Market Talk / June 18 - 24

[Fivetears]

I find the dollar figure postings from the professed "Power Account" holders to be somewhat informative to TSP readers. They illustrate 2 things:
1. They know what it takes to get there (provided the TSP numbers are non-fiction and they are just that; TSP account totals).
2. Why they invest the way they do. These are the "Power" TSP retirement accounts of either the retired... or close to retired. They are not going to make very risky movements and emotionally throw it away in volitile TSP markets.

 

[Dave M]

Quite Right Granny

I recently received several PM's here from a person who requested financial planning advice from me, the sort of thing that only a certified financial planner can provide. Several times I assured him that I was unqualified to do so, and that he should seek same elsewhere, this was just a bunch of amateurs, etc. etc.

The way he persisted, I had the distinct impression that I was being set up to be busted for posing as a financial planner. It did not smell right. That person showed up here, did his PM-thing, and has not been heard from since which reinforces the negative impression.

On the other hand, I am pretty confident in the TSP.gov site. Password and private email addy are required to do anything over there, neither of which are available here.

Dave

 

[Fivetears]

God forbid someone takes home a TSP.gov computer with SSN's, Account #'s, and passwords. I recommend changing your TSP account access password REGULARLY! How many out there are still using the same password? Don't answer that.

 

[Birchtree]

DaveM,

You gave up your virginal amateur status a while back when you abandoned the pistol shooting for a more disciplined approach. I think you have a solid approach and demonstrating your strategy on a continous basis has provided a lead for others to perhaps follow. Nope, not an amateur anymore in my book. Solid as the Prudential rock. Take care.

Dennis

 

[grandma]

. I recommend changing your TSP account access password REGULARLY! How many out there are still using the same password? Don't answer that.

We are forced to change our passwords at work on a routine basis; one is to open the computer, the second is to enter the different work-related sites. Using that day to change the tsp # is a good reminder - except that the tsp pw is not nearly as complicated as the ones at work....so, changing it every 30 days seems more appropriate than 90 days. I'll bet there are a lot of hackers w/eyes really on the lookout now since the news broke about the theft-

 

[Birchtree]

I'm having a difficult time understanding all the noise and fear about interest rates. There have been occasions in the past when the ten year Treasury was yielding 7% and the market did fine. Let the rates come up so the certificate of deposit group can establish a decent return for their retirement years. There will be plenty of money to go around to keep investors happy and the markets bouyant. I'm ignoring the Fed speak - no panic from my perspective - these downdrafts provide good potential to dollar cost average - I'd prefer to add to my collection. When the Dow tops 12,600 by year end my bull manure will really smell good.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[Dave M]

I still have a 30-yr T-bill in my IRA paying 8.5% maturing in 2010, making up 40% of that portfolio. I had one that paid 10.5% but I sold it for a premium. The 80's were not all bad.

And so today the exodus continues. Money is leaving the system in large amounts. But where is it going? Why are bonds down and housing down and currencies down all at the same time? The answer must be -- cash. Therefore we can expect buying 'ere long. (Whistling past the grave yard.)

Dave

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P has now retraced about 50% of the recent rally. I hope that about does it but there is always a chance we test 1220 again. I may have gone 100% stocks this morning if I knew the Dow and particularly the small caps were going to get hit this hard after the deadline.

 

[Birchtree]

DaveM,

Yes, I remember when the 30 year bond was yielding 15% and cost only $50.00. And still no one wanted to buy because they thought inflation was going to last forever - it took one heck of a recession but Volker broke the back of that monster. Now everyone is worried rates are going to go up again - I say so what. We will always find ways to compensate. I start to get worried when I was watching everyone chase the I fund - the game was up. It is still a long term secular play but now will be more disciplined.

Here is the Birchtree philosophy: What's easy to do is almost always the wrong thing to do. And what's hard to do is almost always what makes you money. I remember I recommended to a young lady back in the early 80s that she invest an insurance settlement she received into Exxon at $30.00 paying a dididend of $3.00 for a soild yield of 10% and just keep reinvesting the dividends - she must be deep in the money with all those acquired shares and further dividend increases. It was a purchase that no one in their right mind would make - but so profitable.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Quite Right Granny

I recently received several PM's here from a person who requested financial planning advice from me, the sort of thing that only a certified financial planner can provide. Several times I assured him that I was unqualified to do so, and that he should seek same elsewhere, this was just a bunch of amateurs, etc. etc.

The way he persisted, I had the distinct impression that I was being set up to be busted for posing as a financial planner. It did not smell right. That person showed up here, did his PM-thing, and has not been heard from since which reinforces the negative impression.

On the other hand, I am pretty confident in the TSP.gov site. Password and private email addy are required to do anything over there, neither of which are available here.

Dave

Dave M, did the person that PM'ed you asking for advice sign his name as Rich? I checked my bulk mail and saw a Magdalena Richter. I didn't open the mail, but could be one and the same.

 

[Wheels]

provided the TSP numbers are non-fiction

A. Anybody can post any number they want, we have no way to confirm. With percentages we can use the tracker to confirm.

B. Why does Birch get to pick 400K as the "Power Account" standard. Because he says he reached it? (BTW, he stayed 100% C during a roughly 8% pullback, which means he must have come dangerously close to having to come up with a new standard).

C. I am not going to share my account balance here, but I will say that if 400K is the standard for "Power Account" then we need a new name for where I am sitting, perhaps "Super Power Account".

If someone beats my return by 5% to 10%, then I say they bested me, even if they didn't make as much as $$$.

Crawling back under my rock,

Dave
<><

 

[sugarandspice]

I currently have a little over 111,000 in my account and if you don't believe me then here is my password XXXXXXXXX and PIN XXXXX so you can check for yourself.

Sorry Sugar, had to go in and change a few things above and I think you better rethink about sending that Nigerian guy your bank account #.


I hope for your sake Sugar, I got to this in time.

 

[Fivetears]

S&S... The TSP Talk tag team champions. Do they not work well together? That's what I call a perfect demonstration of never leaving your wingman. :nuts:

I currently have a little over 111,000 in my account and if you don't believe me then here is my password XXXXXXXXX and PIN XXXXX so you can check for yourself.

Sorry Sugar, had to go in and change a few things above and I think you better rethink about sending that Nigerian guy your bank account #.


I hope for your sake Sugar, I got to this in time.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
June 19, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................Lube under 70 as Iran cools.
Con-Yak..................................Socks slump on rising rates.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1240.14, dn -11.40
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.062, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............-12.534, flat.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........42.01, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 40.54 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................69.55, dn -0.65
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Red / Green [doodles -, Lube < 70]

Tin Box:
Position.....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX]..............................Alert: 1243 [broken]. Trail: 1230.

 

[Birchtree]

Wheels,

You must not be a Live Free or Die native - we don't treat each other with such overt envy. We are all brothers in the Granite State, and I surely miss your summer nights. Now Dave I just have to lift that rock for a moment - but you certainly do leave a big footprint. Getting into the C fund in 4/01/04 at a $12.01 price is perfecto.

If you prefer to coin another level for a power account that's fine - I'll follow your lead. It was an arbitrary level - but the new guys coming on stream will surpass my level in less time because of the contribution changes removing the percentage caps. And when you get to be fifty you can dump another $5,000.00 for a grand total of $20,000.00/year. Now if a member is deployed that cap is raised up considerably to around $44,000.00 Heck, 20 years times 15K=300,000. Another 10 years worth of 20K=200,000 and if a member is consistent with dollar cost averaging - the amount in conjunction with market gains could easily escalate into the Super Power Account level - I would like to aspire to that level. And when I retire you can bet I'll still be working this puppy for another 20 years.

Now be careful because I'm going to lower your rock back down - did you notice that during this correction the C fund tried to maintain relative performance and did not drop like your rock is about ready to? You are nicely diversified in CSI - that's commendable. Please share the magic of your outperformance returns. Did you ride the 3000 points in 2003? If you participated then welcome to the Power Account level, if not there is nothing wrong with more time in grade we all have do it. Now please, when you cool off how about sending me a couple of pints of raspberries? Seriously, take care. Try and marry a New Hampshire gal and get assimilated to brotherly kindness. Oops, almost forgot the employer match as income.

 

[robo]

Birchtree,

Henry is staying the course, but does have a stop. First time I think he has used one.

 

[ocean]

I apologize by revealing the balance here but my original thought was to show my progress at this point in time and set the goal down the road. I don’t think it’s wrong. As far as security, I did not provide SSN, real name or anything other info other than an email address and a nickname when I signed up on this board. Thanks for the advice and I will be more careful on security from now on.

When I saw Birch’s number a few months back on his thread, it was an inspiration to me that I know this board really has some “Hidden Dragons”. Now Wheels is saying that he belongs to the Super Power Account category and I am glad and excited about that we do have some heavy weights here. If someone feels intimidated by it, remember that we were at your shoe once before. You account will be as large as you want by given time.

I do believe the size of the account is the factor. The bigger the account, the more conservative and careful you are in investing. Look at those mutual fund managers, they make million of dollars a year in salary plus bonus just by beating the S&P 500 returns in their portfolio for their clients. Well, I believe that most of you here have been beating S&P 500 for years in your TSP. The reason they earn millions and we earn our wages is that the size of the portfolio. My point is that the same percentage point of returns in reality is not quite the same when dealing with different size of portfolios.

Every movement on the market will change the power account or now the Super power account in thousands of dollars. I just looked at Wheels account allocation thread and he may drop more than $4K today with his allocation dropping about 1% in average. With the size of the accounts we now have, I guess we just have deal with it.

My final words, I believe that most TSP members in here have a lot of respect to Birch because of his insights and consistence. I do believe he is the voice here. Well I now call him (he did not yet) “John Wayne of TSP” because he’d never budged. Birch I’ll PM you with my TSP balance.

Ocean

 

[Birchtree]

Ocean,

Allah, I'm already disliked by the tumultous bears with their rear flaps open.

But how does Ocean 10, Ocean 11, Ocean 12 sound as you climb the ladder - you know darn well this economy is going to provide the opportunity and TSP provides the potential. It actually scares me more to be wealthy than poor. My wife often chides me to stop clipping the coupons (not bonds) for when I go shopping. Stop acting like your are poor she says - how do I do that after so many years of struggle - get gold? Nah, I still prefer the wall flowers and the C fund. I'm waiting and the tide is rolling in. Take care.

Dennis - permabull #1

That should be Ocean 1.0M, Ocean 1.1M....

 

[Dave M]

Power

Power is relative. I first felt powerful when my earnings exceeded my contributions. I raised my contributions. Now I feel powerful because my TSP's increase exceeds my take-home salary -- it is making more money than I am.

What's next?

Dave

 

[FundSurfer]

My 2 cent..

It doesn't really matter how much is in your account, it matters how much risk you are willing to assume. The assumption here is that if you have a "power account" then you would naturally be more conservative and not a shoot from the hip type. I disagree. I know people who are very conservative and are young. I also know people who move in and out of the market quite a bit and are near retirement in FERS. I am mid-career at this point which should tell you that I'm not a young gun with nothing to loose. I take more risk than the norm now and will likely take more risk in the future than the norm as well. I personally don't care how many dollars you have in your account, but I do like to know how well you are doing versus the S&P. I can also appreciate when someone says that they are nearing retirement and are tending toward being a little more protective. You don't have to have the highest balance or be top of the tally to gain my respect.