Market Talk / October 1st - 7th

[Birchtree]

I'm having lunch on the train today. And as I look around there ain't no body here - no appetite or no riders. But the service is pretty good - very attentive to my needs. Perhaps by dinner time we'll pick up a few more riders.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Showme,

The C fund gentleman's supper club is now taking applications for membership and potential employment. We need door bouncers to take tickets and keep the bond folks away - this will be an elite clientel. International folks will have to pay an exorbitant franchise fee to join. The small-cap boys won't file for membership regardless - they will be happy at Mickey D's. Am I off the wall today or what?

Dennis

Gentleman's supper club or restaurant from the old Monty Python movie.

Surely you're not the gluttonous one being baited into having.."just one wafer thin mint"?
Come to think of it, no one has seen you leave the table in 2 years. An endless feast of c-fund apetisers, entree's and deserts. Even the l'apperitif was 100 proof essence of c-fund.
I fear without the dreaded ice water and g-fund enema, a mere vomit bucket won't suffice.
When will the disgorgement begin? C-fund entree's of $17.00?
Could take more than Harvey Keitel and mop.

 

[Birchtree]

Traffic Dog,

If this market cracks like Humpty Dumpty I'm afraid I'll be eating plenty of humble pie. But until then I'm running in front of the train. Wasn't Monty Python looking for the same Holy Grail that Sponsor has been hunting? The longer the majority of bears can hold out the greater the potential for higher highs. There is so much liquidity available - I'm still looking for 12,600 by the end of the year. And if I can get good pin action the wife may just get her strand of pearls she has been waiting ten years for - she's patient,

Dennis - permabull#1

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Enjoy the ride my friend, you certainly paid for your ticket well in advance...cheers

 

[fedgolfer]

Traffic Dog,

If this market cracks like Humpty Dumpty I'm afraid I'll be eating plenty of humble pie. But until then I'm running in front of the train. Wasn't Monty Python looking for the same Holy Grail that Sponsor has been hunting? The longer the majority of bears can hold out the greater the potential for higher highs. There is so much liquidity available - I'm still looking for 12,600 by the end of the year. And if I can get good pin action the wife may just get her strand of pearls she has been waiting ten years for - she's patient,

Dennis - permabull#1

12,600 for the S&P... better yet the Cfund? Desperado, see what you're missing!

 

[Beavis]

Traffic Dog,

If this market cracks like Humpty Dumpty I'm afraid I'll be eating plenty of humble pie.

Dennis - permabull#1

We all get our share of humble pie. After avoiding the I fund most of the year, I've been in it heavy the last 2 weeks while the C's been rocketing up. Enjoy your steak while you can.

 

[Birchtree]

12,600 for the Dow, not the S&P. I'd be happy if the day ended with the SPX at 1345. Of course our members will have to pay more to get off the lilly pad and join the fun, but who doesn't mind paying more on the top. I'll play DCA all the way to SPX 1700 locking in my gains behind me. Tell you the truth I get the itch to pull out my pearl handles - but my discipline says I can wait and when it's time I'll be using the .50 caliber round. Perhaps by that time interval we'll be in a volatile period where the moves will be greater and the dollar volume more rewarding. There will be another recession out there someday just not soon. So I wait and continue to accumulate. I may be forced to send another beauty out on her own. I do better buying on the correction lows but there is nothing wrong with buying on the way up - after all eventually every purchase becomes cheaper as we move up. My opportunities to accumulate more C fund for example are going to be limited because I will be buying less shares with a fixed DCA - so I'll take as much as I can get under $15.00. The days of the $12.00 purchases are now long gone and the same will unfortunately apply to the $14.00 range. Ah it's all in the sacrifice.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

what's that groan?..sounds like shorts gettin squeezed?

 

[Birchtree]

You bet, they are popping like zits. But there are so many of them, this could last for months - all trapped on the upper levels of the indexes. I'm going to have to take my no fear of heights pill. I think the best thing I can do is shut up and keep my pockets open.

 

[Paul]

Hey Birch, when do think a recession will hit? We are coming up on 80
months since our last one and the average US expansion is about 57 months.
I'd say we are overdue. You think maybe mid 2007?

 

[nnuut]

He has spoken!
Bernanke: housing to take 1% off GDP growth
Fed is closely watching for "spillover" of slowdown to other areas of economy.
October 4 2006: 2:03 PM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy is experiencing a "substantial correction" in the housing market and that the Fed is closely watching how it plays out.
The decline in housing "was one of the major drags causing the economy to slow now," Bernanke said in response to a question after a speech he gave to the Economics Club of Washington Wednesday afternoon on the importance of preparing for the demographic changes in the U.S. economy.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/04/news/economy/bernanke/index.htm?cnn=yes

 

[Birchtree]

Paul,

Maybe not until 2009 or later. Remember inflation is basing again at lower highs on the down trend line from 1980. Think back about all the pain and dues that have been paid in the economy. Every sector has been through the wringer except housing. Guess what - it's housings turn and with rates stable the pain won't be that bad. We are currently up 100 points - watch how quickly the next 100 piles on. This is great - let'em bleed.

 

[James48843]

Looks like the steam is running out. Two days in a row that the steam runs out near the end of the day.

What do you think?

Top here?

Or just a springboard for a "break'en through to the other side?"

(I'm going to be sitting 85% outside of stocks at the close of business today...)

AAARRRRGGGGGGGGGG !!!!!!!!!!

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP​

Daily Edition
October 4, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................S&P at best in 5 1/2 years.

Con-Yak....................................Lube below 60.

Jester-Yak.................................Krude will look for any excuse!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1350.22, up +16.11.
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.200, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+8.425/7.519, rev to divergence.
............ (MACD) (Hist)..............increasing at +0.907.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........82.81, rising.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 71.13 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................59.41, up +0.73
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles..............................Yellow (RSI in highest overbought).

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% G.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1337. Trail: 1324

 

[coolhand]

Jeepers Creepers - everyone is so sacared and it's not even Halloween yet. Or perhaps I'm the greater fool here. That lilly pad sure is getting crowded. Am I wrong staying 100% or will I end up making another uncomfortable sacrifice. Yes you have to be in to win - and the deeper in you go the more potential for the score. September was good and now October will be excellent - from a contrary approach. As soon as Bernanke mentions the word unwind - it will all break to the upside. Snort.

I cannot help but be bullish for the LT here. ST moves down notwithstanding I see a whole lot more upside down the road. The real estate bull run is probably over in spite of lower interest rates and if commodities can't rally back from recent highs all that cash is gonna find its way into stox. But its the cash that was in real estate that's probably gonna drive this market. I would be very leery about shorting this market as a whole lotta bears are finding out.

 

[Birchtree]

The Wilshire 5000 confirmed the DJIA new all-time high today with its' own new all-time high at 13474.56 beating its' previous high by 17.28. The NYSE is only 108.29 points away from confirmation with its' own new all-time high. The VIX is at 11.86 - no volatility. And the Dow Transports are coming on strong, it won't be long. This could actually be better than 1995. The futures are real quiet tonight - no one wants to tip their hand for the opening.

 

[weatherweenie]

I wonder if Tom is going to throw in the towel, and jump into the market?

 

[Birchtree]

No of course not - not until SPX of 1375. By then he'll be chewing his nubs and ready to do something. Even 1375 will look cheap once we get out of October. This party will last all night, so if you arrive socially late no harm done there will be plenty of food left.

 

[Show-me]

If he does I'm bailing. LOL Just kidding.

I wonder if Tom is going to throw in the towel, and jump into the market?

 

[coolhand]

If he does I'm bailing. LOL Just kidding.

You're catchin' on!...LOLOLOLOL