Market Talk Jan. 29 - Feb. 4

[Fivetears]

What a 4th Quarter come-back on the C & I Funds! The S remained trapped under the red-line ice. Wonder what's up with that? All looks reasonably well in the earnings reports today.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Feb. 01, 2006
​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Roller coaster day! Ending higher on the Boing!
Other Yak.............. Lube hits 2 week high, then drops 2% on cashout.

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1282.46, up +2.38
Money flow............ +0.184, decreasing.
Stops.................... NA.
Averages............... +3.80, increasing.
Slow STO............... 65.95, increasing.
Overbought/sold...... [70] 56.1 [30]

Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 66.56, dn -1.36
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff..... Yellow.

The Tin Box:
Position................. 100%G.

 

[Wheels]

Japan up 235 points right out of the gate..............again. Australia also up about .25%....down from.5%. Looking for a "better buying opportunity". In other words, I'm waiting for the markets to pare down a bit but it just keeps on rolling. Of course if I jump in now it'll come down like a house of cards.

Dave
<><

 

[Wizard]

Japan looked the same way yesterday during their first session. Up nearly 175 points at one point.

It was the second session that the worm turned.

 

[teknobucks]

markets weathered goog news quite well....stepping in a bit.

F fund exposure expected to be very quick in and out by end of week. can not stand that fund but it does seem somewhat oversold.

mid east situation looks REAL FUGLY...wish we could use stops in tsp.
tekno

 

[Fivetears]

Trust your instincts.

Japan up 235 points right out of the gate..............again. Australia also up about .25%....down from.5%. Looking for a "better buying opportunity". In other words, I'm waiting for the markets to pare down a bit but it just keeps on rolling. Of course if I jump in now it'll come down like a house of cards.

Dave
<><

C'mon in! The mud is fine!

 

[Mike]

F fund exposure expected to be very quick in and out by end of week. can not stand that fund but it does seem somewhat oversold.

Yes, it is oversold. A correction in equities would probably change that in a hurry. Unfortunately, that correction is taking its sweet time. If the hawkish Fed comments don't provide the impetus for a sell-off, then it looks like we'll have to wait and see what happens with the Iranians. It has been reported that they mistakenly showed a drawing to inspectors whose application would solely be for nuclear warheads (i.e. metal encasing of uranium). They also conducted a high explosives test a couple years ago that was discovered by inspectors during their one allowed inspection of some military facility - again, with a direct application to nuclear warheads. Of course, they are also threatening to start massive uranium enrichment if referred to the UN Security Council as well.

I happen to think this situation will get worse over the next month and put some psychological pressure on the markets (it already has to some degree, but a military confrontation would add substantially to that).

 

[Wizard]

USD is on a rocket. Up .70% now. Pretty good move in the last two days. The FOMC statement was rather hawkish. It feels like 2000 again. Hiking into slowing growth. Like I have been saying the fed will protect the USD before they protect asset prices. But we shall see.

 

[Mike]

The markets haven't engaged in the same level of irrational exuberance that they did in 2000, though.

I anticipate a correction coming, but I doubt it'll match the severity of the tech bubble burst 5-6 years ago.

 

[Wizard]

Interesting point.

Counterpoint. I feel a lot of people will not hang around to get burned like they did in 2000-2002 and will be quicker to yank their dough out then buy and hold. A lot of people kept throwing money into the market everyday the NASDAQ was down 50 or more at 3:50pm. I had a number of friends that would call into Charles Schwab and buy another $1000 to $20000 worth of tech stocks on every big down day. With a negative savings rate first time since 1933, there will be a lot less money on the sidelines to buffer a fall. Another point everyone is not making $200 an hour doing computer jobs. In 2000 I was making $350 an hour and all the overtime I wanted. I am making a 10th of that now doing the same job working for the government. Actually the job I have now is a lot more stressful and demanding since I am doing the work of 3 people now. In the good old days working for the government was for peanuts. Now my friends that could not get a govt job are working for less then $20 and can not get overtime work.

I feel the rush for the door this time will be a lot more quicker and painful. I just hope people will not be so unwise that they watch their networth go down another 70% twice in one decade. The same people that got burnt on tech stocks in 2000 are loading up on them again. Some things never change.

 

[Mike]

Is there a way to accurately assess who is in the market and to what extent (beyond TSP member account postings )?

This is totally based on a "gut feeling", but I don't believe the "retail investor" participation rate has been anything close to what it was a few years ago. The market simply hasn't performed well enough over the past two years to get their attention, which has probably been fixated on that overheated real estate market instead.

Investor education is something that is sorely lacking. Even if much effort was put into it, I still think a fair number of people would make emotional decisions and buy the tops / sell the bottoms. There's just no escaping human nature.

 

[Wizard]

There is a lot of people out there that have the attitude when I get back to even I will start "peeling off profits".

CNBC has been putting up record ratings so there is a lot more then we think.

 

[The_Technician]

Another caveat

to a down market coming ....
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060202/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

Worker productivity is slowing and wages increasing....inflationary and the Feds will keep raising rates on this point....

 

[Wizard]

Operation Save USD in full effect.

 

[Fivetears]

Iran is just a Mouth. Enjoy the White Water Rapids.

If the hawkish Fed comments don't provide the impetus for a sell-off, then it looks like we'll have to wait and see what happens with the Iranians. I happen to think this situation will get worse over the next month and put some psychological pressure on the markets (it already has to some degree, but a military confrontation would add substantially to that).

It took a few years for the world community to deal with Mr. Sodomy Insane in Iraq, and will more than likely spend just as much time dealing with the crackpots in Iran. The only monkey wrench that could be thrown into the rotating market mass will come from Israel; Bet on it.

You know... I respect the folks who stand back & listen to someone who can't stop talking allot of mean & cruel $*#@, and then outta nowhere... walk up to the loud mouth... reach back into Minnesota... and cold-cock 'em.

 

[The_Technician]

The Technicians Viewpoint

Dollar should be strengthening for a while....doesn't bode well for the I fund.... under this pretense, I would start to expect the markets to make a downward move....

The International Security Agency is looking into the Iran thing.....this isn't a good sign...I feel again under this pretense to expect the markets to make a harder downward move.....investors will be unsure of its outcome and will exit to take safer positions....

Oil is suffering from mud on their face, they are guilty of exploiting the world situation to pump up the prices.......expect some defensive postures from their camp....it will be a while until they release their grip on it and may have to be forced to concede....

Interest rates will continue to go up.....inflation numbers will not subside to quickly, they will stop when the general populace just goes broke......it won't be long, this squeeze that they have been putting on them for the last 5-10 years is starting to show blood....the consumer is 70% of the economy, and they are about choked out......their spending is up only due to higher prices, not to the increase in their product purchases.....

Birchy, since you are the permanent bull, its fair to ask for you to tell us what you think about the current situation....I would be all ears at the moment myself.....

 

[Wizard]

Heard that if we do anything to Iran, Chavez will cut us off. We get 20-30% of our crude/products from his country.

G fund is looking really good right now.

USD up .68% and Euroland fading to the close.

Correction: USD up .75%.

 

[The_Technician]

Taken a hit

The Wilshire and EAF are taken early hits this morning.....data indicates the power behind the downstrokes is substantial.....of course that is early on and what happens later is up to the world economics....and todays news.....

I couldn't find anything on Chavez's comments Wizard....do you have a particular news item we could read.....????

 

[Wizard]

Read the overseas newspapers. The U.S. newspapers are propoganda.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=2&ObjectID=10366185

VIENNA - Major US oil provider Venezuela stands by its promise to back Opec-partner Iran in its argument with the West over its atomic programme, Venezuela's oil minister said on Monday.


Venezuela has a multibillion dollar energy trade with the United States, shipping 1.5 million barrels of crude and refined oil products north every day.

 

[learning]

Well I bailed out to the G. I will pick up the penny I hope. Made some in the S fund and hope that it won't get hurt to bad today. I will move to the I fund next week. Provided this Iran situation does not take a bad turn.