakening, and Fedsare likelyto raise interest rates again. Should we be pulling out of domestic equities at this time? It sounds more like a bearish market? Currently 10%G, 40% C, $40%S, and 10% Last Thursday.

Thanks for your time.

 

[learning]

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SPAF

I have not been able to study of much of anything. I had been for a time. Things at work are getting a little hot and heavy. Goes that way. In several weeks it should be a little mini vacation at work.

I managed to do a check on the market a little before 1045 and saw a big up swing. So I did not go in. Then it goes down. Watch it will hit around 5 points down. People will bargin shop and I will not be able to join them. Translation. Thuresday the market will be up 5 to 6 points S&P. If its not then I got lucky again. I have been saved a couple of times by not being able to do a change. LOL

However, you do have my prediction.

I need to get into the "I" fund. I just need to figure out how and when. Perhaps a few percent a week. Cost average in.

 

[Spaf]

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learning wrote:

SPAF

People will bargin shop and I will not be able to join them. Translation. Thuresday the market will be up 5 to 6 points S&P. If its not then I got lucky again. I have been saved a couple of times by not being able to do a change. LOL

However, you do have my prediction.

Could be right, I hope so. Kind of busy here to. Will do some checking when I get home. My stop button is blinking. Probably had it set a little high (without a higher low to judge from). Todays weather was a mess of fear.

Where' Tom? Hey Tom. What is your bull vs bear chart saying about now?

Rgds :? Spaf

 

[pyriel]

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Hmmmm.... Pretty quiet. Must be bearish time again...

 

[tsptalk]

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Spaf wrote:

Where' Tom? Hey Tom. What is your bull vs bear chart saying about now?

The AAII numbers come out tomorrow (Thursday) morning. I'll try to post them early but sometimes they don't show until after I leave for work.

 

[tsptalk]

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deje2000 wrote:

Hi all, I am fairly new here so bare with me.

I heard yesterday that China's economy is slowing. In addition, oil prices have been hovering $55, the dollar is weakening, and Fedsare likelyto raise interest rates again. Should we be pulling out of domestic equities at this time? It sounds more like a bearish market? Currently 10%G, 40% C, $40%S, and 10% Last Thursday.

Thanks for your time.

Hi deje... You probably know how I feel ([url]www.tsptalk.com/comments.html[/url]) so I'll let the others take a shot.