Market Talk / October 1st - 7th

[Birchtree]

Spaf,

Have you ever seen Pulp Fiction? The big difference between your clean up abilities compared to Harvey is that you have been previously trained to use your four extremities as a coordinated movement. Prepared you well to multitask and enhance your helpfulness around the house. Regards, too.

 

[Spaf]

You know I play favorites! Every member is a favorite! Yea, including perma-bulls!................

 

[Birchtree]

Come on C fund - show'em how it's done. You must like oil at $59.30.

 

[James48843]

Wow.

"C" S&P 500 is positive again. Hard to believe.

Think it will hold until the close?

 

[fedgolfer]

Wow.

"C" S&P 500 is positive again. Hard to believe.

Think it will hold until the close?

impressive. the upper trend line for the rising wedge is now angled further upward giving more room to go up... we've seen it bounce off the 10 day MA in the recent past... could happen again... i'm moving some in.

 

[Birchtree]

Anybody feeling any head spin yet - just wait, we are early in the day. The bears are on the run trying to cover those shorts. As soon as Davy Crockett gets on the scene....

 

[ATCJeff]

My head is spinning. Damn lilly pad is taking on water.

Jeff

 

[Birchtree]

ATCJeff,

Your day will come and you will have everything - there used to be a melody tune that went with that. What I would like to see today is the bears to throw in the towel at about 1500 hours and all try to get out the door at the same time. I say lock the fire exits and watch another 100 points pile up in the last 30 minutes. This should be a good night for Larry Kudlow. I'm trying to draw my nemesis out of his wood pile, he hates Larry, Elaine, anybody that is bullish. He's probably catatonic in a dark room crying in the corner. Come back and bring me some doom you....

 

[James48843]

Looks like the steam is running out. Two days in a row that the steam runs out near the end of the day.

What do you think?

Top here?

Or just a springboard for a "break'en through to the other side?"

(I'm going to be sitting 85% outside of stocks at the close of business today...)

 

[Birchtree]

You'll want to remember 10/06 for future reference. Were you aware of the market volatility in 7/02 when she blasted 1000 points in two days per se. I went out and bought everything I could and never looked back - bought more in 10/02 and again in 3/03 what a sweet triple bottom. We may be getting ready to experience something memorable again. If something glorious does happen and you are still 80% out of stocks and get you a crying towel and usurp the gains you ignored - at least somebody will benefit.

 

[ATCJeff]

ATCJeff,

Your day will come and you will have everything - there used to be a melody tune that went with that. What I would like to see today is the bears to throw in the towel at about 1500 hours and all try to get out the door at the same time. I say lock the fire exits and watch another 100 points pile up in the last 30 minutes. This should be a good night for Larry Kudlow. I'm trying to draw my nemesis out of his wood pile, he hates Larry, Elaine, anybody that is bullish. He's probably catatonic in a dark room crying in the corner. Come back and bring me some doom you....

I agree 100%. But it is very hard to have a power account sitting idle. I've done very well this year. Though I would like to make my 15% goal. All I need is 5% more. It's very hard to watch these gains slip away and at the same time not be greedy.

I still feel we need a pull back/rest in the market. Today was one of those days that being on the sideline will make you do something that you would normally not do.

I'm going out tonight for a nice dinner with the family and enjoy what I have accomplished in my 20 years of investing in the TSP. Try to put today behind me and look forward to finding my reentry point.

Thanks for being positive. This board/group of people is what makes this site so powerful.

Jeff

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP​

Daily Edition
October 3, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Lube drops 4%, now under 59.

Con-Yak...................................Long road to make up for the summer energy highs.

Jester-Yak................................The gas pump ate my homework!!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1334.11, up +2.79.
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.106, declining.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+7.118/7.292, crossing.
............ (MACD) (Hist)..............declining at -0.174.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........70.19, falling.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 63.72 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................58.68, dn -2.85
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles..............................Red.

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% G.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1326. Trail: 1313.

 

[Birchtree]

ATCJeff,

Trust me there is no worse feeling than being left behind when a new leg starts to run. Look back at 1995 and 2003 - there were very few opportunities with any kind of set backs. There were many pauses along the way but always at higher prices. Think about doing the DCA thing on the way up - it's much easier than catching the down strokes. Take your time and that way you might sacrifice some profits but not get trapped on the top. I'm staying in and waiting for my next DCA and I'd like it under $15.00 but I have no control over destiney.

 

[Birchtree]

jlpost,

Isn't it time you took off the bandito mask and stepped into the sunlight. We or at least I do, want to hear from you. Sound out.

Dennis

 

[ATCJeff]

Birchtree,

I don't think it's a feeling of being left behind, at least not yet. It's more of a feeling of missed opportunity. This last week and a half would have been nice to been in for the run up. Though I do know I would have pulled the pull before cob today because Uncle Ben speaks tomorrow.

Jeff

 

[robo]

From Market Clues!!!

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Stocks: Dow Joins the Party at New, All-Time Highs

It took some years to do it, but the venerable Dow Industrials, after lagging the broad market, finally struggled to a new, all-time high Tuesday. Welcome to the party, which has been in progress for many years.

However, many of the early attendees were looking pretty tired on Tuesday. The Value Line, which has been trading at a succession of all-time highs since September 2000, is showing extreme fatigue. The Russell 2000, which has been the darling of mutual fund investors chasing outperformance in the small stocks, is looking quite bedraggled. Indeed, the Dow found itself alone at the top. And, it may find that it has arrived at the party just in time to turn out the lights on this six-year stock market celebration.

The position we recommeded last week was still doing well by the close, although we think a retracement is in progress. Given the trends in force now, this particular position is likely to be the gift that just keeps on giving. This retracement should allow us to add to the position, as well as allow latecomers to get on board the train.

 

[Birchtree]

Robo,

And what if the retracement never comes - that's the hook to keep people out of the bull. The more top noise I hear the better I like it. At the May highs the only index not participating was the Dow, now we have the reverse. It's never clean and easy, but that is what keeps things interesting. Think how boring life would be when all one can do every day is make money in the new bull market. Just walk on by, wait on the sidelines...

 

[Show-me]

O'boy........this will pain me some what. I agree with.............you Birchtree and that is part of the reason I went back to the I fund. I got weary of sitting a waiting for the "correction". There I said it! Be kind to me or better yet ignore me.

Robo,

And what if the retracement never comes - that's the hook to keep people out of the bull. The more top noise I hear the better I like it. At the May highs the only index not participating was the Dow, now we have the reverse. It's never clean and easy, but that is what keeps things interesting. Think how boring life would be when all one can do every day is make money in the new bull market. Just walk on by, wait on the sidelines...

 

[Beavis]

O'boy........this will pain me some what. I agree with.............you Birchtree and that is part of the reason I went back to the I fund. I got weary of sitting a waiting for the "correction". There I said it! Be kind to me or better yet ignore me.

Sounds like Greed vs. Fear, and Greed's coming through on the back stretch. That's why I stayed in the I Fund instead of bailing yesterday.

 

[Birchtree]

Showme,

The C fund gentleman's supper club is now taking applications for membership and potential employment. We need door bouncers to take tickets and keep the bond folks away - this will be an elite clientel. International folks will have to pay an exorbitant franchise fee to join. The small-cap boys won't file for membership regardless - they will be happy at Mickey D's. Am I off the wall today or what?

Dennis