Market Talk / Dec. 10 - 16

[vectorman]

For those looking for the CPI report, it comes out tomorrow, friday. Today we get- import and export prices, also jobless claims @ 8:30est...

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

 

[weatherweenie]

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. The bulls appear ready to stand their ground at the start of trading as futures indications point to a flat open for the broader market and modest gains for the Nasdaq. The better than expected initial claims report, stronger than expected earnings results from Lehman Bros. (LEH) and Bear Stearns (BSC), and a batch of blue chip companies reaffirming their earnings guidance are lending support

 

[weatherweenie]

sp500 solidly through 1415 resistance. The early going makes it look like it'll stay above 1415.

 

[weatherweenie]

9:45AM Market View: Early gain leaves S&P 500 just under yesterday' peak at 1416.64-- session high 1416.12 (TECHX) 1416.16 +2.95 : The recent range top and multi-year high from last wk is at 1418.27. The next area of interest if follow through develops is at 1420. Intraday support is at 1414.60/1414.50 and roughly 1413.50.

SP500 is now at 1422.08.

 

[Birchtree]

Is it a solid break out or simply a tho over for the SPX? Look for a 15 point gain to lock in the new bears. And don't stand to close to the building.

 

[fedgolfer]

... the throw over is what has me scared because of all the elliott wave theory in the S&P. How far do throw overs usually extend after the 5th wave before the 6th, 7th and 8th corrective waves kick in. Not sure if there's Fibonacci levels done to estimate this? I will try and check if nobody has a quick answer. Or, am I over interpretting elliott wave and is today just a kick into a more volatile year ending?

 

[fedgolfer]

... i should add that Oct 11th to date has played exactly like the elliott wave theory... almost too perfect, which is why I'm not sure how long to stay in this throw over.

 

[Pilgrim]

What is a "throw over?"

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

... Futures, can you share your knowledge on how to trade futures in the tech tools section? I'd like to learn more about it. Resources, tools, strategies, websites, reading? Anything that actually works for you in the real world... when you have time. Thanks.

Hey Fed,

Using S&P 500 index for example, you need about $30k in an account to go long the 'large' S&P. The leverage is phenominal, hence the 'rush', . For every point the S&P 500 moves, you make/lose $250. S&P is at 1422 right now. Of course you would be trading December or March S&P which is a few points higher, usually, but can be daytraded just like a stock. So 1422 x $250 = $355,550 if it were a stock. But you only need, like I said about 30K in an account to cover the margin requirments.

 

[fedgolfer]

What is a "throw over?"

http://www.market-harmonics.com/elliott_wave1.htm

Triangles: Elliott described two distinct types of triangles: Diagonal and Horizontal. Diagonal triangles are part of ending sequences in a wave pattern, and therefore can occur within a wave 5 or a wave C. According to Elliott, diagonal triangles form when market action has moved "too far, too fast" and represent exhaustion of the trend. The 5th wave of the diagonal will frequently spike sharply above the upper trendline of the triangle in what Elliott called a "throw-over." A trader should be alert to a diagonal triangle formation, as it signals an impending and sharp trend reversal.

 

[fedgolfer]

Hey Fed,

Using S&P 500 index for example, you need about $30k in an account to go long the 'large' S&P. The leverage is phenominal, hence the 'rush', . For every point the S&P 500 moves, you make/lose $250. S&P is at 1422 right now. Of course you would be trading December or March S&P which is a few points higher, usually, but can be daytraded just like a stock. So 1422 x $250 = $355,550 if it were a stock. But you only need, like I said about 30K in an account to cover the margin requirments.

Thanks Futures, I'll look into it and will probably have some q's for you later. Much appreciated.

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX is currently at 9.78. And the A/D line is gaining. The MCO is an accelerometer - it actually measures the amount of energy (money) that is coming into or out of the marketplace. The NYSE breadth MCO will probably cross back over the zero line today. More figgy pudding.

 

[Griffin]

I jumped the gun by a day, but it is looking good so far and unless the CPI data is bearer of bad news, It may work out the way I guessed. I'm sticking it out for an extra day, to make up for the lag.

Two days - here's my prediction (guess....swag....whatever you want to call it)

- SPX closes 1418 tomorrow and bounces off 1426 Thursday to close at 1423.

- DWCP (I don't like DWCPF) closes at 636 tomorrow and bounces off 641 Thursday to close at 639.

I had to edit this to remove the thousand (obviously I did not expect it to jump a 1000 points in a day.)

 

[Birchtree]

Today looks like an impulse - but it doesn't feel like one, everything happened so quickly - what we need to get the adrenalin going is another 50 points on the current +82.

 

[weatherweenie]

Today looks like an impulse - but it doesn't feel like one, everything happened so quickly - what we need to get the adrenalin going is another 50 points on the current +82.

Interesting that the small caps are lagging a bit today.

 

[weatherweenie]

3:00 pm : We've seen a pop in the indices in the past half hour that has carried the Dow and S&P to new session highs. The cause for the burst of buying interest was unknown at first, but then talk surfaced that the Empire State Index, a regional manufacturing report, was released early (had been scheduled for tomorrow) and was stronger than expected. That talk proved to be accurate as the New York Fed ended up releasing the data, which showed a reading of 23.1 that was above the consensus estimate of 18.0. The stronger than expected report helped assuage some concerns about a slowdown in the manufacturing sector that were piqued with the national ISM Index slipping below 50.

 

[Griffin]

Interesting that the small caps are lagging a bit today.

The last time the DJIA stretched for a new record, we saw the S&P 500 slightly lag it, and the small caps have an even weaker response.

The S&P actually beat the DJIA on this one, the rest of the market will play catch up over the next day or so.

Last time, the DJIA went negative for the next couple of days, while the rest of the market surged. I expect tomorrow may be a very good day for the S-fund even if the S&P runs flat.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
December 14, 2006 Closing ​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Rainbows and socks!

Con-Yak...................................Lube near 2-week high!

Jester-Yak................................Here Goose!

Doodles:
TSP Socks leader........................I-fund
Last 12 months..........................up 28.20%

Socks [EFA] Closed at.................74.33 up +0.30.
Stops.......................................Alert: 73.63. Trail: 72.93
MACD hist.................................+0.112, increasing
Trend (P-SAR)............................positive.
Overbought/sold (RSI).................[70] 74.15 [30] increasing

$USD........................................83.68 up +0.35

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................62.51, up +1.14
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Tally (Allocation Avg.).......G=12, F=12, C=03, S=30, I=43
Leaders Play...............................Bullish: 75%...Bearish 25%.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Photos
December 14, 2006 Closing​

 

[nnuut]

The last time the DJIA stretched for a new record, we saw the S&P 500 slightly lag it, and the small caps have an even weaker response.

The S&P actually beat the DJIA on this one, the rest of the market will play catch up over the next day or so.

Last time, the DJIA went negative for the next couple of days, while the rest of the market surged. I expect tomorrow may be a very good day for the S-fund even if the S&P runs flat.

I sure hope so, I've been waiting for this for over a week. Everything pointed to the "S" as the place to be, but every time I thought the time was right something stopped it in its tracks. Along with the "C" and the "I" gaining daily. Three or four days Flat and one down day, I was about to give up!!