Market Talk / Nov. 26 - Dec. 2

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And this poor boy is out buying in front of the train - and I may be forced to do the same tomorrow. No fear. This panic is what makes a market.
 
Seems most of the selling has been from foreign investors and TSP talk participants - cluck, cluck. But that's what makes a market.
 
I think everything, maybe all of December, depends on the housing numbers Wednesday and Thursday. If it looks like a bottom is setting up and the worst is over, Santa may yet come see us. If it looks like housing is in free fall with no bottom in sight, then we will get the correction we have been talking about.
 
This down move could actually be all finished in one day. I bought 31 stocks earlier this AM and I may go for some more before the close. And I'll let my dividends do the DCA on the way back up if it takes awhile. I find this trauma exciting. Be right and sit tight. Snort.
 
Yes we know. And when it falls hard tomorrow you'll buy more to make more. And the next day....and the next day.....and you'll humiliate us by telling us were scared. And maybe finally one day we will see that riding a 2-3% loss or maybe 5-7% loss is good for us. It's a good thing. We should be happy to take the losses. 2,3,5,10% loss is good in the market. But not in my account.
 
You know I actually have some energy stocks that are bucking the trend today - can you imagine. The possibility is that we may tack on 200 Dow points tomorrow - I like my Ducati cycle rider. Enduring a little pain is good for the investor strategy and psyche. I just don't cut and run in the face of emotional nonsense. Snort.
 
On the downside, I'll call this:

Light resistance at 1360

Harder resistance at 1308

Floor underneath at 1270.

All three are possible in the next week.
 
Yes the bears will be increasing their short positions and that is a classic mistake on their part - all we can do is either pay to play or stay on the sidelines. I'd rather play even at these levels. This is a healthy correction and is probably finished today.
 
I wouldn't pay much attention to anything Herb the Greenberg has to say - he's in the permi-bear camp. I've been watching insider buys for several years and it's always rewarding when some one in the know is buying one of my stocks. Today is a nickle and dime day - not much damage.
 
Birchtree said:
I wouldn't pay much attention to anything Herb the Greenberg has to say - he's in the permi-bear camp. I've been watching insider buys for several years and it's always rewarding when some one in the know is buying one of my stocks. Today is a nickle and dime day - not much damage.
Click to expand...

Anything perma is usually not worth the read. Same as voting a party line....not much substance.

And I ll say at least two more down.
 
Birchtree said:
I just don't cut and run in the face of emotional nonsense. Snort.
Click to expand...

Emotional nonsense like "OK I'll stay in the S fund 2 more days and lose maybe 20-30 cents a share or maybe more." Yeah, that really is whacko. I see your point. Snort your way down and snort your way up.
 
The current %k(fast) stochastic for the C fund has slid very very low very rapidly (given the values as of 2:30pm today).

S fund is kind of low and the I fund isn't too bad. From what I can tell, looks like historically a pullback begins first showing up (this way) in the C-Fund followed by the S and I funds.

If history repeats itself, we would have a bounce as demonstrated by what happened April 7th (last time when C-fund %k(fast) stochastic dropped so precipitously) But timing the bounce looks to be too difficult for my limited abilities. Looks like a real roller coaster ride and then bottom for a serious pullback - like on May 11th thru June 13th (and beyond until full recovery).

Again, I'm just trying to fit the current data to the data back in April/May for the last pullback. Of course, may not turn out to be the case. Given this is Christmas, the scenario is bound to play out differently than back in May but looks scarier and scarier.
 
Now my dear Sugar, I have yet to call you narrow minded or anything else. You have to understand that there is a difference when investing in an open account versus a tax deferred account. You have to take into account how taxes affect your stratagies. You are free to bunny hop without any consequences so count your humble blessings. I'm sitting with $10,000 in the G fund as insurance and I may or may not use it soon. So I took a hit today - so what, it's not the end of the world. I may actually get to do some more DCA in the $15.00 range - I was worried those days were numbered. There is nothing wrong with pain - it helps to keep me grounded. My goal is to accumulate 40,000 C shares before I start my Palladin routine - but if volatility is going to increase I may be forced to change my concepts - nothing is rigid when you have the options of flexibility. Enjoy that wholesome lilly pad. Snort.
 
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