Market Talk / May 28 - June 3

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
May 28, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak.............................Socks rebounded last three trading days. Correction made short term bottom. Reports indicated an economy with strength and inflation in check.
Other Yak...............................Lube climbs over 71. Growth may be slowing. Higher interest rates are undecided.
Jester Yak..............................In the chart below, find the SAR for May 26th!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1,280.16, up +21.59, last 3 trading days.
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........+0.004, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........-10.142, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........30.99, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70] 45.62 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................71.37, up +2.12, for the week.
Oil Markers..............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Green / Yellow [3 days up / lube > 70].

Tin Box:
Position...................................100% socks.
Stops [$SPX]............................Alert: 1271. Trail: 1258.

TSP (week ending)......G=11.37..F=10.61..C=14.00..S=17.22..I=19.54
....(1 week past)........G=11.36..F=10.60..C=13.85..S=17.11..I=19.57
....(2 week past)........G=11.35..F=10.53..C=14.11..S=17.59..I=20.54
....(3 week past)........G=11.34..F=10.57..C=14.48..S=18.24..I=20.75
....(4 week past)........G=11.33..F=10.59..C=14.31..S=17.91..I=20.17

 

[teknobucks]

funny post of tt....


So many gloomy scenarios on the board .... but MY ROSE COLORED FORECAST is
we dip here, then go HIGHER AND HIGHER, above the all time highs. And:
*
Inflation will tank
U.S. consumers will get out of debt
Americans will become slim and energetic
TV and computer use will fall out of favor
China's population will decline
The worlds need and desire for oil dries up
Texans will give up their SUV's
Gold will have no value
Politicians will learn how to pronounce
Indian workers will demand shorter hours
Nursing homes will beg for more baby boomers
People will pay outright for new houses
Demand for yuppie style city housing declines.
Market Makers will give us a free lunch
Ebay will declare bankruptcy
Goog will be sued and owners end up on skid row
Californians will give up the Crystal Cathedral
Arnold Swartzenhegger will lose his physique
Bill Clinton will declare oral sex, as "real" sex
*

*
This higher stuff is against my better judgement, intuition, star
formations, tea leaf readings, Studley, Ellen and Elliot waves, Fiboyetchii
numbers, Seven superior sentinels, support/resistence, bottoms and boobs, 23
year symmetry, tidal pull, presidential cycle, DeeXCox, helpful Hawaiin
Guru, wise MSS, savvy Admin, Almanac Investor, black box theory, Rydex, Put
Call ratio, trends, candlesticks, new lows, triple screen, impulse system,
options analysis, the 2% rule and my grandmothers hemmoroids.
*
But, mark my words .... WE GO HIGHER.

 

[Birchtree]

With a 5.3% revised quarter it was a hot quarter, but it was a bit of a fluke and overstated the underlying strength of the U.S. Combineds, the two quarters yielded average annualized growth of 3.5%, about the rate at which the economy has tended to expand in the long term.

The first-quarter spurt contributed to another strong quarter for business. After-tax corporate profits rose 8.8% in the first quarter to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.115 trillion. That was less than the 13.8% rise in the fourth quarter. But profits in the latest period were up 24.8% from a year earlier, the largest year on year increase since 2002. At 8.9%, after-tax corporate profits'share of the entire economy reached the highest level in at least 60 years. Yes, the market goes higher. Maybe no retest of the prior lows.

 

[The_Technician]

G'Morn all....

...Tom put me onto Exil Island....can't play Survivor while on the island looking for that immunity doll.....(I won't say if I have it, but you too can go and look at where others go when they been exiled....)

Well prior to the 1st of May I indicated that there was a very large chance that we would get some corrective move in the markets, since then there was some deaf ears and such but since the 10th we took a pretty good drop, 3.5-9% drop depending on what fund you look at....I think I mentioned before being exiled that there was speculation on a further drop after Friday.....I'm going to look at that again this morning and make another commment hopefully before 10am so that some of you may make some decisions, ........seeing that the market isn't going to change their direction that quickly I would suspect it to come....

Another day another dollar, just in time for someone to holler.....

 

[The_Technician]

Well that review didn't take too long....it looks like we could expect that the C, S, and I funds to drop a bit more.....

I could be in the mid 50's (EAFE) before this drop is over with....

C could be in the 1230's (S&P) and S could be less than 540 as well....

I read where one of the board members track the funds and I thought that maybe it would be a good idea to let you guys know what I have so that you may understand the complexity of my decisions or lack thereof....

I track each individual fund as well, do some normal direct derivative of the info and then I make some 2nd and 3rd derivatives of each fund....all in all it consumed about 1.6 Mb of an excel file. It involves 12 different plots of data of all the funds as well as most of the plots with two different data (secondary y-axis)....a second sheet keeps trade records as most have on the board with some associated plots....

In combination with this I track each index for the funds....each of these files are 10-12 Mb excel files....with approximately 20 different data plots, again with secondary Y-axis on most. There again is the direct derivative of the daily info and 2nd and 3rd derivatives of the data as well as daily info that gives me trading info for the day.....

As you can tell, its a bit formidable task to view and interpret the data everyday (there are many different data pieces that must be mentally connected to properly interpret)......and when I make a data change or new derivative of the current data, it takes a while to interpret what it means overall.....so last quarter was a period that was good to increase the learning curve for me (I was out of the market due to a vaction and such), but it was a good quarter in many ways I made some new data changes that I thought would help and hopefully it will start proving itself soon, as well as it has recently....

So what I have isn't easy.....but it is presenting some new data that I like tremendously.....there is hope for the new crystal ball....

Lets keep in mind though there is always the unknown daily news that affects us all......there is no way to predict what happens there....

The Technician (otherwise known as Carnac)

 

[Pilgrim]

I could be in the mid 50's (EAFE) before this drop is over with....

The Technician (otherwise known as Carnac)

Technician,

This would be approximately a 14% drop, retracing to late last year. In your opinion, would this be coming primarily from a sharp decline in world markets or from a major move up in the dollar?

Pilgrim

 

[bkrownd]

Welcome, gentlemen, to the Buyer's Market. Time to increase my payroll deduction rate.

 

[The_Technician]

Technician,

This would be approximately a 14% drop, retracing to late last year. In your opinion, would this be coming primarily from a sharp decline in world markets or from a major move up in the dollar?

Pilgrim

It isn't either one entirely, never really is........I fully expect both to affect the markets....lets just say it looks tired and so are consumers....its a time to regroup for all.....liking that F fund though.....its fairly safe at the moment and is going to give us some good returns for a while....

Love your tenancity Pilgrim, but watch your risks closely.....I will be in and out of the markets myself, but at prime moments only.....

 

[Fivetears]

Welcome back.

G'Morn all....

Tom put me onto Exil Island....can't play Survivor while on the island looking for that immunity doll.....(I won't say if I have it, but you too can go and look at where others go when they been exiled....)

Well prior to the 1st of May I indicated that there was a very large chance that we would get some corrective move in the markets, since then there was some deaf ears and such but since the 10th we took a pretty good drop, 3.5-9% drop depending on what fund you look at....I think I mentioned before being exiled that there was speculation on a further drop after Friday.....I'm going to look at that again this morning and make another commment hopefully before 10am so that some of you may make some decisions, ........seeing that the market isn't going to change their direction that quickly I would suspect it to come....

Another day another dollar, just in time for someone to holler.....

 

[Fivetears]

funny post of tt....
So many gloomy scenarios on the board .... but MY ROSE COLORED FORECAST is
we dip here, then go HIGHER AND HIGHER, above the all time highs...

The lunch break has just started on the east coast, and the last week profits appear to be the "Special."

 

[sugarandspice]

Tom put me onto Exil Island....

Did you get put there for something you posted on this board? Or was it behind the scenes stuff?

 

[sugarandspice]

Sugar, please only concern yourself with matters close to home. With your mind polluted by outside influences, things will only become more complicated and now you have contaminated a thread outside of your world. The peeps here will not tolerate this. Go back to your talk thread and stay there. I apologize for her unauthorized "field trip."

 

[Rod]

Looks like folks are in panic mode again.

Should be an interesting week.

 

[JOVARN]

I just turned on the news for the 1st time. Did we attack IRAN ?? whats up

 

[tsptalk]

whats up

One of the Fed members remarked that rates should not pause just yet. Also Walmart gave a weak sales outlook.

 

[The_Technician]

One of the Fed members remarked that rates should not pause just yet. Also Walmart gave a weak sales outlook.

U know Tom, I just wonder how this will affect the F fund....I'm curious how the "Future" interest rate change outlook will change todays F fund value.....its in limbo....

 

[James48843]

Yep. That's me...about right near the bottom arrow. Right there between Despondency and Depression. Although I do feel a twitch of panic in there today, too. So that means more downside to go.

Not looking good for the days ahead.

I got suckered into the false rally last week, and still am sitting too much in stocks at the moment.

And Wall Street doesn't have "Do Over's".

Thanks for the graphic Tom.

 

[The_Technician]

Yep. That's me...about right near the bottom arrow. Right there between Despondency and Depression. Although I do feel a twitch of panic in there today, too. So that means more downside to go.

Not looking good for the days ahead.

I got suckered into the false rally last week, and still am sitting too much in stocks at the moment.

And Wall Street doesn't have "Do Over's".

Thanks for the graphic Tom.

U know, if a few things change economic wise this thing could turn around.....but I don't see that happening immediately.....historically it doesn't either.....sure would be nice to buy gas for less than $2 a gallon, wood and other commodities cheaper.....but it won't happen overnight. Too much market speculation in the way.......

thought u would've been around Anxiety myself.....

 

[tsptalk]

U know Tom, I just wonder how this will affect the F fund....I'm curious how the "Future" interest rate change outlook will change todays F fund value.....its in limbo....

One of the reasons I moved to the G fund rather than F, was that the bounce in bonds was running out of steam and it was beginning to look like they would start another leg down, or at least test the recent low.

 

[Birchtree]

I guess I'm just going to have to buy my way out of this mess - doesn't seem to be any other option from my perspective. Caught in the clutches of another bear. Time to go looking for sweet raspberries again like last Spring - got some good pricing back then.