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Market Talk Page March 21-24
- Thread starter blueskys4ever
- Start date
Show-me
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 104
imported post
Looking for the bright side here. So, if investors are buying USD up that means the sentiment is that the USD will go down substantially. Correct? So a correction in the USD should occur this week? So the I fund may be the place to be?
Wish I was getting back in I fund today instead of a couple days ago! Aaargggg the pain............:l Someone told me to get out of the market before April 22.:shock:
Looking for the bright side here. So, if investors are buying USD up that means the sentiment is that the USD will go down substantially. Correct? So a correction in the USD should occur this week? So the I fund may be the place to be?
Wish I was getting back in I fund today instead of a couple days ago! Aaargggg the pain............:l Someone told me to get out of the market before April 22.:shock:
Show-me
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 104
imported post
Spaf wrote:
Spaf wrote:
OK the more I think the less sense it makes. If the Fed raises rates won't the dollar go down? If the foreign investors buy dollars now won't they lose money if the dollar go's down? I mean high debt with weaker markets= higher or lower value in the dollar? Or are they shorting the dollar? Sorry to be so thick on this one. The I fund has beat me into.................:s
imported post
Can you see when and how, what the Fed said hit the market? That was bloody. The market had already taken a hit, leading into today. Then this hit that hard and fast. Now, watch, 3 weeks from today another hit is going to happen. People may start to move early as they will see it coming and get out/ or move. The minutes will be more brutal then what was said today. I HAVE BEEN WRONG BEFORE THOUGH. IF I WAS THAT GOOD I WOULD BE A TRILLIONAIRE.
(This is just my thought. Not something to move on. Sharing ideas from a person who is still learning and behind the curve.:?)
I am still watching the I fund. I good point to jump in may be here soon.
Can you see when and how, what the Fed said hit the market? That was bloody. The market had already taken a hit, leading into today. Then this hit that hard and fast. Now, watch, 3 weeks from today another hit is going to happen. People may start to move early as they will see it coming and get out/ or move. The minutes will be more brutal then what was said today. I HAVE BEEN WRONG BEFORE THOUGH. IF I WAS THAT GOOD I WOULD BE A TRILLIONAIRE.
(This is just my thought. Not something to move on. Sharing ideas from a person who is still learning and behind the curve.:?)I am still watching the I fund. I good point to jump in may be here soon.
riskybusiness
First Allocation
- Reaction score
- 0
imported post
Unfortunately I don't see much of a bright sidein the near/mid term, despite any potential short term rallies. The Fed is likely to continue with quarter point interest rate hikes the next several months, to cover for any rise in inflation. In fact I was listening to Bloomberg radio news from New York this evening, and perhaps these interest rate hikes may come faster in the upcoming months,with perhapsseveral half point increases at faster increments. Thisisn't good news.
Oil and gas prices are still rising, and until theour administration changes its fiscal focus and resources todomestic energy policies,I don't see our economy improving.
Ihaven't "run for the hills" yet with my tsp plan contributions and allocations, but I am poised to do it soon. It was an unpleasant shock to see all the indices up at 2pm, followed by a big drop after the Fed increased it's interest rate today. The idea that interest rate increaseswere going to be delayedis false. I remember the big oneday rally back in February thatwas basedon this news from the Fed, and it wascompletely false.
Currently 20g,15f,20c,20s,25i but may bereplacing with 50g within the next week. If there's a time to take cover it may be fairly soon (if not already).
It's a no win situation for most of us unless you are 100 percent G, and even then you're not beating inflation.
Unfortunately I don't see much of a bright sidein the near/mid term, despite any potential short term rallies. The Fed is likely to continue with quarter point interest rate hikes the next several months, to cover for any rise in inflation. In fact I was listening to Bloomberg radio news from New York this evening, and perhaps these interest rate hikes may come faster in the upcoming months,with perhapsseveral half point increases at faster increments. Thisisn't good news.
Oil and gas prices are still rising, and until theour administration changes its fiscal focus and resources todomestic energy policies,I don't see our economy improving.
Ihaven't "run for the hills" yet with my tsp plan contributions and allocations, but I am poised to do it soon. It was an unpleasant shock to see all the indices up at 2pm, followed by a big drop after the Fed increased it's interest rate today. The idea that interest rate increaseswere going to be delayedis false. I remember the big oneday rally back in February thatwas basedon this news from the Fed, and it wascompletely false.
Currently 20g,15f,20c,20s,25i but may bereplacing with 50g within the next week. If there's a time to take cover it may be fairly soon (if not already).
It's a no win situation for most of us unless you are 100 percent G, and even then you're not beating inflation.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
- Reaction score
- 45
imported post
The Kingdom of TSPThe day of Tuesday March 22nd. 2005: closing
The Daily Wrap
Valley weather, Tea Leaves, and Yak.
Weather: The valley was calm when Big Chief at FOMC began to yak.Yaked about rate and inflation horseman. Other horsemen bolted and before mayhem was over 1% of the valley harvest was burned. One TSP farmer was quoted as"Who
invited him?".
Tea Leaves (charts): S&P closed dn :{-12.07 to 1171.71. CMF money flow near 0.0. RSI strength declining, near oversold, losses winning. MACD averages bearish.
Yak:Caution--DetourFed cart overturned on market rail. Market train ran off tracks last seen heading south.
Rgds! and be careful!
Spaf
The Kingdom of TSPThe day of Tuesday March 22nd. 2005: closing
The Daily Wrap
Valley weather, Tea Leaves, and Yak.
Weather: The valley was calm when Big Chief at FOMC began to yak.Yaked about rate and inflation horseman. Other horsemen bolted and before mayhem was over 1% of the valley harvest was burned. One TSP farmer was quoted as"Who
invited him?".Tea Leaves (charts): S&P closed dn :{-12.07 to 1171.71. CMF money flow near 0.0. RSI strength declining, near oversold, losses winning. MACD averages bearish.
Yak:Caution--DetourFed cart overturned on market rail. Market train ran off tracks last seen heading south.
Rgds! and be careful!
Spafimported post
Show-me wrote:
*****Novice talking here******
Fed raises rates dollar stands better chance of going up? Why? More money to be made in secure areas as you can get better intrest for your money. You put your money where you get the better intrest rates.
This is also why a market can lose money on intrest rates. You get a secure profit for your money and at a higher rate when intrest rates go up. Also companies that borrow money have to pay more for it's use. Profit margins go down. So the market does not like high intrest rates or ones that go up fast.
For this reason people are buying the dollar and it is going up in value. So now you have better intrest rates and the dollar is going up. Making money two fold now.
If the dollar goes down foreign investors will lose money. Could be. If they are in the market and the market does goodthey may win or lose depending on how much the dollar goes down and the market goes up. This can also work in reverse. If they get good intrest for their money they lower the chance of losing. This is the same problem we deal with on the I fund. To them we are the I fund. It is a risk a lot of money to be made and or lost.
I do not know for today but the dollar has been going up for a little while now. So they are not shorting but buying the dollar. This may change soon though. Some countries and banks have indicated that they will hold or buy less dollars. That is if I understand what has been said and done.
NOTE- I AM FAR FROM AN EXPERT. THIS IS MY UNDERSTANDING AND I COULD EASLY BE WRONG. PLEASE, CORRECT ME IF AND WHERE I AM OUT THERE.
THANKS good luck and becareful this is our retirement here.
Show-me wrote:
*****Novice talking here******
Fed raises rates dollar stands better chance of going up? Why? More money to be made in secure areas as you can get better intrest for your money. You put your money where you get the better intrest rates.
This is also why a market can lose money on intrest rates. You get a secure profit for your money and at a higher rate when intrest rates go up. Also companies that borrow money have to pay more for it's use. Profit margins go down. So the market does not like high intrest rates or ones that go up fast.
For this reason people are buying the dollar and it is going up in value. So now you have better intrest rates and the dollar is going up. Making money two fold now.
If the dollar goes down foreign investors will lose money. Could be. If they are in the market and the market does goodthey may win or lose depending on how much the dollar goes down and the market goes up. This can also work in reverse. If they get good intrest for their money they lower the chance of losing. This is the same problem we deal with on the I fund. To them we are the I fund. It is a risk a lot of money to be made and or lost.
I do not know for today but the dollar has been going up for a little while now. So they are not shorting but buying the dollar. This may change soon though. Some countries and banks have indicated that they will hold or buy less dollars. That is if I understand what has been said and done.
NOTE- I AM FAR FROM AN EXPERT. THIS IS MY UNDERSTANDING AND I COULD EASLY BE WRONG. PLEASE, CORRECT ME IF AND WHERE I AM OUT THERE.
THANKS good luck and becareful this is our retirement here.
blueskys4ever
Rising Member
- Reaction score
- 0
imported post
Jimminee cricket, man that was brutal!
How much gloom and broom can a person ask for?
I made a comment yesterday, that I did not think the trends were showinginflation. Was I wrong or what?
It just goes to show how many people are hanging on Greenspans every word.
I am still riding the G train.
Jimminee cricket, man that was brutal!
How much gloom and broom can a person ask for?
I made a comment yesterday, that I did not think the trends were showinginflation. Was I wrong or what?
It just goes to show how many people are hanging on Greenspans every word.
I am still riding the G train.
D
Dave M
Guest
imported post
That's my take on it. When interest rates get higher, money flows out of stocks and into fixed-income accounts. If as a foreigneryou have a dollar-account, it becomes attractive to set up such an account now while the dollar is weak and interest rates are climbing. Also to buy treauries you have use dollars, I think.
BTW it should be good for the G-fund, too. The higher rates I mean.
Dave
That's my take on it. When interest rates get higher, money flows out of stocks and into fixed-income accounts. If as a foreigneryou have a dollar-account, it becomes attractive to set up such an account now while the dollar is weak and interest rates are climbing. Also to buy treauries you have use dollars, I think.
BTW it should be good for the G-fund, too. The higher rates I mean.
Dave
blueskys4ever
Rising Member
- Reaction score
- 0
imported post
What I can't figure out is why bonds are dropping, also. This makes no sense to me at all? Typically, when stocks drop, bonds gain a bit.
Is this indicatinga weakness in the market that is not prima facia?
I was planning on talking a hard look at jumping back in on Thursday, butI believe I will rethink this move.
Tom, are you alive but too stunned to move?
What I can't figure out is why bonds are dropping, also. This makes no sense to me at all? Typically, when stocks drop, bonds gain a bit.
Is this indicatinga weakness in the market that is not prima facia?
I was planning on talking a hard look at jumping back in on Thursday, butI believe I will rethink this move.
Tom, are you alive but too stunned to move?
puertorico
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 1
imported post
good friday the marketwill be closed
good friday the marketwill be closed
- Reaction score
- 2,193
imported post
blueskys4ever wrote:
I love this action. I have been looking forwardto these sell offs so I can get back in. I am seriously considering jumping back in for Thursday hoping for another sell off Wednesday. BUT the last week of March is historically weak. I have been researching and was going to talk about this in Wednesday's comments.
blueskys4ever wrote:
Spaf answered the bond question. :^
I love this action. I have been looking forwardto these sell offs so I can get back in. I am seriously considering jumping back in for Thursday hoping for another sell off Wednesday. BUT the last week of March is historically weak. I have been researching and was going to talk about this in Wednesday's comments.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
- Reaction score
- 45
imported post
tsptalk wrote:
Seen that insurance commercial where a bear raids a van looking for donuts? You can't rewind reality. So, how do you get the bear out of the van?
Big sign by a curve in the highway. In big letters "Caution sign has sharp edges" in small letters "Danger bridge is out".
tsptalk wrote:
How do we get the Horsemen to leave the valley? Until they leave we have mayhem in the market!
Seen that insurance commercial where a bear raids a van looking for donuts? You can't rewind reality. So, how do you get the bear out of the van?
Big sign by a curve in the highway. In big letters "Caution sign has sharp edges" in small letters "Danger bridge is out".
The_Technician
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 15
imported post
Watch it about getting in the I fund:h.....the dollar value is changing and the main reason the I fund went up is because the dollar value was going down.....currently the dollar is gaining strength that means the I fund will have a down bias ........:^
I'll be looking at the S&P for action over the next week.... I wouldn't get in a rush to get into the C fund at the moment....
Gee wiz, the fellers in the market must really be steaming around the collar right now!!!
The Technician...
Watch it about getting in the I fund:h.....the dollar value is changing and the main reason the I fund went up is because the dollar value was going down.....currently the dollar is gaining strength that means the I fund will have a down bias ........:^
I'll be looking at the S&P for action over the next week.... I wouldn't get in a rush to get into the C fund at the moment....
Gee wiz, the fellers in the market must really be steaming around the collar right now!!!
The Technician...
The_Technician
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 15
imported post
I'd be careful playing the oil price bubble right now Spaf..:s.....the real version is the oil price is high......company profits will suffer and individual savings will too....good economies rely on a fair price for energy......why in the h@#$lLL the oil price is high right now is beyond me other than a few sectors of the markets want to make some quick cash.......(BP, Shell...are highly invested in Solar Cells...hmmmmm???)
I like to keep the economy simple and compare it to a family income/expense machine.......anytime you have what is going on today (and for the last decade or so) spells bad news.....basically, services and products are hitting the roof for a quick profit for those companies and the family units income hasn't kepted pace.......its out of norm and the norm will be converged later with a reduction of spending by consumers....which means the corps can pig out now but they will pay later :shock:.......unfortunately so will everyone else.......:s
Geez I hate to be a bearer of a bad outlook.....but can you deny it.....:#
I'd be careful playing the oil price bubble right now Spaf..:s.....the real version is the oil price is high......company profits will suffer and individual savings will too....good economies rely on a fair price for energy......why in the h@#$lLL the oil price is high right now is beyond me other than a few sectors of the markets want to make some quick cash.......(BP, Shell...are highly invested in Solar Cells...hmmmmm???)
I like to keep the economy simple and compare it to a family income/expense machine.......anytime you have what is going on today (and for the last decade or so) spells bad news.....basically, services and products are hitting the roof for a quick profit for those companies and the family units income hasn't kepted pace.......its out of norm and the norm will be converged later with a reduction of spending by consumers....which means the corps can pig out now but they will pay later :shock:.......unfortunately so will everyone else.......:s
Geez I hate to be a bearer of a bad outlook.....but can you deny it.....:#
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