Market Talk / Mar. 1st - 7th

[Spaf]

Market Talk
Monday
March 02, 2009​

General Commentary:

This is one of the times one could say it couldn't get worse! The only bright spot on the charts was the oversold condition.

It seems the market loves misery. The difference between a battery and the market is that a battery has a positive side. The trend is down and it's best just to wait this one out. Will it be another rout or short rally? Will stocks continue to stumble into new lows, admist uncertainty and just a plain bad mood, or what?

A look at the chart(s)
The S&P500 [$SPX] Daily
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Pricing remains way under the 50dma.

The Bollinger Bands are showing a good bit of potential volatility.

The P-SAR is very bearish.

Volume has been fairly high.

The S-STO is in a oversold range at 12.70.

The MACD is a negative bearish.

Well, that's it to start the week!​

Be careful out there!​

 

[amoeba]

ummm yeeaaahhh:

So who's going to be in the market for this friday's job report? (not me)

BTW, and I don't think I'm alone on this one, but I'm not a big believer in the personal income number today meaning anything; since it is skewed upwards by government intervention - which will NOT last forever. The question is not when we will hit the 600's, but how long we will stay there, before going lower - that's right - under 600 in the S&P.

Hibernation time.

 

[tsptalk]

So who's going to be in the market for this friday's job report? (not me)

I would think the worst jobs report possible is priced in and we could rally off of the report. It would be a bear market rally, but we could see a big rally soon. 741 "should" act as resistance now but hey, that's almost 6% from here (700). I'm not sure if I'll be brave enough to play it though -

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

ummm yeeaaahhh:

So who's going to be in the market for this friday's job report? (not me)

I'm pretty sure I will be.

Tom's scenario could happen.
It's a perfect set up to launch off of a horrible jobs number.
The low might even come as early as tommorrow, chop around for the next two days, dip down briefly after the release of the number........ then up we go.

I put some in today in holding to my dicipline of three or more entry points....if I can get 'em.

 

[amoeba]

Actually:

The last 2 out of 3 bad jobs report DID result in a rally - that is:


"buying the bad news"


Anyone who is betting on this better realize that

a) you gotta pick a perfect entry point - ahead of the news, such as on wednesday or thursday;

b) we're not the only people who have seen the "buy bad news" play out;

c) it isn't a real rally/end of bear - it's just a trade;

d) history has a habit of not repeating itself when I put money in the market; so if it does rally - I think it could sell off big at the close this friday


We shall see, soon enough............

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Actually:


Anyone who is betting on this better realize that

a) you gotta pick a perfect entry point - ahead of the news, such as on wednesday or thursday;


We shall see, soon enough............

Nothing could be further from the truth in my trading strategy.

It can set you free. GL

 

[amoeba]

I think I changed my mind at this point; we have been in this water torture decline; I think we are in for a big time sell-off - and I do mean big: double-digit decline in one session. I see no reason for a recovery, at least not a significant one; been there, bought into one, when was it? Oh yeah, last week.

There is just no earnings visibility; and the gov is spending into oblivion; at some point that will stop; and only then will the market turn around on its own merit.

That is not now.

 

[Boghie]

Ya all know,

Me thinks I'm going to wait around a bit. I always make my moves early. Today felt like a jumping to equities point. Couldn't pull the trigger only because our lousy $11 Billion network (NMCI) crapped out on the allocation page. I hope, for the others who got their trade in, that things work out well. Anyway, for once I am thinking the NMCI network probably saved me...

I really don't see why the unemployment number will be better than expected. I mean, the gubmint missed 2008 (Q4) GDP by about a mile. Of course, to the positive - yuk, yuk. Anything good happening out there. Nope. My guess is that the unemployment number will be worse than expected. Kinda hard to bull up on more bad news.

Also, capitulation generally leads to a boom. Generally, you want to be in there on the entry day. But this time – nope. With a certainty you can take to the bank, President Obama Maximus (or some ignorant lout of a CongressCritter or Administration Flak) will open his/her yak and talk about nationalizing boat builders or something… This group is their own worst enemy.

 

[dpmp]

yawn.....


zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Futures have spiked on the in line jobs report. Wonder how long before people realize that last month was adjusted 10% higher? I think we go down before the close.

 

[Elgallo]

Re: Market Talk / Mar. 1st - 7th and still Slip Sliden away!

Slip slidin' away
Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip slidin' away

I know a man
He came from my home town
He wore his passion for his woman
Like a thorny crown
He said Dolores
I live in fear
My love for you's so overpowering
I'm afraid that I will disappear

Slip slidin' away
Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip slidin' away

I know a woman
Became a wife
These are the very words she uses
To describe her life
She said a good day
Ain't got no rain
She said a bad day's when I lie in bed
And think of things that might have been

Slip slidin' away
Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip slidin' away

And I know a fa-ther
Who had a son
He longed to tell him all the reasons
For the things he'd done
He came a long way
Just to explain
He kissed his boy as he lay sleeping
Then he turned around and headed home again

Slip slidin' away
Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip slidin' away

God only knows
God makes his plan
The information's unavailable
To the mortal man
We're working our jobs
Collect our pay
Believe we're gliding down the highway
When in fact we're slip slidin' away

Slip slidin' away
Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip slidin' away

Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip slidin' away
Mmm...

 

[Elgallo]

Re: Market Talk / Mar. 1st - 7th Still Slip Slidin Away!

Slip slidin' away
Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip slidin' away

I know a man
He came from my home town
He wore his passion for his woman
Like a thorny crown
He said Dolores
I live in fear
My love for you's so overpowering
I'm afraid that I will disappear

Slip slidin' away
Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip slidin' away

I know a woman
Became a wife
These are the very words she uses
To describe her life
She said a good day
Ain't got no rain
She said a bad day's when I lie in bed
And think of things that might have been

Slip slidin' away
Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip slidin' away

And I know a fa-ther
Who had a son
He longed to tell him all the reasons
For the things he'd done
He came a long way
Just to explain
He kissed his boy as he lay sleeping
Then he turned around and headed home again

Slip slidin' away
Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip slidin' away

God only knows
God makes his plan
The information's unavailable
To the mortal man
We're working our jobs
Collect our pay
Believe we're gliding down the highway
When in fact we're slip slidin' away

Slip slidin' away
Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip slidin' away

Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip slidin' away
Mmm...