Market Talk Page

[Guest]

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saraho wrote:

the metals and other commodities are as hot as the US markets are cold.

You will find when corporations start passing through their ever increasing commodity costs that is when inflation picks up greatly. Right now corporations have to take the hit because of the Red Giant. Earnings growth will start to come to a quick reversal. U.S. can not compete with the Red Giant. They are happy to keep sending us products on razor thin profit margins. Then they turn around and buy up companies at depressed prices. Like the Borg, that is what I call China. Eat you up and spit you out.

 

[Spaf]

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Mike wrote:

I'm becoming increasingly interested in precious metals as a diversification strategy for non-TSP investment. What can you guys who trade in these things tell me about them? Do you play individual stocks or do you play ETF's? How strong is their performance correlated (or reverse/anti-correlated, actually)to overall stock market performance? Since bonds tend to underperform in a rising interest rate environment, does this make metals a better play now as a way of hedging against a down / choppy market?

Mike.. It is hard holding a government job and doing research for individual stocks. The folks at Vectorvest have their system program that can help. <$10 for a 5 week free trial, see www.vectorvest.com
ETF's are at www.barchart.com see exchange funds. You can sort them best, worst, change, percentage, YTD, etc, etc. An they probably have one for metals.
Not recommending anything, just providing feedback information.

Good hunting Rgds Spaf

 

[Mike]

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Thanks, Spaf - I was trying the lazy man's approach to it in order to decide if further research was warranted.

I'm enjoying my stay in G right now, that's for darn sure. :shock:

 

[Spaf]

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I sort of hedged my allocations with G and I. I still have my foot, but am scared to count my toes. When I see drops of 1.45% like with the S&P, it's time to get out of Dodge. Put the airplane in the hanger, and wait for better days. Will be selling the weakness and waiting for the strength to reappear. I don't thing anyone saw this big of a decline in the forecast, thats one more reason to diversify between the funds. Glad you were in the G-fund.

The market was on too thin of ice to take the weight of high oil, bad news, and a declining $.

Hey Mike maybe we need to start reading tea leaves!

Rgds Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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The market broke through thin ice.

Fundamentals remain good, but plagued by high oil, depressed returns and the falling dollar.

Technical analysis has shifted from neutral to bearish with the establishment of alower high in the S&P market.

Pricing is now intersecting the moving averages (lower).

I feel that TSP should be rated as short with safety in in the non stock funds, at least until better strength is confirmed.

This is the way I see it!

All investments should monitor the AM market with a finger on the cancel button!

Rgds, and be careful! spaf

 

[Guest]

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This just in.

South Korea says:

"The reported rumor of our selling the US unit is untrue," the bank said in a statement, according to AFX-Asia.

It added that the bank will not change the currency composition of its foreign exchange reserves in line with short-term market factors.

Not to sure the impact on this however? I hate markets like this. Just when you get back in the water you get a shark attack that rips your leg off.

 

[Guest]

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Current Results:

1 yr: I 14%, S 8%, C 4% (YTD: I 0.7%, C -2.2%, S -3.5%)

6 mo: I 18%, S 14%, C 8%

3 mo: I 4.8%, S 2.1%, C 0.5%

2 mo: I 1.4%, C -2%, S -2.5%

1 mo: I 4.5%, C 1.3%, S 1.1%

2 wk: I 2.3%, C -1.5%, S -2%

1 wk: I 0.2%, C -1.8%, S -2%

 

[Spaf]

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10:45 Market check.....Stocks higher.....Will go for the sell. EAFE not looking to good. Transfer changed to 100%G.

All ETF's changed to top sectors (energy, resources, emerg. mkts). Sectors can be volatile, only interim available, except foreign mkts.

Well time to get off break! Rgds, and be careful! :? Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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[align=left]Welcome to Bearsville USA
[/align]


[align=left]Well we are not in the city of Bearsville just yet. We are in Bearsville county, and I think we might see the welcome sign futher down this road.

Apparently the smart money left the market at the end of December, early January. That may be why the CMF money flow indicator was so negative, exceeding -0.2 on the S&P charts.

The RSI strength is around 50 or neutral between losses and gains.

The MACD shorter 12 day moving average is crossing over the longer 26 day moving average indicating bearish conditions.

Mainly it is the big picture of the primary movement of the market pointing to bearish conditions. We had a reaction rally and the establishment of a lower high (Feb 16 at 1210.34). To confirm a bear market we would have to decend past the previous low of Jan 24 at 1163.

This is what the charts and The Dow Theory indicates. In the mean time until confirmation, it could be choppy.

Currently 100% G-fund (capital preservation).

Attachment: S&P chart

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

[/align]

 

[Spaf]

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Do we have a ranging market, too timid to go to bullsville, but scared to go to bearsville?

Rgds! The market went that a way :}:{:}:{! Spaf

 

[TEUFEL HUNDEN]

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Eanie meani minei moe which way will the market go?

I preseume everything is going to drop here soon however, I think the dollar will stop gaining ground after this bounce and then the I may start to move on. Still thinking.

I went 35 30 35 CSI Maybe this will equal things out, or I could have went 100% G. I would rather have the shares in something else though.

 

[Guest]

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Did you notice that people who are 100% G love to tell everyone else to "be careful?" Yet,those who are 100% in equities never tell everyone else to be careless? Shouldn't they? *LOL*

 

[Guest]

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Dr_Dubious wrote:

This just in.

South Korea says:

"The reported rumor of our selling the US unit is untrue," the bank said in a statement, according to AFX-Asia.

It added that the bank will not change the currency composition of its foreign exchange reserves in line with short-term market factors.

Not to sure the impact on this however? I hate markets like this. Just when you get back in the water you get a shark attack that rips your leg off.

I love your new pic, MT. *LOL* It's so you.

 

[Rolo]

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saraho wrote:

Yet,those who are 100% in equities never tell everyone else to be careless? Shouldn't they? *LOL*

hahahaha...too funny...INVEST WITH RECKLESS ABANDON!

I did add to my PSPFX position a coupla days ago...

C does appear to be losing its lustre.


heeEEEEeeeyyyy...Doc....care to give me an examination?

 

[Spaf]

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saraho wrote:

Did you notice that people who are 100% G love to tell everyone else to "be careful?"

I say it. But it has no regard to how I'm invested. I'd say it if 100% I-fund.

Mine has a story behind it, in a land far away, in a time long ago. A friend of mine was flying low. A buzzard got past the prop, smack into the windscreen, and all inside the airplane. You can never get the smell out. After that we always told him to "be careful." So if you are flying in the market, be careful (watch out for buzzards).

 

[Guest]

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Spaf wrote:

saraho wrote:

Did you notice that people who are 100% G love to tell everyone else to "be careful?"

I say it. But it has no regard to how I'm invested. I'd say it if 100% I-fund.

Are you on any other boards? I have been on the boards where everyone agrees with each other and picks off the people that have a different point of view. Those boards did not do to well. I want to be able to grow my TSP and retire early. Not have exchanges with people that are losing money and taking it out on the ones that stick by their guns. This appears to be a pick em off board. I do not have time for this.

Ta

 

[Rolo]

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Dr_Dubious wrote:

Are you on any other boards?

Personal attack...that means you have nothing of value to say.

Dr_Dubious wrote:

I have been on the boards where everyone agrees with each other and picks off the people that have a different point of view. Those boards did not do to well.

Everyone doesn't agree on here; we just don't fight about it. We listen and accept. This board is doing very well, so, basically, your inference just sucks.

Dr_Dubious wrote:

I want to be able to grow my TSP and retire early.

Nobody doubts that. However, you are a zealot on some crusade, Don. If someone doesn't readily, blindly accept everything you say, you go bonkers. Whassup wit dat?

Dr_Dubious wrote:

Not have exchanges with people that are losing money and taking it out on the ones that stick by their guns.

Who has blamed you for his own losses? Nobody...so WTF are you talking about? You sound like a recording.

Dr_Dubious wrote:

This appears to be a pick em off board.

No, this is a share-ideas-and-grow-collectively-and-pick-on-saraho board.

We poke fun. You bash maliciously. We put the fun in fund. You onlyput the F-U in fund.

Dr_Dubious wrote:

I do not have time for this.

Apparently you have gobs of it. You just find us all simply irresistable!*



*(that is an AAPL reference...the Mac IIsi...is what the si stood for)

 

[Spaf]

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Rolo wrote:

Everyone doesn't agree on here; we just don't fight about it.

Agree :^

......................................................................................................................................

NOW, About this market!

The market seems to be acting very erratic. Up, down, up, down. Some say that it is the oil and the dollar. tsptalk even had a pole! Traders have mixed opinion. Charts say we are headed to Bearsville and a few days later it appears to have reversed course to Bullsville.

It's almost impossible to distinguish a trend for the direction of the market. Plus we are limited to one bond fund and three stock funds in TSP, plus a 1-2 day transfer time. Some of the sector funds are doing quite well, but we don't have that option.

This is like flying on the edge of a thunderstorm. Really, we need better weather for investing. At this point I would agree with others that right now it's speculation. The market needs to calm down. In my humble opinion the weather is too risky! Now having said this, market are you listening? You can calm down any time!

Charts don't show a consistancy, moving averages are up and down, strength is nill, and this is really a difficult time for us position traders i.e., today was flat all AM and the market has a small rally in the PM.

So, I'm going to take a neutral position in the G-fund. There was a time when the bears were bears and the bulls were bulls. Now we have barebulls. Saraho used the term "permabear" n. A bear with a hair wave.

Where did Teknobucks go? Is he on vacation?

Anyway, I'm attaching another chart of the S&P, mainly to share the erratic conditions of the market.

Rgds. Spaf

 

[Guest]

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This market is driving by economic news. Tomorrow however is a big one GDP. If you are on the right side of that report you should do well. If you are on the wrong side then we can have a Tuesday repeat. But now with mortgage rates moving up we also have the existing home sales report. Last year the existing home sales report was not even a thing to keep in mind.

Being invested is speculation to me right now. The market can not shrug off a bad GDP report anymore. The surprise bad durable report lead to a afternoon "want dressing with your salad?" rally.

Crude is still over $50. However the TSP money hits tomorrow. Normally when TSP money hits it is a up day, down Monday. Last year I would of went all on Wednesday and sold tomorrow. In hindsight that could of worked (damn) but is it worth the risk? To me it is not, to others it is.

I think Tekno is burned out with all the end between post crap. I hope he comes back. He has helped me greatly.

 

[Spaf]

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Agree! This ain't investing, it's speculation. I heard that the market should be up in the AM and the PM was a toss-up. Heck, thats too risky! The way I look at it, under these conditions the G-fund is perfect. Preserve what I have, and play another day when the weather shows some good trends!

I miss Tekno, he was rather good with the posting of the fundamentals, that took a lot of research on his part.

Rgds Spaf