Market Talk / Dec. 10 - 16

[Griffin]

... Grif, do you think the market/indices priced a rate reduction into the current market levels? I don't think so. But if it is, adios CSI.

In short, no, these prices are still being driven by the "soft landing/goldilocks talk" with an extra helping of retail euphoria (that balloon is about to get popped). I do believe that specualtion of a rate drop is what has been holding this particular rally (the last ten days) from dropping during the consolidation

I'm thinking tomorrow is going to be the start of our next run.

 

[fedgolfer]

I'm thinking tomorrow is going to be the start of our next run.

... I agree, DWCPF/S fund will close at its lower trend line that proved support/good buys on 10/3, 11/2 and 11/29. Fed policy said nothing to provoke the trend. Tomorrow "Should be" big green for S... well, it better be

 

[Griffin]

Two days - here's my prediction (guess....swag....whatever you want to call it)

- SPX closes 1418 tomorrow and bounces off 1426 Thursday to close at 1423.

- DWCP (I don't like DWCPF) closes at 636 tomorrow and bounces off 1641 Thursday to close at 1639.

 

[nnuut]

Well, I hope so it's (DWCP) been eating my lunch for a week!:nuts: I'm hungry!!!

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
December 12, 2006 Closing ​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks bounce off lows.

Con-Yak...................................Still in the ice flow!

Jester-Yak................................A few bergs scratched socks.

Doodles:
TSP Socks leader........................I-fund
Last 12 months..........................up 28.20%

Socks [EFA] Closed at.................73.75 up +0.30.
Stops.......................................Alert: 73.75. Trail: 72.35
MACD hist.................................+0.095, increasing
Trend (P-SAR)............................positive.
Overbought/sold (RSI).................[70] 70.67 [30] increasing

$USD........................................82.94 dn -0.26

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................61.02, dn -0.20
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Tally (Allocation Avg.).......G=31, F=13, C=03, S=28, I=25
Leaders Play...............................Bullish: 56%...Bearish 44%.

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition - Addendum
December 12, 2006​

Little EFA did some range consolidation in November, breaking out to the upside in December. Two minor higher lows have been made. Hopefully, she has her trend back........:nuts:

Run Little Efa........

........run!​

Chart courtesy of www.Stockcharts.com
[Annotations added]​

 

[weatherweenie]

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5.

 

[weatherweenie]

08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. Futures trade strengthens following encouraging retail sales data, now pointing to an even stronger start for the indices. November retail sales rose a surprising 1.0% (consensus 0.2%) while sales, ex-autos, rose a stronger than expected 1.1% (consensus 0.3%), to suggest consumer spending remains solid, especially during the crucial holiday shopping season. Bonds, in contrast, have reversed course as the 10-yr note is now down 8 ticks to yield 4.51%.

 

[weatherweenie]

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.0.

 

[weatherweenie]

SP500 fractionally over 1415. Let's see if it holds.

 

[ATCJeff]

F fund is going to get hammered today. Sorry guys/gals....

 

[weatherweenie]

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.0.

Yet another example of how useless futures can be. After gapping up, the markets have fallen, and are basically flat.

 

[Oldcoin]

Yet another example of how useless futures can be. After gapping up, the markets have fallen, and are basically flat.

I read somewhere that future traders are wrong more than they’re right. Because of the way they trade they try to make more $ when they are right than they loose when they are wrong. I think that would drive me crazy.

 

[weatherweenie]

11:00 am : Major averages are now trading in split fashion as further appreciation in oil prices continues to take the wind out of the market's sales. Crude for January delivery is up more than 1.0% at $61.65/bbl after the Energy Dept. reported larger than expected drawdowns in weekly crude and distillate supplies.

 

[Birchtree]

I can't complain - when oil is up I tend to do better. I think eventually by days end SPX 1415 becomes support.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

I read somewhere that future traders are wrong more than they’re right. Because of the way they trade they try to make more $ when they are right than they loose when they are wrong. I think that would drive me crazy.

Can I respond?

OC,

Futurestraders usually trade or bet on prices out a month or so in advance. The morning futures numbers are pretty much the same noise as they are to equities/inedex traders. I have about 20 commodity and index futures trades on right now. Most are February and March expirations. Actually, I do have 6 S&P strangles ( a futures options strategy) in Jan. "Wrong more than they are right", like equities, "you can be wrong, but don't be wrong long" (Ed Handley). In other words, take only small losses but let winners run and you can be wrong ALMOST as often as you are right.

 

[fedgolfer]

... Futures, can you share your knowledge on how to trade futures in the tech tools section? I'd like to learn more about it. Resources, tools, strategies, websites, reading? Anything that actually works for you in the real world... when you have time. Thanks.

 

[fedgolfer]

triple witching on Friday... any advice on how to play if you're already 100% in the stock funds?

 

[nnuut]

Anyone have any idea what the CPI is going to look like Friday?

 

[airlift]

Re: Market Talk / Dec. 10 - 16
triple witching on Friday... any advice on how to play if you're already 100% in the stock funds?

Graet question!

Re: Market Talk / Dec. 10 - 16
Anyone have any idea what the CPI is going to look like Friday?

I believe Birchtree opined yesterday that CPI should probably be lower. Birch, is this so? If so, is this due to lower oil prices by the time the Econ. surveys were done?