Market Talk / June 4 - 10

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Actually Tech, I think the operative challenge in the game of TSP is to not get beat. :D Right? That way, you don't have to admit the beating. There are alot of "Barbie Girls living in a Barbie World" out there. Things are just... not... OK... today. :(
The_Technician said:
Dang the market is 5:1 decliners to gainers.....think we lost that toe hold for good and the wind is picking up......it major gulp time.....:sick:

EFA down now over 3%


"A true measure of a man is admitting when he's been beat."

"Cutting off something or someone that have and will help oneself is a self measure that only they can understand, only thing is, they know not what they do, for they themselves have defeated their own self."


No BS!!!:D
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Birchtree said:
The Postman always rings twice - this is simply opportunity time if you believe it's a correction rather than the beginning of another cyclical bear market. Me, I think we got the makings of a great summer like 1995 all over again. Take her down as low as she can go but watch out for the rubber band snap back. Reminds me of April'05 - that was a 900 point correction -and did the world end, no, but it did change. And the same will occur this time - change is inevitable.
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On Contrare...Birchy.....5:1 decliners vs advancers on over 1 Billion shares traded so far today doesn't sound like they're getting in.......

"Bar the doors, shutter the windows we have a stampede on our hands!!!"

No BS!!!:notrust:
 
First this isn't meant to be vindictive....just a western scenario that a few may appreciate....

The heat of the day is picking up.....you've been hanging on this cliff edge for a while, the toe hold that helped ya earlier has been lost and you can't get it back....and now the wind has started picking up.....hands are getting real sweaty, and its getting dry in your throat....it BIGGG GULP time....and a thought runs in your mind.....gee, I was told that the first couple of weeks in June wasn't looking good by this canyon....why didn't I listen....????

Well better luck next time......I think, and then I check my grip looking, no listening for any help to come along....."Trigger where are you feller" I yell.....all I get is a whinny and no rope either.....

GULP!!!!

No BS!!!
 
A very pointed observation V-man. In TSP... never mess with the 4-year Cycle Low; The bear will eat you alive.
vectorman said:
Capital preservation is key depending on what kind of investor you are. What a difference just four days make. Tops and bottoms are hard to pick. I have noticed in the past other members talking about picking stop loss point, but some of them are 100% still in stocks. Everyone hates a loss, but emotions can make it worse. This situation will certainly separate the men from the boys; and those you say one thing but end up doing the other. Is this a correction, start of a bear market or something worse. What to do?
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Spaf hasn't jumped yet - he must be out on the boat and is unaware of the dangerous condition of the world - or perhaps his strategy coincides with a different future. Looking past the next rate increase if we get one - doesn't really matter - earnings are what counts. Orca could bust through the surface at any moment. I finally got my toes moving again - I like this volatility.
 
Tom said: ..."May see some panic selling kick in here."
I am just tired- not panicked - I missed the panic boat back in May...dollar-wise it cost me big. Since I was going to be away from the computer from early morning until 1300;CDT today, decided to hang it up (somewhat) and forget it. I may just stay there !! Apparently I'm never going to reach the six figure numbers, anyway.!!
man2tepsforward5backcarole.gif
t..this makes me dizzy...!!!
 
fog from tekno...LOL

couple posts off other boards u guys might enjoy:
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Its interesting to watch how folks interpret/slant sentiment and the "feeling" of the FF board to reflect that they/themselves are doing the opposite or at least not following the crowd. If someone is invested bearish at the moment, everyone else is bottom picking and showing no fear. If someone is invested bullish, all they can see is everyone calling for a crash.

It is also interesting to watch the number of posts an individual makes when their stated position is proving to be on the right side of the market as opposed to when their stated position is on the wrong side of the market. Folks "pumps" their right calls and "fog" their wrong calls. Just an observation of normal human nature.

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and one from a guy who prolly lost a bucnh recently...LOL


This guy works in da business--great post!.......


on a good bottomfeeder market day I jotted some notes to keep my focus clear. First of let is be known that I'm a buyer her and now of ESV, RDC,HELX, NTO, AUY, NXG, CGR, THE and watching for CNQ below 48 KWK below 30 ECA below 45 and TXCO below 9.50 .
First think about CHINA:
Every day there is more highway being built to access more potential workers and automobile drivers. - More energy needs there for sure.
The Olympic infrastructure building will continue and intensify in an effort to showcase the next world power. More energy, steel, copper and cement for sure
The magnitude of growth will continue as the sheer numbers of people who want access to middle class is just being opened up there.
Next think about Saudi Arabia:
According to my O&G Journal statistics they have produced 9.5 mil/day as the average for over a year now with one month being 9.6 and a couple lower. With pricing rising and demand rising IF they could produce more prudently they would have as any producer worth his salt is doing elsewhere now. IF they had all this excess capacity would they be hiring all the rigs they can and paying more than competing market dayrates - NO WAY we know the reasons if we just Think about it.
As for No Demand for CL the numbere don't support this and my inside contacts in CHINA say its total BS as well. - Nothing New from the Rag-Heads as always.
Finally think about America:
We are experiencing record high CL, NG and gasoline pricing in the last few years and there has been NO APPRECIABLE LACK OF DEMAND especially in the gasoline arena when a reasonble person would have expected a different senario when gasoline went from 1.50 to $3 plus in a very short period of time.
From Robertbre's numbers there is no lack of demand for electric in the same period of time even though pricing has gone up as well.
There is no lack of easy money especially in the credit card world so there is no lack of spending until this situation goes away - same for the US Gov't to boot.
Bottom line is there is no lack of continued excess in most areas of the American lifestyle and there will not be as long as there is still cash in the bank or credit left on the accounts IMHO.
Basically there is NO LACK of ANYTHING here.
The one exception that I'm experiencing is in the real world of the oil patch in the US and that is lack of service availability and experienced labor force. The other thing lacking in the US IMHO is the integrity of the finanacial world when it comes to representing the good of the masses as all I see is GREED at most levels . Hopefully wrong on this idea.
Anyhow if one would just stop and think about what we do know vs what I believe is a media induced politically motivated senario, promoting the idea of All is Well around us, reasonable actions can be made with regard to our financial futures and more importantly the changes that will be coming and will be made by all Americans alike.
Stay Calm and Think!!!
Back to the dungeon again where no one is trying to fill my mind with ideas from a biased agenda.
 
I'll take a fundanental stand, not a technical stand. Doodles look terrible but the fundamentals are good. So if the market wants to play the worries and woes, I'll take advantage of it.

Remember the TSP funds are index's. They are not sector funds. I'll buy the lows and sell the highs, and the more they cry the more I buy.

Birchtree said:
Spaf hasn't jumped yet - he must be out on the boat and is unaware of the dangerous condition of the world - or perhaps his strategy coincides with a different future. Looking past the next rate increase if we get one - doesn't really matter - earnings are what counts. Orca could bust through the surface at any moment. I finally got my toes moving again - I like this volatility.
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Over the last two weeks I heard the TV interviewees (is that a word?) saying this is a great buying opportunity. That kept me suspicious. Earlier today, when things were falling apart, they were saying we have more downside to go. Hmmm. Now the Dow is back into green territory (currently up about 10). I wonder what they'll say now? :)

With 45 minutes to go, the rally may have started too early and may run out of some steam before the close. Just a guess. I'll predict a small loss for the Dow, maybe -20 to -30. But that wouldn't be bad considering.
 
I think I'm going to stay up all night and sleep all day tomorrow - this is exciting stuff. If this wasn't a bottom - help us when it arrives. My head is going to be under the pillow.
 
Birchtree said:
I think I'm going to stay up all night and sleep all day tomorrow - this is exciting stuff. If this wasn't a bottom - help us when it arrives. My head is going to be under the pillow.
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Interesting market action I'd say, you go away for while only to see other things coming from the other direction......this will be a very coy move of the market at this time if it turns north.....today....

The wind must of stopped....for the moment...

No BS!!!
 
tsptalk said:
With 45 minutes to go, the rally may have started too early and may run out of some steam before the close. Just a guess. I'll predict a small loss for the Dow, maybe -20 to -30. But that wouldn't be bad considering.
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A quick drop right after I wrote that has me questioning my thinking now. It should be an interesting last half hour. Remember, this is supposed to be the smart money.
 
tsptalk said:
A quick drop right after I wrote that has me questioning my thinking now. It should be an interesting last half hour. Remember, this is supposed to be the smart money.
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The smart money is watching this roller coaster ride. WOW! Could be a 200 point swing on the DOW from the low to the close if we get a rally the last 15 min...
 
Birchtree,

I keep reading how bad it is, but this month companies are buying back stocks at record amounts, While Investors were selling!!! HMMMM
How much did you sell my friend? I'll bet your buying!!!!
 
Maybe its time for me to retire and move to N.Y.and take a closer look at who is running this show on the Floor.Maybe theres nobody there but big main frames spitting out misiformation.After all,we did not land on the moon.Anyway,you get my jest.I cant believe what is happening today in the Big Apple.
 
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