Market Talk Jan. 29 - Feb. 4

[The_Technician]

Encouraging

Robo,

I peeled off 10% from a small cap fund the other day and reallocated to a large cap fund - hope the smalls continue with new highs - I plan to peel off 10% every couple of months until I'm out and holding the bag full of large caps and large cap internationals. I think the Fed has paused, finally. And the market should react very positively with a flood of cash creating the volume to confirm a continuing bull move of extreme proportions.

Dennis - permabull #2

Your moving assets affirms something...things are changing and I think you are recognizing this Birchy.....

Now check this out ....its your deepest fear you permanent bull you.....

A much stronger-than-forecast gain in payrolls or a drop in unemployment could actually be bad news for the markets, feeding recent worries about inflation on signs that the tighter labor market is starting to put upward pressure on wages.

"Too strong a number could cause fear of an overheating economy," said Peter Cardillo, chief market strategist SW Bach. "I think if we got anything above a 300,000 or 350,000 gain, you're going to see bonds sell off and negative sentiment in anticipation of not one more hike but a few more hikes.
"If we get a disappointing number (on payrolls) it could raise hopes the Fed is done," he added. "Remember, the Fed has left the door open for what it's going to do. We're not on automatic pilot any more."


I personally believe the trend will be upward pressure on wages.....therefore more rate hikes....its just typical of this situation.....so expect it.....

Birchy you gotta flex up a bit son......swing both ways....a little bull a little bear....a little more bull ....a little more bear.....you get the cadence....

 

[The_Technician]

Gainer and losers

See this report on how brutal yesterday was on Wall street....
http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/02/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm

I registered some very powerful moves in the trading yesterday....and it was across the board in the negative.....gainer vs losers was on the 12:5 ratio yesterday......keep those eyes open all.....

 

[Wizard]

Euroland turned south on the job numbers.

Treasury yields are spiking.

USD up .24%.

 

[NASAguy]

Dollar will be stronger for a longer period of time since we are going to continue to raise rates. Two months ago the market thought 4.5% was the magical number. Now 4.75% seems more and more like a "done deal" as time goes on. I think 5% will become the next target soon. As this becomes more and more clear, the market will react.

 

[Wizard]

Dollar will be stronger for a longer period of time since we are going to continue to raise rates. Two months ago the market thought 4.5% was the magical number. Now 4.75% seems more and more like a "done deal" as time goes on. I think 5% will become the next target soon. As this becomes more and more clear, the market will react.

And the bag holders will be those long stocks. .

Man this is so 2000.

 

[NASAguy]

Yep. All we need now is for Iran to do something stupid. Of course, in their minds it probably won't seem stupid at all. The next couple of weeks have the potential to be huge.

I'm curious to see how the bond sale goes next week. Who wants to buy a bunch of bonds in a currency that may tank soon?

 

[The_Technician]

Interest

rates will continue upwards until the economy cools and when the Oil geniuses (like it takes one) decide its fruitless to jack up the public and purge the world economy for their profits. Lastly, when terroism declines, its having an effect on the world economics in various ways that cost the general public which promotes inflation....its going to be a while I'm afraid.

Someone turn out the lights when they close the door....

Of course things could go in reverse in the near future and we all will cheer up!!!

 

[Wizard]

Newsflash: We are all ready in a recession.

 

[Wizard]

Oh my!!!!!

Buckle your seat belts. The futures just turned south.

 

[NASAguy]

And the dollar just blew thru the 1.20 resistance level against the Euro. Bad I Fund day.

 

[Wizard]

And the dollar just blew thru the 1.20 resistance level against the Euro. Bad I Fund day.

Euroland markets plunging. The old one two.

 

[NASAguy]

I hate sitting out, but have been for a couple of weeks. Too much risk for me right now.

I wonder if we will have the usual "Friday afternoon profit taking/CYA/not too sure about this" sell-off today.

 

[Wizard]

I have been out since January 17th or 18th (delayed request).

I like you want to see what the treasury auctions do next week.

Key will be Feb 9th - 14B 30yr auction.

Like I said January 30th.

Kick back, put your feet up and watch the fun.

 

[NASAguy]

Yep, I'll get back in soon. I'm just waiting to see what shakes out. I think we will have a really clearer picture by the 13th or 14th. Right now I figure I'll be looking really hard over the weekend of the 11th/12th to see if I want to get back in.

 

[Mike]

Newsflash: We are all ready in a recession.

No we aren't. The GDP is still in positive territory, and that is the true measure of whether or not the economy is in recession. The economy is still adding jobs, and the unemployment number is at 4.7%.

Last quarter's GDP number was certainly a red flag, but to say we are in a recession now is premature.

As for the Dollar, it will not tank with our interest rates climbing. Once the Fed halts, that's another matter.

 

[NASAguy]

You are correct about the dollar. But other countries are also raising rates and as soon as we stop doing so the underlying issues with our tradeand deficit will become primary problems and the currency will drop. It may drop hard and fast.

 

[The_Technician]

Euro/Dollar

is 1.1994:$1

.....we should be declining (market wise) until end of Feb if this is the break point.....

 

[Mike]

The last rate hike is probably months away - two meetings down the line. Since the market is forward-looking, the time to expect a "surprise" drop in the dollar would be after the next meeting.

 

[Wizard]

No we aren't. The GDP is still in positive territory, and that is the true measure of whether or not the economy is in recession. The economy is still adding jobs, and the unemployment number is at 4.7%.

Last quarter's GDP number was certainly a red flag, but to say we are in a recession now is premature.

As for the Dollar, it will not tank with our interest rates climbing. Once the Fed halts, that's another matter.

A recession is defined in macroeconomics as a fall of a country's real Gross Domestic Product in two or more successive quarters.

 

[NASAguy]

I expect the dollar to drop. No "surprise" here.