Market Talk / May 28 - June 3

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can't wait till we have a major rally to jump back to the G with.
last couple of weeks have worn me out!
 
Tekno,

Where did you come up with 1% F-fund?.......:D

We gotta get past the worries and woes! The Wal-mart report didn't help, but it wasen't unexpected with the cost of lube. If lube will slack off a bit, and the Cartel worries subside, things should pick up, I hope.

Rgds, and be careful!................:) ...................Spaf
 
http://www.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/05/31/asiastox.thursday.reut/index.html?section=cnn_latest
Data showed on Thursday that foreign investors sold a net 221.7 billion yen ($1.97 billion) of Japanese stocks last week, while they bought a net 1.07 trillion yen ($9.50 billion) of Japanese bonds.
Murai said risks still remain for the Japanese market.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aLZJGAQhYZA8
A private report based on payroll data estimated that U.S. companies added 122,000 jobs in May, the fewest this year. The report by ADP Employer Services debuted last month. The company says there is a 90 percent correlation between its data and the Labor Department's private employment figures.

How much worse can it get????
 
JOVARN said:
A private report based on payroll data estimated that U.S. companies added 122,000 jobs in May, the fewest this year. The report by ADP Employer Services debuted last month. The company says there is a 90 percent correlation between its data and the Labor Department's private employment figures.

How much worse can it get????
Click to expand...

Consensus estimate is for 165,000. The sweet spot is usually a narrow range (consensus plus or minus a small number); not so low as to foreshadow a slowdown in earnings; not so high as to spook the Fed. The market may see 122,000 negatively if it is focused on earnings and the economy; positively if it is obsessed with the Fed. I have given up trying to predict what seems to be "mob" psychology.

If 122,000 is right, what do you think it will mean??
 
FYI - The volatility index is thru the roof.
http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/perf.html?$VIX
 
Ayla,

Good news on the Vix - that will make life more interesting for guys like me.

Dennis
 
Info only....tomorrow another employment report comes out at 8:30am est.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

The NonFarm Payrolls, MM change consensus is 180,000.


The report out on 1/6/06 c-215,000, act.-108,000 ( the market finished up, the * charts were in an uptrend prior to release).

On 2/3/06 c-275,000, act-193,000 ( market finished down, the charts were in a downtrend prior to release).

On 3/10/06 c-220,000, act-243,000 ( market finished up, charts show market was working off a bottom).

On 4/7/06 c-185,000, act 211,000 ( market fin. down, charts showing top).

On 5/5/06 c-200,000, act-138,000 ( market fin. up, charts show an uptrend prior to release).

* by charts I mean S&P and DWCP ( small caps)

Notice a pattern? I hope tomorrow goes against that pattern.:D
 
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Who pumped the coffee into the markets in the last hour? :)

Whoda thunk we'd have a shot at an up week after Tuesday's action?

(Did I just jinx us?) :p
 
My good man - I seldom waiver in my bullish direction.

The January '06 advance carried both the DJIA and DTA averages above the previous Secondary high points of October '05 turning the Secondary Trend bullish. From a Dow Theory perspective nothing has occured to turn the Secondary Trend negative. Simply waiting on a confirmation of the Primary Trend buy signal now. Then we start talking secular bull market mega trend. It's time to buy stocks and the more the better.
 
The commercial traders are net short the big SP 500 to a greater degree than they are net short in the other contracts. They are actually more short now than they were in March '03. They may have started covering this afternoon. Maybe we get an easy run to Dow 11,400 next. Who will hold and who will fold. I'm buying tomorrow rain or shine.
 
Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
June 1, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Socks spin an sparkle. Tech has last laugh!
Other Yak................................Lube climbs then falls below 71.
Jester Yak...............................Welcome back Mr. Sto.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1285.71, up +15.62
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.069, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............-8.684, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........38.93, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 50.33 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................70.34, dn -0.95
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Green/Yellow [2d^ Lube>70]

Tin Box:
Position.....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX]..............................Alert: 1272. Trail: 1259.
 
Birchtree said:
The commercial traders are net short the big SP 500 to a greater degree than they are net short in the other contracts. They are actually more short now than they were in March '03. They may have started covering this afternoon.
Click to expand...

Just curious, Birchy, where'd you get the info? If your buy'in tommorrow, do it early, maybe you'll drag more shorts whith ya!

I have to admit, I'm thinking one more retracement before we head upward.
 
Wow.

That's about all I can say today.

For the "I" fund, dollar is tanking once again, and nearly all foreign markets posted strong or very strong gains overnight. Looks like the "I" fund will be up over 1% today.

"S" fund leads the recovery off the recent dips, and it looks like it is going to have a very nice day as well, as is the "C" fund, as both small and large caps are posting good size gains at the open today.

Thank goodness I am fully invested today- because it's going to be a nice, nice Friday.
 
AUTHORITY GRANTED. William McLucas, the Securities & Exchange Commission's former enforcement chief, suggested that the ability to conceal financial information in the name of national security could lead some companies "to play fast and loose with their numbers." McLucas, a partner at the law firm Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale & Dorr in Washington, added: "It could be that you have a bunch of books and records out there that no one knows about."

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/may2006/nf20060523_2210.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily


----------

This news, when it finally sinks in, will not serve to draw in the 'smart' money to the common equities. This is the equivalent to the 'hiding' of M3 which gave gold a big shot in the arm.

It is one thing for the President to be able to waive certain accounting practices in the name of national security, but to pass or delegate that power down to someone lower in the food chain only allows the President, after the ensuing financial crisis, a scapegoat. Smart money will run the other way.

 
Bears are on the hunt. International news right before the market opens, reports that person in charge of Iran's nuclear program, still plans on nuclear enrichment.:mad: If the markets can just finish in the green, without a big sell off the last hour, I count that a win for the Bulls.
Hey Wimpy, should be a good time for some of that M3 money, so Iran can't have the pleasure of jabbing the U.S. markets.

http://today.reuters.com/business/n...ction if it refuses. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
 
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