Market Talk / Nov. 26 - Dec. 2

[ayla]

THE ^VIX (Volatility index) is back down 5%. I'm hoping this means a delay for now in the arrival of any pullback in the immediate timeframe (i.e. tomorrow).
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^vix

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
November 28, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Well where's the support line?

Con-Yak...................................What a choppy day!

Jester-Yak................................Caution sides may have steep drop-off.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1386.72 up +4.82
Stops......................................Alert: 1393 (broken). Trail: 1380
Trend (MACD-Hist)....................decreasing at -2.659.
Overbought/sold (S-STO)...........[80] 46.01 [20] cooling!

Lube (NYM) Closed at.................60.99, up +0.67
Oil Markers...............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles.............................Red.

Tin Box:
TSP........................................Safe; capital preservation.

 

[Spaf]

It's the language and personal attacks that folks report!.........

 

[robo]

Some Bear Cave Comments:


Spaf,

Posted in the wrong thread, sorry! Moved to the Bear cave.

 

[mlk_man]

It's the language and personal attacks that folks report!.........

Exactly, even though we can now say ass on TV, you can't say it here..........

mlky, you're an ass.............

Yepper, and unless you're 5 years old and live in a convent, you've probably heard ass before.

My ass.......

Nice one at that!!!

 

[Fivetears]

A$$ Hole O Mio! :nuts:

 

[Oldcoin]

A$$ Hole O Mio! :nuts:

LMAO

 

[James48843]

What I want to know is how Pointman knew to do that last move.

Pointman: Please share your thougths on why you did what you did day before yesterday, moving to I. You hit it, once again, right on the money.

Thanks

 

[pointman72]

James,

Wish I'd had the foresight to make that very move. Unfortunitely, I was in the S Fund and took the 2% loss. But no big deal I'll get it back this week or next.

Real question is which fund will out perform the others over the next 30 days and who has the conviction to buy & hold through all the turmoil?

 

[Birchtree]

If channel support does hold against the odds, then we ought to be looking for a re-test of the most recent highs within a couple of days. The DJUA may tag a new all-time high by the close. I need a melt up of consequence.

 

[ATCJeff]

Source CNBC 11/29/06

GDP Details...

Corporate Profits
Quarter 3 4.2%
Quarter 2 1.4%
Y/Y 30.9% (a 22 year high)

GDP Revision
Q2 Gross Personal Income
revised to 0.7% from 7.7% (WOW)
This represents a 700 billion dollar change!

I think it's time for the Gov't to fire their economist.

 

[pointman72]

Birchtree,

I think your right. Just not certain of the exact timeline.

My take is the USM will continue to go higher for the next 2 weeks, OSM will try to mirror the effort but believe the USD will be rising and counteract any real gains for the I fund. My money will be mainly in the S Fund, will probably put a portion in the C Fund but that is really not my style (prefer 100% dedicated to one fund).

Sometime 2 weeks from now, the USD will begin to level off and then the primary fund will be the I Fund through the beginning of the year.

Looking for a small correction in mid-January.

Then Feb through May to mirror 2005 activities with the S Fund catching up to the I Fund.

 

[FundSurfer]

My take is the USM will continue to go higher for the next 2 weeks, OSM will try to mirror the effort but believe the USD will be rising and counteract any real gains for the I fund.

Sometime 2 weeks from now, the USD will begin to level off and then the primary fund will be the I Fund through the beginning of the year.

Looking for a small correction in mid-January.

I agree with your line of thinking with one exception. The small correction in January could occur early-mid-or late. 2-3% is what I'd call small correction.

 

[fedgolfer]

... how about the very short term... still room for upward momentum

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:symbol=^vix;range=1m;indicator=sma(8)+bollinger+psar+wpr+stochasticslow+stochasticfast(15,5);charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined

 

[ayla]

... how about the very short term... still room for upward momentum

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:symbol=^vix;range=1m;indicator=sma(8)+bollinger+psar+wpr+stochasticslow+stochasticfast(15,5);charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined

Agreed.

Pardon my obsession with the VIX (this is how I learn when I lock onto something and dig and dig), I have attached a plot of the VIX with 20 day and 50 day and 200 day averages along with the Ifund. Shows obvious correlation with previous dips..

... but ALSO notice that the 20 day VIX average ALWAYS crosses above the 50 day VIX average before serious damage (i.e. downturn).

On this particular set of data, doesn't look like that crossover will happen very soon. Though I guess things can turn around quickly, looks like it won't be tomorrow or within the next week, IMO.

 

[Birchtree]

The market is under intraday pressure because of increasing oil prices - but this will pass. My portfolio actually prefers $60.00 oil.

 

[fedgolfer]

Agreed.

Pardon my obsession with the VIX (this is how I learn when I lock onto something and dig and dig), I have attached a plot of the VIX with 20 day and 50 day and 200 day averages along with the Ifund. Shows obvious correlation with previous dips..

... but ALSO notice that the 20 day VIX average ALWAYS crosses above the 50 day VIX average before serious damage (i.e. downturn).

On this particular set of data, doesn't look like that crossover will happen very soon. Though I guess things can turn around quickly, looks like it won't be tomorrow or within the next week, IMO.

... nice job on the chart and spotting the 20/50 crossover. The most obvious thing, is the great buys this chart gives for longer-term swing traders. Thanks again.

 

[Birchtree]

This pause to refresh is totally within the context of what we should be looking for IF the 20 week low is close to nesting. Corrections can occur either by price or time. We may be done - on to re-testing the old highs.

 

[ayla]

... nice job on the chart and spotting the 20/50 crossover. The most obvious thing, is the great buys this chart gives for longer-term swing traders. Thanks again.

Sorry - seems I've screwed up the dates again. Dealing with the holiday differences makes this a bit trickier than one would think. Stay tuned. Should be momentary update...

(very red faced) --ayla

 

[ayla]

Okay - here's a corrected plot that still makes the same point, the 20 day historically will crossover the 50 day VIX average before any serious damage.

I've changed format to a ".png" file so you can view it without Acrobat. Had to change the resolution to be able to upload with limits of TSPtalk so granularity isn't quite as good as earlier. Thous data not changed as far as trends. Guess I was the only one who could see the numbers were "off" for the VIX. Apparently only by a small bit.

Good news is you should be able to pretty much repeat this plot for yourself on Yahoo using ^VIX and 20 day, 50 day and 200 day averages and select the EFA which may not show daily quotes well but works okay for the long term here.

FYI - I've used the actual Ifund values that I downloaded to my spread sheet.

Hoping there are no more corrections --