Market Talk Jan. 29 - Feb. 4

[Wizard]

Not looking good so far.

Appears the "dumb money stock traders" I talked about last week are starting to realize this week an inverted yield curve is not such good shakes.

Lets see how it looks when the fed fund rate is 4.75 and the 10 year is 4.6% in 5 weeks. Flashback 2000.

 

[vectorman]

I agree with Wizards' counterpoint statement above. Even in my workplace, the talk now is... " I'm not about to stay in the market and watch it fall like before." I don't know if this is a contrarian situation for the market to go higher, but many of my co-workers are grateful for the profits from January and had moved into the G fund prior to this down day.

 

[Mike]

Venezuela cutting us off makes no sense. They'd cut off the US and do what... ship their oil halfway around the world at higher cost? We'd just substitute oil from another source - Russia or whoever was willing to sell it. That's the beauty of the free market. Just because tinpot dictator Hugo Chavez doesn't want to sell oil to the US doesn't mean someone else will refuse to step in and sell it. There's simply too much money to be made off our consumption.

As for CNBC's "popularity", they are a cable station that draws at most a couple million viewers at any given time - and usually draw far less than that. Now consider that there's hundreds of millions of investors in this world that are taking part in the market to varying degrees. What a thin slice of them choose to do because of CNBC isn't going to steer the market.

 

[JOVARN]

Baring any major advances on IRAN, I am looking at entry point of 2230 for NASDAQ and 1240 for the S&P; now how is that for wishful thinking.

I got in the S&P at 1170 and held it for a few weeks, and yes I am spoiled
I just hate to give it back once I have it.

By the way where did Wonder Woman go?

 

[The_Technician]

Entry point

Baring any major advances on IRAN, I am looking at entry point of 2230 for NASDAQ and 1240 for the S&P; now how is that for wishful thinking.

I got in the S&P at 1170 and held it for a few weeks, and yes I am spoiled
I just hate to give it back once I have it.

By the way where did Wonder Woman go?

I had been looking that way myself Jovarn.....but I'm guessing in the lower 1200's like 1220 or so.....its a timing thing though.....

If we start a decline and continue, I'm leaning to 1000's to 900's in the S&P.......but whose to say we actually will.....but IRAn could do this for us....

 

[Wizard]

Venezuela cutting us off makes no sense. They'd cut off the US and do what... ship their oil halfway around the world at higher cost? We'd just substitute oil from another source - Russia or whoever was willing to sell it. That's the beauty of the free market. Just because tinpot dictator Hugo Chavez doesn't want to sell oil to the US doesn't mean someone else will refuse to step in and sell it. There's simply too much money to be made off our consumption.

As for CNBC's "popularity", they are a cable station that draws at most a couple million viewers at any given time - and usually draw far less than that. Now consider that there's hundreds of millions of investors in this world that are taking part in the market to varying degrees. What a thin slice of them choose to do because of CNBC isn't going to steer the market.

Couple things:

Russia sides with Iran also. China would gladly take that crude off their hands. Or Brazil would gladly take the crude. They are a booming economy.

All most a double inside 6 months:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=EWZ

Chavez does not want USDs anymore anyway and would love to stick it to us. It is not a free market when you can only buy and sell in USDs and some countries are starting to bulk.

Watch Cramer on CNBC and watch what his stock picks do after hours. Up 5-10-15-20% within minutes. I know he has picked 6 of my longs so far this year that I sold into those animals.

His pick of the day yesterday was BKHM that I just sold this morning. At the time it was up 16%.

 

[Wizard]

Oh yeah. His pick of the day two days ago was CAT and BA.

That was good for 100 DOW points yesterday.

No, that is not steering the market. Considering the DOW was up 89.

 

[Mike]

Attempting to steer individual stocks is one thing. Attempting to steer an entire market is another. CNBC can't and won't drive the market. Are you going to tell me some rather inconsequential cable station is going to drive share values of an entire economy?

The global oil market has a set amount of supply and demand - if one supplier decides not to sell to a consumer nation (US), its oil must go somewhere else. The moment that oil goes somewhere else (as opposed to being yanked off the market entirely), another supplier will shift its oil to the consumer that needs it - in order to make money.

Profit motive is a very powerful force. It might drive costs up a bit, but not nearly as much as would be the case if oil was pulled off the market by Venezuela or Iran.

 

[Wizard]

Good conversation Mike.

Key date will be March 20th when Iran opens up a trading Bourse that will allow crude to be traded in Euros.

Your comments above remind me of Faber and Kennan opioning in July 2002. "No one twisted these peoples arms to buy tech stocks".

 

[Wizard]

White House to request billions for Iraq war, hurricane relief

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The White House has told Congress to expect requests for about $70 billion in additional funding for the ongoing budget year for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and $18 billion more for hurricane relief, a Senate GOP aide says.

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/02/02/budget.emergencyspend.ap/index.html

-------------

This budget request is for estimated expenses to September 30th.

Like water through a strainer. Expect another one around July if history repeats.

 

[Wizard]

AMZN (Amazon) is getting beat with a stick after hours.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Feb. 02, 2006
​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Good News: Lube is down. Bummer so are socks. Results were a bitter.
Other Yak.............. Slip and slide the trading range.

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1270.84, dn -11.62
Money flow............ +0.132, decreasing.
Stops................... NA.
Averages............... +2.97, decreasing.
Slow STO.............. 54.62, decreasing.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 48.4 [30]

Lube.................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at.............. 64.68, dn -1.88
Markers:............... <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff..... Yellow.

The Tin Box:
Position................. 100%G.

 

[Fivetears]

Sombody buy them a darned Fish Finder!

Glad Big Daddy Bush Sr. called his Saudi buddies and got that oil down 2 bucks. We're gonna need it since those drunk Oil Tanker Captains are STILL scaring everyone by running those sludge haulers aground in Alaska. They need to put a Hummingbird Fish Finder on those bigazzed tubs of crud! They're on sale at WALMART for $470.00. A 4-year old can find bottom with one of 'em. GEEZE! My Big Block Chevy is addicted to fossil fuel! It's so YUMMY!

 

[tsptalk]

AMZN (Amazon) is getting beat with a stick after hours.

The Nasdaq futures seem unfazed for some reason.

 

[JOVARN]

Glad Big Daddy Bush Sr. called his Saudi buddies and got that oil down 2 bucks. We're gonna need it since those drunk Oil Tanker Captains are STILL scaring everyone by running those sludge haulers aground in Alaska. They need to put a Hummingbird Fish Finder on those bigazzed tubs of crud! They're on sale at WALMART for $470.00. A 4-year old can find bottom with one of 'em. GEEZE! My Big Block Chevy is addicted to fossil fuel! It's so YUMMY!

_______________________________________________________________
Talk about Fish finders I bought this at $23 after the hurricane its now $38
Now thats luck
Lowrance Electronics (LEIX)

 

[Wizard]

Australia and Japan have fallen off the table.

USD is up .52%

 

[robo]

1260's or 1290's

The jobs report could influence the market tomorrow and Investors will be keeping a eye on Iran. Can we get a whipsaw again ? Don't know, don't care, currently heavy in cash. The market does what it wants day to day! I'm waiting for the next Trend to start. We have been trying to break thru 1290's for months, eventually we will. The S and I have been the money makers. Both ripe for a small correction.

Some comments from a Tech below, the short term Technicals say sell, but the TA's I follow have been incorrect all year... Most are now in cash! Posting comments from them doesn't mean I agree with them, just pointing out what their computer programs are showing.

It's only important if you are making short term plays. Longer term investors that don't make many moves should yawn at the day to day market action. Tom's TSP Long Term is up over 3% YTD, NICE!

Update: 3:15 ET

The 1260 level of the SPX and comparable level of the QQQQ may be tested before the current decline is over. The hourly indicators are not yet in a "buy" position.


Closing Comment

The 1260 level should provide temporary support, but it is not expected to be the end of the decline. However, there should be another bounce before the 1246 level is tested.

 

[learning]

Ohh that hurt that just hurt. LOL I should have gotten out one day sooner. Came close and got greedy. Held one day to long. I'm out now. Well I still made 11 cents overall. So let it fall so I can get in. Next ride. "I" express. Well wait for a time though. Too busy crying. : (

 

[Fivetears]

$38.00? Let me get my waders on. It's gettin' deep.

Talk about Fish finders
I bought this at $23 after the hurricane its now $38
Now thats luck
Lowrance Electronics (LEIX)

Awe come-on now Jovarn. Those crude cruisers gotta have at least a 1000 ft warning horn hardwired to the lounge. It'll take at least 30 minutes for Popeye to find his way from the bar to the bridge. Where ya gonna buy that for under $40 new. Popeye has liabilities man.

http://www.walmart.com/catalog/product.do?product_id=3426875&cat=5188&type=21&dept=4125&path=0%3A4125%3A4145%3A5188

 

[Birchtree]

Peeling

Robo,

I peeled off 10% from a small cap fund the other day and reallocated to a large cap fund - hope the smalls continue with new highs - I plan to peel off 10% every couple of months until I'm out and holding the bag full of large caps and large cap internationals. I think the Fed has paused, finally. And the market should react very positively with a flood of cash creating the volume to confirm a continuing bull move of extreme proportions.

Dennis - permabull #2