Market Talk / October 22nd - 28th

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Oil is really helping with the pin action today. The Dow components are churning, and because the MCSUM's are so high you won't see much in the way of price decay. Dow volume MCSUM has a reading +1382, and Dow breadth MCSUM has a reading of +1038. And all the stupid shorts are trying to hang on with their fingernails - soon they will cascade into the valley.

Despite a market run-up that has pushed the DJIA to records this month, many short-sellers have hung onto their bets, which lose value during such upturns. In general, the higher the short interest, the more investors expect a downturn. Short positions rise in value as stocks fall, and vice versa. There is a long way to go yet on this train. With lots of power available. Snort.
 
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/#calendars

then click on "Meeting calendar, statements, and minutes"... usually this updates the wording by 2:15 sharp... it's still not up there.

Not that it really matters, since we know there's still a pause and not out of control growth. Those "experts" sure like beating the fear drum before the statement... I heard/read about 10 experts saying a raise was more likely than a lowering in the next 1/2 year... whatever.
 
if indices retreat a little as in recent post FOMC days, I'll reallocate 100% to C fund until the election. I'm leaning towards F fund and I fund gains tomorrow, with drops in C and S.

'04 election showed a nice S&P run into the election, and then in 1986, also a Repub's 2nd term & mid-term election year, showed a sizable run up a week prior to the election. I'm turning all Birchy, except for the Democrat bashing. Go stem cells!
 
Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
October 25, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles & Tea Leaves

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks advance, FOMC rates unchanged!

Con-Yak...................................Inventories drop, lube climbs.

Jester-Yak................................Could lube be a spoiler?

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1382.22, up +4.84
Stops......................................Alert: 1369. Trail: 1356
Trend (MACD-Hist)....................increasing at +0.478.
Overbought/sold (S-STO)...........[80] 98.18 [20] increasing.

Lube (NYM) Closed at.................61.40, up +2.05
Oil Markers...............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles.............................Yellow.
 
Spaf,

You've been on the lilly pad for a month - how much longer? I can use you as a contrarian indicator. What would be the most important sign that the markets have peaked? When there is a full capitulation by investors to include you and Tom and many other current lilly padders. But my serious top is at Dow 17,000. You certainly won't stay out that long - will you? The current angle of climb for the SPX seems to be 45 degrees - that's impressive.
 
Here is something that has me just a we nervous: Of the $124 billion invested so far this year into U.S. equity mutual funds, including exchange traded funds, fully $110 billion, or 89% has gone into funds investing in overseas companies. And what does it mean when hedge funds run away again?
 
Birchtree said:
Spaf,

You've been on the lilly pad for a month - how much longer? I can use you as a contrarian indicator. What would be the most important sign that the markets have peaked? When there is a full capitulation by investors to include you and Tom and many other current lilly padders. But my serious top is at Dow 17,000. You certainly won't stay out that long - will you? The current angle of climb for the SPX seems to be 45 degrees - that's impressive.
Click to expand...

Birch,

I had to stop posting my allocation when I went over to RevShark! The Rev was close to 10%. Heck, he's got a staff and does this as a regular job. You can use me as a capital presevation indicator....:cheesy: The market is overbought and very vulnerable. Look at your candlesticks; lately the $SPX has ben showing "hammers" as she climbs, when you start seeing "gravestones", watch out. I haven't capitulated, just a new strategy with RevShark. I don't know about Tom and the others. Fundamentals are looking good, not great, but good. Here's hoping that Nnuut can keep Krude in the can. I'm not out...just can't say where I'm in....;)

My retirement annual withdrawl is less than 4%, so I can stay in the barn and do what ever it is that bulls do in barns.....BTW what do they do....:confused:

FERS is great, I'm over 100% of by previous salary, and not having all the stupid expenses of parking, gasoline, eating out, etc.

Thanks again...cause...I named my boat "The Lilly Pad".......:D

Regards there Permi-bull!

Spaf
 
The Lilly Pad is a great name for a boat Spaf. A great place to be when you do'nt want to get your feet wet. No worries.
 
Home sales down.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061026/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

My thoughts:

1. This increases the likelihood Fed will pause longer/possibly even drop rates slightly. Remember that average 6 months after fed stops increasing rates that it pulls a decrease - we are on track. Ignore what the Fed tells us, pay attention to what they do.

2. The impact of the fed rates will drop the dollar. This helps the I-fund.

3. The article tells us that average home sale price has dropped significantly. Then goes on to tell us durable goods are up. Housing impacts durable goods, but there is a lag. I expect that durable good will slow as well. Just there will be a lag.

4. The impact here will be to slow the economy and thus impact C&S funds negatively. This effect will be lagged. I expect this drop will occur but may not occur till January. January is a long ways off and a lot of things can happen. Right now this means I probably will lean toward being out of the market on Jan. 2.

5. I think we are seeing the effect of the internet on the stock market. More investors are now thinking about the Santa Rally and thus it comes about as a result. The hedge fund guys are not going to buck the trend but rather profit while the getting is good and will wait to pull the rug out. The closer we get to November the less likely I think a big pull back will be. It also lessen the likelyhood that it would be sharp since dip buyers would step in initially. This means I'll be staying on the train till I see real red.

6. The I-fund may be the place to be for awhile. Dropping dollar and an OSM that is following a climbing US market. It may not be a bad idea to diversify into the S-fund as well.

7. North Korea or Iran can always mess up a party, so I'm still watching for signs of smoke (OK we got smoke -- how about fire).
 
New home price drop is largest in 35 years- down 9.5% from a year ago.

Locally, the paper today said existing housing stock prices have dropped a whopping 20% since a year ago, and new home consturction is down 85% over 2005 levels.
 
Think about the poor (his own fault) bugger that is overextended on his home equity line of credit - he'll have to put up more cash or move to an apartment. There is wonderful trouble brewing in Muddville. I'll sit nice and comfortable in my manure pile and start selling some to the new stockmarket investors heading this direction.
 
"Pop goes the weasel, and the weasel goes pop". Ever get the feeling the market (or smart money) waits till TSP gets locked out for the day to buy or sell? And another thing...can you imagine if Social Security does get revamped into a TSP type program, (as Bush was looking at). We would become a country of day traders...or trend traders...or sector rotators
 
FUTURESTRADER said:
"Pop goes the weasel, and the weasel goes pop". Ever get the feeling the market (or smart money) waits till TSP gets locked out for the day to buy or sell? And another thing...can you imagine if Social Security does get revamped into a TSP type program, (as Bush was looking at). We would become a country of day traders...or trend traders...or sector rotators
Click to expand...

or "lilly padders".
 
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