Market Talk Jan. 29 - Feb. 4

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition​

Jan. 29, 2006
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​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.​

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Socks stretching higher, However! US stocks are either trending up, or down, or trading within a confined range of prices. A confined range of prices is a trading range.​

Chart attached: The current S&P 500. Last October, and into November the price of oil was declining and stocks were trending up. However, in the later part of November the stocks got in a trading range of (S&P) 1245 to 1275, also oil futures started back up.​

http://www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html

The new year brought a stock euphoria that took us to a new high of 1294. After that the market declined. It then bounced off a low of 1259. The January euphoria just repositioned the trading range.

Other Yak.............. Lube was slightly down for the week. Yet, as long as it remains high, it acts as resistance to an upside break-out. The C-fund could go up a bit, the S-fund is overbought, the I-fund has some room up, but risky, the F-fund is a dead cat, and as always the G-fund is the safety net.​

Doodles:​

Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1283.72, up +22.23 for the week.
Money flow........... +0.123, increasing.
Averages.............. +2.95, increasing.
Slow STO.............. 41.31, increasing.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 44.3 [30]
Stops................... NA.
Chart................... 6mo., 20dMA, 50dMA, MACD, RSI (Attached).

Lube.................... Light Crude (NYM)​

Closed at.............. 67.76, dn -0.72 for the week.
Markers:............... <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:​

Charts and Stuff.... Yellow.

The Tin Box:​

Position................ 100G.
TSP Ended: G=11.19 F=10.68 C=13.95 S=17.27 I=18.60
Last Week: G=11.18 F=10.74 C=13.70 S=16.83 I=17.97

​

 

[The_Technician]

Hmm...hunting season

is over and when I get back the market makes a minor move.... Looking for a down draft for a few days.

Dollar is getting stronger,and should be for a period....

Interesting market action should be happening from now till April..(What will happen at that time.......M3 isn't going to be reported anymore, 1st quarter ends...what else oh, reasons for the oil wrench to get torqued again)..and then we will see where it goes....

 

[Wizard]

Looks like another day of flying yields. Tomorrow 2:15pm or so fed fund rate 4.50% and 10 year 4.53%. 30 year treasury auction Feb 9. That will be interesting.

Hopefully this message posts. Was unable to over the weekend.

 

[clester]

Wizard,
You seem well versed in bond speak. Whats the 10 year and fed funds rate mean to the economy?

 

[mlk_man]

Inversion..............

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Jan. 30, 2006​

​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Socks mixed! Vestors jittery over Cartel creature.
Other Yak.............. Krude kicks lube up to weekly high.

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1285.20, up +1.48
Money flow............ +0.214, increasing.
Stops.................... NA.
Averages............... +3.58, increasing.
Slow STO.............. 42.07, increasing.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 58.3 [30]

Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 68.35, up +0.59
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff..... Yellow.

The Tin Box:
Position................. 100%G.​

 

[Quips]

flat yield curve

Clester:

Most investors are very weary of flat yield curves much less one that inverts from lower yields for longer term bonds to higher yields to shorter term bonds.
If bond yields "invert" over a period of 30 days ... I believe it is ... then chances of a recession six months down the road are about 80%.

It's something like that.

Some analysts ... like Bob Brinker ... are saying the Fed should stop raising rates after Greenspan leaves.

Word is Greenspan and Bernanke may think alike about a "core" inflation rate of no more than two percent.

I believe Dec. 05 core rate came in at 1.9 percent.

Energy prices are acting as a drag on the economy; they are both taking away purchasing power and inflating prices of other goods and services at the same time.

As you know Exxon's profits over the past year have broken the record for any American corporation in history.

 

[James48843]

my senses tell me flat for a bit

maybe evenb down a little, then i think up a little, then, with the next ten days, a pretty hefty downward movement.

I'm up over 8% this month, currently sitting 30 % S, 30% C, 40% I- but thinking its time to roll into "preserve the gain" mode.

What do you think? Is it time to roll 60% into G and hold the gain?

That is what I have been doing- runnning back and forth between 60% G after a good run up, and then buying back in on the dips....but I can't tell yet if this is the coasting near the top for a while....

Two of the factors I think will hit shortly, but won't be visible for another couple weeks in any hard data, are:

1. Energy- heating bills much bigger now appearing; and
2. Credit Card new laws- making double the minimum payment required.

I think that will be the one-two punch of february and march.....

thoughts, anyone?

 

[oldschool]

along the East Coast January has been unseasonably warm so heating bills seem to be coming in much lower than expected...

 

[Spaf]

Fundamentals: The Horseman Krude

Market Talk
Fundamentals
Jan. 30, 2006​

News: NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Exxon Mobil Corp. set U.S. records for annual and quarterly profits Monday as it easily topped fourth-quarter earnings forecasts.

The nation's largest oil company reported net income in the fourth quarter of $10.7 billion, or $1.71 a share, compared to $8.4 billion, or $1.30 a share, a year earlier.

Hunh! Spaf

 

[Quips]

one more thing

Clester:

Energy prices are acting as a drag on the economy; they are both taking away purchasing power and inflating prices of other goods and services at the same time.

... when personal and national debt levels are also figured into the mix, I have a healthy respect for gold investors.

My next investment will either be a portion of that/a basket of such commodities or emerging marrkets.

The optimist would go for emerging markets in my opinion; the pessimist into gold, chemicals, paper, steel, etc.

 

[The_Technician]

Oil Profits

I guess we got the answer if oil profits profits are from legit business.....in other words did they earn a reasonable profit from their cost of producing a product or ...

did they jack you up and say "I GOTCHA!"....

Oh the humanity......boy, maybe I should get into a position and JACK the general public up and say the same thing......but something tells me that would be putting the screws on an innocent bunch and that would make me a WHAT!!!!????? How do they live with themselves?????

Did anybody read George Soros evaluation of possiblities that may come our way....something like $235/bbl.....now why would he be interested in that???.... maybe he is conspiring with others to jack up oil prices to stuff our economy for economic and political power purposes... ..all he wants is access to the general publics tax revenues, then he and the other like him are filthy rich!!!!..... off of "your back" I might say.....now how in the h e ll do you like that......

 

[Wizard]

GOOG was down over $36 when it was halted in the after hours.

Funny how they never get halted when they beat earnings.

What a rigged game?

 

[Wheels]

After today, the month of January's gain will be roughly C=2.75%, S=6.5%, AND I=6%. So much for the big rotation out of small caps and into big caps that many of the experts have been predicting. I'm done trying to anticipate it. I'll leave that to Birchtree. With interest rates so low historically, the small cap run might go on indefinately.

Dave
<><

 

[Cortez]

GOOG was down over $36 when it was halted in the after hours.

Funny how they never get halted when they beat earnings.

What a rigged game?

GOOG started trading again - now below $375 and it got as low as $355.

 

[Soldat]

The last time Fed raised rates to 4.5, they lowered them back later that month. Will the hike remain? Many analysts (and I realize a large amount of them ARE in the bond market) say that Fed has overshot the mark. Will there be more hikes? The street says there is an 80% chance of one last hike. Many others say it is doubtful. In the end, it all will balance on the GDP. Why did the Fed hike at a low GDP, with many jobs in construction forecasted to be lost on 2006? Simple, Fed would rather see stagnant markets then a decadent dollar. However they approach matters, the result will be the same. The dollar will trade down to 105Y and the proportionally equivalent Euro. Neither a war economy, nor a slew of rate hikes will change the fact that the US has been, for a time now, getting ahead of itself.

And on top of that, watch China unload US debt while we attempt to sell off some more ourselves.

And I was just trying to make some money...

 

[robo]

Are we headed back to test the 50 DMA

GOOG started trading again - now below $375 and it got as low as $355.

The TA's I follow have been missing lately, but Google selling off could stir things up tomorrow, and give us a chance to add some equities soon.


The Internationals could give us a early warning for tomorrows market and President Bush could influence things tonight.



Comment's from a Tech about Google below. I'm not saying the Tech below is correct, but the risk reward has increased!


The Market will do what it wants. I'm just waiting for the Trend to become clearer, so I can add stock. Still Bullish long term, short term cautious.


The Trend is your friend! Good Investing and trading! I'm staying patient and waiting for a significant tradable trend to go 100% long.



Cosing Comment Addendum

Sub-title: "Requiem for Google" or, "The joy of owning high-flyers!", or: Is this deja vu, or what?

It looks as if Google has helped the market make up its mind! And with a chart pattern that looks as if all we did was to test the recent 1294 level and failed, the odds have increased significantly that we are indeed correcting the October uptrend with a probable 50% retracement to 1232, and perhaps more!

Unless George Bush can be exceptionally inspiring in his address tonight, the market is in for a rough opening tomorrow morning!

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Jan. 31, 2006​

​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Cartel to keep Horseman Rats on the payroll.
Other Yak.............. Lube seeps slowly below 68.

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1280.08, dn -5.12
Money flow............ +0.193, decreassing.
Stops................... NA.
Averages............... +3.62, increasing.
Slow STO.............. 56.12, increasing.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 54.7 [30]

Lube.................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at.............. 67.92, dn -0.43
Markers:............... <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff.... Yellow.

The Tin Box:
Position................ 100%G.​

 

[mlk_man]

It looks as if Google has helped the market make up its mind! And with a chart pattern that looks as if all we did was to test the recent 1294 level and failed, the odds have increased significantly that we are indeed correcting the October uptrend with a probable 50% retracement to 1232, and perhaps more!

Unless George Bush can be exceptionally inspiring in his address tonight, the market is in for a rough opening tomorrow morning!

Can you guess who else will be buying Google tomorrow besides myself?

Think like the big money my friends.........

Small caps and the NYSE were up today, remember that.

 

[Skip]

Can you guess who else will be buying Google tomorrow besides myself?

Think like the big money my friends.........

Small caps and the NYSE were up today, remember that.

ME ?
Got 50@370.25 after the close..
Skip