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Market Talk / June 18 - 24
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
For those that might be interested in reading Henry's latest Market Thoughts.
On occasion he post on Safehaven. He is now 100% long the Dow.
Good Trading/Investing
http://www.safehaven.com/article-5409.htm
On occasion he post on Safehaven. He is now 100% long the Dow.
Good Trading/Investing
http://www.safehaven.com/article-5409.htm
Birchtree
Well-known member
Has anyone ever seen what happens to bear methane when you lite one up.
Keep an eye lookout because they provide excellent rocket fuel - short covering. There seems to be an excess of bears around still, and that's a lot of methane. We need one good 400 point Dow day to shake the world into sensible thoughts. Everyone is so sure the Fed continues to punish us poor humble servants - the surprise is waiting and it's a pause.
Keep an eye lookout because they provide excellent rocket fuel - short covering. There seems to be an excess of bears around still, and that's a lot of methane. We need one good 400 point Dow day to shake the world into sensible thoughts. Everyone is so sure the Fed continues to punish us poor humble servants - the surprise is waiting and it's a pause.
robo
Well-known member
Tuesday, June 20, 2006
Hedge Funds, A New End of Quarter Hazard
In the aftermath of the Japanese central bankers torpedoing the stock and commodity bull run by removing the punch bowl before the party got into full swing, it is said that a number of hedge funds are seeing heavy redemption requests coming in from investors. Usually, hedge funds, unlike traditional mutual funds, don't honor redemption requests at the end of the day. Instead, they require the investor to wait until the end of the calendar quarter to receive their money back. Since we are coming to the end of a calendar quarter this month, and we have had a horrendous quarter for commodity investors, it stands to reason that a number of hedge fund investors are asking for their money back.
In any case, that's the rationalization a lot of stock investors are using to explain why the market is having a hard time making any kind of rally in stocks "stick" for very long. In fact, that explanation makes sense when you consider the pell-mell selling of good stocks, as well as bad, during the past two months. That's what we call "throwing the baby out with the bath water." In other words, hedge funds are selling their winners as well as their losers to raise cash. If that's the case, this redemption pressure should ease around the end of June, with a lot of good stocks very depressed due to artificial and very temporary selling pressure.
That will be just in time for the seaonal "Fourth of July" Rally. Of course, outside the US, the Fourth is not a holiday, but foreign stock markets tend to tag along with the US market taking the lead. This year it will be interesting to see just how much of a rally the market will have with the downward pressure of the 4-year cycle still to bottom. Perhaps the Japanese debacle has bled off much of the normal pressure to take profits after a strong bull market. If the rally is like some prior 4-year cycle years, it could be quite strong, perhaps recording new highs in the market. And, that would bode very well for 2007, as well as the second half of this year. There is a lot of sideline cash which could come back into the stock and bond markets to push prices higher. Remember, the market is perverse: higher prices create heightened demand for goods (stocks).
But, we still have eight more trading days of June to build a base for the rally that's coming.
http://marketclues.blogspot.com/
Hedge Funds, A New End of Quarter Hazard
In the aftermath of the Japanese central bankers torpedoing the stock and commodity bull run by removing the punch bowl before the party got into full swing, it is said that a number of hedge funds are seeing heavy redemption requests coming in from investors. Usually, hedge funds, unlike traditional mutual funds, don't honor redemption requests at the end of the day. Instead, they require the investor to wait until the end of the calendar quarter to receive their money back. Since we are coming to the end of a calendar quarter this month, and we have had a horrendous quarter for commodity investors, it stands to reason that a number of hedge fund investors are asking for their money back.
In any case, that's the rationalization a lot of stock investors are using to explain why the market is having a hard time making any kind of rally in stocks "stick" for very long. In fact, that explanation makes sense when you consider the pell-mell selling of good stocks, as well as bad, during the past two months. That's what we call "throwing the baby out with the bath water." In other words, hedge funds are selling their winners as well as their losers to raise cash. If that's the case, this redemption pressure should ease around the end of June, with a lot of good stocks very depressed due to artificial and very temporary selling pressure.
That will be just in time for the seaonal "Fourth of July" Rally. Of course, outside the US, the Fourth is not a holiday, but foreign stock markets tend to tag along with the US market taking the lead. This year it will be interesting to see just how much of a rally the market will have with the downward pressure of the 4-year cycle still to bottom. Perhaps the Japanese debacle has bled off much of the normal pressure to take profits after a strong bull market. If the rally is like some prior 4-year cycle years, it could be quite strong, perhaps recording new highs in the market. And, that would bode very well for 2007, as well as the second half of this year. There is a lot of sideline cash which could come back into the stock and bond markets to push prices higher. Remember, the market is perverse: higher prices create heightened demand for goods (stocks).
But, we still have eight more trading days of June to build a base for the rally that's coming.
http://marketclues.blogspot.com/
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Birchtree said:
Birch,
The same principle has been used on dairy farms for years. The problem is with the connection device and the disposition of the bear.
Have any suggestions?
The market talk seems to be sidetracked with the Cartel. Yet, the economy is going strong.
Gotta go with tsptalk, the methane has to ignite soon.
Take care my friend!
Regards
Spaf
A growing number of investors and economists say they would not be surprised to see the central bank's fed funds rate target - currently at 5 percent - peak around 6 percent. Not even the harsh stock market sell-off in recent weeks has done much to dent the views of these investors and economists, nor has it produced much change in their appetite for risk.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/20/news/economy/managers_hikes.reut/index.htm
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/20/news/economy/managers_hikes.reut/index.htm
Wealthier Americans say they are keeping more assets in cash than advisers often recommend, a new survey shows, suggesting growing comfort with rising cash yields amid unease about prospects for stocks and bonds.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/20/pf/survey.reut/index.htm
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/20/pf/survey.reut/index.htm
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060620/bs_afp/forexus_060620220901mlk_man said:Building permits down, housing starts up?
Housing starts increased 5.0 percent to an annualized pace of 1.957 million units, which was ahead of the average Wall Street forecast of 1.950 million.
But analysts said the rise was effectively a statistical quirk, resulting from a rebound from sharp declines, and predicted the key economic sector will continue to cool.
"Despite May's good numbers, starts will continue to fall in the coming months," said Patrick Newport at Global Insight.
"Inventories of new unsold homes are at a record high, prices are softening -- forcing builders to cut prices -- builder confidence is plummeting, and permits are down. We are expecting starts to drop about eight percent in both 2006 and 2007."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=avGcj_tSsBmc
The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits probably rose to 305,000 last week, after falling to 295,000 in the week ended June 10, according to the median forecast of 35 economists in a survey before a report tomorrow.
The Conference Board's leading index, which forecasts the economic outlook for the next three to six months, fell 0.5 percent in May after dropping 0.1 percent in April, the median of 53 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed. The New York- based group releases the data at 10:00 a.m. tomorrow.
`Dollar Weakness'
``The economy appears to be slowing, and the trend is for dollar weakness,'' said Nobuo Ibaraki, deputy general currency manager in Tokyo at Nomura Trust and Banking Co. Ltd., a unit of Japan's largest brokerage. The dollar may fall to $1.2650 against the euro and to 114.20 versus the yen today, Ibaraki said.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Spaf,
Just how much money do you plan to make in retirement over the next few years, especially if a bullish mega trend cycle is upon us. It hardly seems fair. Even DaveM is starting to feel guilty about making so much money. And me, I'm going to cry all the way up.
Dennis - permabull#1
Just how much money do you plan to make in retirement over the next few years, especially if a bullish mega trend cycle is upon us. It hardly seems fair. Even DaveM is starting to feel guilty about making so much money. And me, I'm going to cry all the way up.
Dennis - permabull#1
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Daily Yak
Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box
Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................Socks pulled up on earnings.
Con-Yak..................................Lube splashes over 70.
Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1252.20, up +12.08
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.088, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............-11.266, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........34.83, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 46.12 [30]
Lube (NYM) Closed at..................70.33, up +0.99
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.
Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Yellow / Yellow [doodles ^, Lube > 70]
Tin Box:
Position.....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX]..............................Alert: 1243. Trail: 1230.
The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
June 21, 2006 Closing
Daily Edition
June 21, 2006 Closing
Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box
Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................Socks pulled up on earnings.
Con-Yak..................................Lube splashes over 70.
Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1252.20, up +12.08
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.088, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............-11.266, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........34.83, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 46.12 [30]
Lube (NYM) Closed at..................70.33, up +0.99
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.
Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Yellow / Yellow [doodles ^, Lube > 70]
Tin Box:
Position.....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX]..............................Alert: 1243. Trail: 1230.
Leading Indicators Fall 0.6 Percent in May; Points to Plodding Economy
NEW YORK (AP) -- A widely watched gauge of economic activity slipped by 0.6 percent in May, the Conference Board said Thursday, suggesting that the nation's economy could weaken in coming months.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060622/economy.html?.v=9
NEW YORK (AP) -- A widely watched gauge of economic activity slipped by 0.6 percent in May, the Conference Board said Thursday, suggesting that the nation's economy could weaken in coming months.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060622/economy.html?.v=9
Stocks Dip As Interest Rate, Economic Worries Linger; Dollar Rallies Versus the Yen
NEW YORK (AP) Wall Street pulled back moderately Thursday as the day's headlines did little to distract investors from their discomfort over interest rates and the economy.
A slight rise in weekly unemployment claims met expectations of a weakening job market, but a greater-than-forecast drop in the Conference Board's index of leading indicators stoked concerns about a dropoff in economic growth. Meanwhile, higher oil prices and rising bond yields also weighed on Wall Street's mood.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060622/wall_street.html?.v=11
NEW YORK (AP) Wall Street pulled back moderately Thursday as the day's headlines did little to distract investors from their discomfort over interest rates and the economy.
A slight rise in weekly unemployment claims met expectations of a weakening job market, but a greater-than-forecast drop in the Conference Board's index of leading indicators stoked concerns about a dropoff in economic growth. Meanwhile, higher oil prices and rising bond yields also weighed on Wall Street's mood.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060622/wall_street.html?.v=11
The_Technician
Active member
Whaoooooo boy...whaoooooo...... good boy Trigger....think we have a break out from that bull pen......they all seem to be going to that cow over tha'r with that "G" string on!!!!:blink: Or its all that BS piled up in there.... sometimes you never know.....
You know what ya momma said steers, some days are good and some aren't so good.....patience is a virture.....
Gotta keep'em together there Trigger ole' boy.....we may have a few days like this one........(and hope helll don't break loose from some far away land.......)
Lets go find Daisy boy, Gitt'y up ...... !!!
You know what ya momma said steers, some days are good and some aren't so good.....patience is a virture.....
Gotta keep'em together there Trigger ole' boy.....we may have a few days like this one........(and hope helll don't break loose from some far away land.......)
Lets go find Daisy boy, Gitt'y up ...... !!!
Birchtree
Well-known member
FWIW - www.realmoney.com is offering a free day pass for those that might be interested in an investigation. They have many good writers. Enjoy.
