Market Talk

[Spaf]

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Market weather and Tarot Cards March 10 Closing

Weather: Indexes were up, dn, up, dn. Conditions very choppy. Perils are oil, inflation and interest rates.

Cards (charts): S&P closed at 1209.25, up +2.24. The CMF money flow indicator is positive, but declining. RSI relative strength was about neutral. The MACD moving averages were positive, but declining.

Remarks: Holding 100-0. Stop at 1215 broken. Market could not sustain breakout. Next lower trend line 1184(edit). Next higher trend line 1225 (edit). I guess this may put the market back in the trading range!

Rgds! Spaf

 

[Mike]

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One can make money in a 40 point trading range. :shock:

 

[coolhand]

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coolhand wrote:

learning wrote:

Last- Those of you in the I fund appear to miss one thing. The British Pound. Euro and Yen, Yang etc... is fine, the pound is where a lot of the money is at. Or am I wrong? I believe the I fund has mostly the Pound then other currencies. It is light on Asia?

It's 71% Europe overall (UK is 25.8%) and 29% Asia/Austrailia of whichthe Yencomprises 21.4%. Those are the two heavyweights.

I took a closer look at this. Here is a link that identifies what countries use the Euro.

http://europa.eu.int/euro/entry.html

I went back to the "I" fund information sheet and took the weight assigned to each Euro-based country as follows:

1. Austria - .2%
2. Belgium - 1.1%
3. Finland - 1.7%
4. France - 9.9%
5. Germany - 7.2%
6. Greece - .5%
7. Ireland - .7%
8. Italy - 3.9%
9. Netherlands - 5.2%
10. Portugal - .4%
11. Spain - 3.7%

In total this comprises 34.5%. That would make the Euro the most heavily weighted currency affecting the "I" fund.

Sothe Euro, Yen and Pound account for 81.7% of the "I" fund in terms of currency exchange rates.

Does anyonesee this differently?

 

[Spaf]

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Mike wrote:

One can make money in a 40 point trading range. :shock:

OK! I'm game. But we will have to keep each other posted on our moves.

I see the range as on the low side, the higher low of 1184 on Feb 22nd, and the high side, the higher high of 1225 on March 7th. Right now we are at 1209.

The bar pattern today was a mix!

What about paper charting one of the range patterns to start with?

I think we will need a seperate topic in the forum, so we don't interfer with others?

What you say Mike?

PS: If you stay in the G-fund too long, all warm and fuzzy, ya fall asleep and start dreaming about bears behind every bush!

 

[Mike]

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I was only in G four days this time.

I don't see a problem in discussing a trading range in market talk - after all, we're trying to find a pattern to this madness.

Note how the S&P climbed a little bit on a day that oil dropped back. That's something to keep an eye on.

 

[neirbod]

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Mike wrote:

I might be stupid for thinking this, but with all this talk about a bad trade report coming, I'm starting to wonder if it's already been priced into the markets *and* the currency. I can't think of any other compelling reason for the dollar dropping so rapidly this week.

You were right. Even after the worse than expected trade report, the dollar barely budged against the euro. Seems the currency traders had already factored in the trade figures.

 

[Spaf]

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Did some research this morning. And the I-fund looks fairly good at TSP share returns, also on the EFA data. Transferring 15% to I. Gotta hold sumptin!

 

[Mike]

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neirbod wrote:

Mike wrote:

I might be stupid for thinking this, but with all this talk about a bad trade report coming, I'm starting to wonder if it's already been priced into the markets *and* the currency. I can't think of any other compelling reason for the dollar dropping so rapidly this week.

You were right. Even after the worse than expected trade report, the dollar barely budged against the euro. Seems the currency traders had already factored in the trade figures.

That's the second time in a month that I've been right. :shock:

A cute girl at work wants to bake me a cake now, too. What's next- rapture?

 

[coolhand]

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Mike wrote:

neirbod wrote:

Mike wrote:

I might be stupid for thinking this, but with all this talk about a bad trade report coming, I'm starting to wonder if it's already been priced into the markets *and* the currency. I can't think of any other compelling reason for the dollar dropping so rapidly this week.

You were right. Even after the worse than expected trade report, the dollar barely budged against the euro. Seems the currency traders had already factored in the trade figures.

That's the second time in a month that I've been right. :shock:

A cute girl at work wants to bake me a cake now, too. What's next- rapture?

I think much of the trade report had been priced already as traders took their postions leading up to today (you were right). It is too early yet to say the dollar has not budged. It is right now slowing getting weaker. Oil prices are moving back up after being down around -1.23 and at present are at -.29.

Mornings are often much different that afternoons.

You have your choice on kind of cake?

 

[Mike]

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She asked what kind I liked, so I'd say that's a yes.

 

[coolhand]

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Mike wrote:

She asked what kind I liked, so I'd say that's a yes.

If rapture occurs, watch out for capture.

 

[coolhand]

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Current report on the currency trades.

http://tinyurl.com/4zdlj

 

[nnuut]

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S&P Down, Down where is the bottom? Any Ideas. I remember a similar fall around July of 2004, I was holding on for the bottom to catch the bounce and it NEVER came--- well about -4 % later. I got out and was CUT TO BITS by that Whipsaw thingy, OUCH! :*

 

[Guest]

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Dr_Dubious wrote:

Can my indicator go three for three this year?

Three times we heard this - the last two times the market ended sharply lower for the week.

Strategists say U.S. stocks are poised for new gains next week after Friday's rally lifted major indexes out of a months-old trading range.

3 for 3 - indicators that work - priceless.

---------------(those who know what is going to happen - priceless)--------------

Upcoming treasury auctions:

Monday has 7 Day, 91 Day and 182 Day T-Bills. Amount has not been specified yet.

5 year on 9 March. No specified amount (normally 2/3 the trade balance shortage)

10 Year on 10 March. No specified amount (normally 1/3 the trade balance shortage).

Reason I included this data is: The foreign central banks have stated in the past three weeks they will not buy more U.S. debt. This will be interesting....at least to me. If they do not buy at the strike price that will mean interest rates will move up to entice them or Snow will take more money out of the TSP Fund to pay the trade balance debt

--------------Go get em!!!!!:^

 

[coolhand]

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nnuut wrote:

S&P Down, Down where is the bottom? Any Ideas. I remember a similar fall around July of 2004, I was holding on for the bottom to catch the bounce and it NEVER came--- well about -4 % later. I got out and was CUT TO BITS by that Whipsaw thingy, OUCH! :*

Good thing you were in the I fund today. I figured if it didn't bounce today it would bounce Monday. I hope. We may have had a small gain on the dollar play today, although it didn't drop nearly as much as I expected.

I think things will be dicey leading up to the FOMC, but I'm holding steady for now in the I fund. Just have this feeling the dollar is poised to drop some more next week.

 

[coolhand]

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Dr_Dubious wrote:

The foreign central banks have stated in the past three weeks they will not buy more U.S. debt. This will be interesting....at least to me. If they do not buy at the strike price that will mean interest rates will move up to entice them or Snow will take more money out of the TSP Fund to pay the trade balance debt

--------------Go get em!!!!!:^

I've been expecting this to happen for a few months now. I think the bond market is only just now starting to get it.

 

[Ragin Cajun]

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Reason I included this data is: The foreign central banks have stated in the past three weeks they will not buy more U.S. debt. This will be interesting....at least to me. If they do not buy at the strike price that will mean interest rates will move up to entice them or Snow will take more money out of the TSP Fund to pay the trade balance debt

--------------Go get em!!!!!:^

Dr. Dubious

Good to hear from you again. So, if you're right and rates head up, can we expect...

F fund down....G fund a good place to stash $$$....C and S probably down....what about I fund?

Thanks,

RC

 

[Rolo]

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Dr_Dubious wrote:

The foreign central banks have stated in the past three weeks they will not buy more U.S. debt. This will be interesting....at least to me. If they do not buy at the strike price that will mean interest rates will move up to entice them or Snow will take more money out of the TSP Fund to pay the trade balance debt

Good point. Would this affect the dollar? (makes it more attractive and go up?)

 

[smedlap]

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One more post Coolhand as you are holding the surehand. You made money today. Obviously more than you thought by playing the I fund as i responded to you. The I will be the hot ride if foreigh countries start to diversify debt holdings. I feel sorry for us as life will change! I fund holds an excellent hand of companies. Warren B.has heavily betagainst the dollar so the ride will be fast as others are following that release. Inflation and interest rates are no friends of the market. Anyone in F fund whatsoever has stagnated these past 2 years and needs an advisor. These are unchartered waters we are heading into and I'm riding 100% I fund as I see the wind behind me, but a good surf. As to the market, I am as perplexed as Tom is. But these are new waters. We'll see soon enough if we ahve a rising surf!

 

[coolhand]

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smedlap wrote:

One more post Coolhand as you are holding the surehand. You made money today. Obviously more than you thought by playing the I fund as i responded to you. The I will be the hot ride if foreigh countries start to diversify debt holdings. I feel sorry for us as life will change! I fund holds an excellent hand of companies. Warren B.has heavily betagainst the dollar so the ride will be fast as others are following that release. Inflation and interest rates are no friends of the market. Anyone in F fund whatsoever has stagnated these past 2 years and needs an advisor. These are unchartered waters we are heading into and I'm riding 100% I fund as I see the wind behind me, but a good surf. As to the market, I am as perplexed as Tom is. But these are new waters. We'll see soon enough if we ahve a rising surf!

I've got my longboard, I'm ready!

Warren may very well be right. Even if we offer higher rates for long term bonds it would be a temporary fix as we do not have control of our deficit spending.

Someone has to pay the bill smedlap. Sooner or later someone has to pay the bill.