Market Talk

[Guest]

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The odds are in his favor. Bull runs normally last around 28 months. We are about 30 months in now. From a stats point of view - he is past due.

 

[Guest]

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Story from the Great White North:

http://www.macleans.ca/topstories/world/article.jsp?content=20050307_101541_101541

Kind of lays it out without the sugarcoating that you hear down here because do not want to lose those ad revenue nickles from rolling in.

 

[blueskys4ever]

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Where is a good place to chart the course of the US Dollar.

If it is so important to the I fund, how come it is not shown in chart form on this site?

 

[blueskys4ever]

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The price of crude oil is soaring, yet a number of the markets are up. Am I missing something here? This has to have an effect at some point, but when?

Any Guesses?

 

[vectorman]

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Evening Tom, you have great patience to be 100% G fund for this length of time.If this turns out to be a true breakout, will the market continue to push up just like the I fund after it broke out. If you don't see a pull back soon, what is your plan on re-entering the market. I knowsome co-workers who are following your moves and wondering the same thing. The day you decide to re-enter the market they're hoping to see your transfer move in time. ThanksTom

 

[tsptalk]

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blueskys4ever wrote:

Where is a good place to chart the course of the US Dollar.

If it is so important to the I fund, how come it is not shown in chart form on this site?

I post it in the market comments from time to time. I get it froma pay site, decisionpoint.com,so I don't want to abuse it too much by posting it too often. I already use their S&P 500 chart several times a week.

You can also seeit atbarchart.com ... [url]http://tinyurl.com/3s8ep[/url]or by using the symbol $DXY in the Stock and Index Quotes at the bottom of the TSP Talk home page. Click on the chart button instead of quote.

 

[tsptalk]

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vectorman wrote:

Evening Tom, you have great patience to be 100% G fund for this length of time.If this turns out to be a true breakout, will the market continue to push up just like the I fund after it broke out. If you don't see a pull back soon, what is your plan on re-entering the market. I knowsome co-workers who are following your moves and wondering the same thing. The day you decide to re-enter the market they're hoping to see your transfer move in time. Thanks

I understand the concern. When I saw that extreme odd-lot short sales stat afetr that 178 point drop, I probably should have acted and got in, but since I missed it, I will be patient. Everything is pointing to a consolidating period so what goes up, must come down. I don't see enough evidence that the market will blast off from here. It may slowly crawl up to entice me in but it will surely drop as soon as I give up. I'm in capital preservation mode and allI have left is patience.

 

[vectorman]

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tsptalk wrote:

vectorman wrote:

Evening Tom, you have great patience to be 100% G fund for this length of time.If this turns out to be a true breakout, will the market continue to push up just like the I fund after it broke out. If you don't see a pull back soon, what is your plan on re-entering the market. I knowsome co-workers who are following your moves and wondering the same thing. The day you decide to re-enter the market they're hoping to see your transfer move in time. Thanks

I understand the concern. When I saw that extreme odd-lot short sales stat afetr that 178 point drop, I probably should have acted and got in, but since I missed it, I will be patient. Everything is pointing to a consolidating period so what goes up, must come down. I don't see enough evidence that the market will blast off from here. It may slowly crawl up to entice me in but it will surely drop as soon as I give up. I'm in capital preservation mode and allI have left is patience.

Last year you taught me the importance of keeping alittle in stocks just in case there is a rally.For you to be 100% G, tells me that you are pretty confident we may see another good pull back. Before, you said you felt the market was over bought. Now its alittle higher and theguests on CNBC are saying buy more. So isn't it still over bought?

 

[vectorman]

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Tom the I fund still seems to be doing well and trending up. Why are you avoiding it,is it just because of the uncertainty of the dollar?

 

[Guest]

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vectorman wrote:

Now its alittle higher and theguests on CNBC are saying buy more.

The talking heads on CNBC are saying buy stock? I have to rethink being in the G fund now?

Actually have you ever heard anyone on CNBC say sell stock raise cash?? You only hear it once - they are not invited back.

If everyone is sitting in cash then their ratings go down. Can not have that.

Just to let you know - those "guests" are dumping shares while saying buy stock. Especially the CEOs - insider selling is at record highs.

When you hear someone say sell stocks, raise cash then let us know - buy stock now is the norm - that is their cheer for ratings - buy stock - watch us - buy stock - watch us. Right through the big bear it was - this is the bottom- this is the bottom - this is the bottom - buy stock. 18 months later and 77.2% on the NASDAQ and 55.8% on the 500 they were right.

Cheerleading None Business Network.

 

[tsptalk]

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vectorman wrote:

Last year you taught me the importance of keeping alittle in stocks just in case there is a rally.For you to be 100% G, tells me that you are pretty confident we may see another good pull back. Before, you said you felt the market was over bought. Now its alittle higher and theguests on CNBC are saying buy more. So isn't it still over bought?

I follow 3 legs of the market, psychology, monetary conditions and valuation. When all 3 are in bullish mode I have a discipline that keeps me at least 50% in stocks. Right now we lost the psychology leg and the monetary conditions are weakening although not bearish. I throw that discipline out the window when we lose a leg but with 2 legs in place we are still OK and I will buy the dips because we will likely just see morebobbing and weaving. If we lose a 2nd leg, I won't even buy the dips.

Tom the I fund still seems to be doing well and trending up. Why are you avoiding it,is it just because of the uncertainty of the dollar?

That is true, the trend is our friend. I just feel that the international markets follow ours to some extent so if I am cautious on stocks, I include the I fund. Although I did mention the other day that if you have a desire to be in stocks, the I fund may be the place. Just remember the volatile high flying fundsfall the hardest if / when they do fall.

 

[Guest]

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tsptalk wrote:

Just remember the volatile high flying fundsfall the hardest if / when they do fall.

Two of the highest flyers last year -

down 40 points - one of my best shorts of the year fell $20 a share the other day:

The darling of wall street:

When you see this type of stocks getting shoot down...the low hanging fruit normally follow.

Only reason the markets are going up is the commodity stocks. Take those out and we are down a lot harder on the year.

Commodities stocks lead to higher prices for the consumer....which means less money to buy stuff.

It will play out. Just a matter of time. This is 2000 again. Something happened. History does repeat itself.

 

[coolhand]

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Some thoughts going into the new week. Not a lot of economic news. Can the bulls keep sentiment going to sustain a rally? We'll see.

http://tinyurl.com/6382o

 

[Show-me]

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Simon Bowers
Monday March 7, 2005
The Guardian

[font=Geneva,Arial,sans-serif]Warren Buffett, one of the world's most successful investors, has launched his most withering attack to date on the US trade deficit, describing Americans as "rich spending junkies" who could turn into a nation of "sharecroppers". [/font]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,12271,1432051,00.html

This from a guy who made $1.6B off the USD.

Good luck this week everyone!

 

[Guest]

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Show-me wrote:

[font=Geneva,Arial,sans-serif]Warren Buffett, one of the world's most successful investors, has launched his most withering attack to date on the US trade deficit, describing Americans as "rich spending junkies" who could turn into a nation of "sharecroppers". [/font]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,12271,1432051,00.html

This from a guy who made $1.6B off the USD.

Good luck this week everyone!

I find it dubious we do not read about this in the U.S. press.

Actually that genious "Senior Economist" Steve Liesman (fleeceman) on CNBC said he could teach Mr Buffett something about investing with regards to holding foreign currencies.

Kermit the Frog Gates made 17B off the fall of the U.S. dollar.

What to hear something else that is dubious? The largest holding in the S fund is Berthsire. The largest holding is betting the market is going down and it is the largest holding? Ironic?? What is ironic it is the 22 largest company in the world and it is in a small cap fund????? Makes no sense to me. Chaos theory will do that for ya.

 

[Spaf]

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Left home, back in the city area today! Good evening!
....................................................................................................................................

Market weather and Tarot Cards

Weather: The S&P and the NASD were up again today. But the DJIA which was up closed slightly lower due to the rise in oil, now 53.89. The market now sees the mainfundamental economic investment villian to be the rising cost of oil. Even a slight hint sends chills through the market.

Right now I am invested in TSP at 25-75 or 25G, 25C, 25S and 25I. My new strategy is to use stops and later trailing stops to safeguard profits. If a fund starts saging or runs in trouble it gets sidelined fast. I'll start my first stop on paper as S&P 1215. Two points above the previous higher high, and 10 points under todays close at 1225.

Cards (charts): The CMF money flow indicator was positive. RSI relative strength was good. The MACD moving averages (ma) good with the faster 13 day ma under the slower 26 day ma, plus the gap was widening suggesting bullish conditions.

Attachment: 3mo S&P chart with 20 day ma. RSI, and MACD.

Rgds!!!! Spaf

 

[Rolo]

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Excellent chart, Spaf. Things look fine to me...sure looks up.

Do you examineEFA/EFV also?

 

[Spaf]

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Rolo wrote:

Do you examineEFA/EFV also?

I'm holding heavy in sector energy funds. Nothing great except sectors/foreign. Small, med., lrg caps mainly in 3% area YTD. EFA=3%. Go www.barchart.com See: markets, ETFs, sellect %YTD.
Jan-Feb data clouded up the flying data. Heading is bullish. Allocations are spread out across all navigation aids (C, S, I) until reception gets better. Oil seems to be the current boobytrap.

Rgds, watch out for oil spots! Spaf

 

[Show-me]

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Anyone know why USD is down 1%?

 

[neirbod]

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Show-me wrote:

Anyone know why USD is down 1%?

Probably because of the trade deficit figures which are due out on Friday. Those"in the know" are expecting the deficit to widen.

http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

I am watching the dollar closely. If it drops to a certain level, it could be a tipping point where it plummets as those holding dollars decide to dump them, which in turn drops the dollar's value more, prompting more to sell their dollars etc. Of course, the hard part is knowing when to fold. But, with the dollar losing nearly 2% in a week, and about 4% in a month, that is a red flag for me.

I wish Saraho was around. She always had good insight into the dollar and the I fund. Too bad some folks around here chose to chase her off with their behavior.