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Mapper's Account Talk
- Thread starter Mapper
- Start date
jpcavin
Well-known member
and
Gracias Amigo but I use toilet paper. :laugh:
Good to see a little gambling brings out the smiles.
Walking a fine line between stepping in front of the train or stepping onto it. Someone recently wrote the the end of the day is moved by the traders who know what's happening...hopefully they were right! The close wasn't as bad as it could have been and I'm staying long overnight. I'll leave it at that.
Walking a fine line between stepping in front of the train or stepping onto it. Someone recently wrote the the end of the day is moved by the traders who know what's happening...hopefully they were right! The close wasn't as bad as it could have been and I'm staying long overnight. I'll leave it at that.
Interesting, I didn't know. Is this common knowledge? I could see taking another little gamble on F. Wish my head was on straighter back when they were sub $5...in hindsight a moderate position at that price would have been a low risk play...sadly I was just finishing grad school, broke and in the scared camp.
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
The market train is levitating on... nothing...
This is different how?
I don't spend my time searching for a reason, I just try to digest the whole picture each day, hold my finger up and identify the prevailing wind direction. Here's my evaluation: I'd say we've been volatile (more or less range bound) because nothing dramatic has changed. I'm generally bullish because interest rates are abysmal, the housing market is scary and people gotta put their money somewhere. The "bad" news that drove selling last week wasn't really news either just a catalyst for a small move. This week the pressure is lifting and there is general exuberance in world markets, today I see global market exuberance as the ruling factor.
I'm happy to have sold off my long-term TZA position during the move last week. I fully expect we'll see moves down now and again but I do not YET believe it is the dominant trend. We moved to "bear" status because of the death cross that occurred during the debt ceiling debate and S&P downgrade. People freaked, because that's what people do. Programs set to sell when a freakout occurs exacerbate the situation. I think people are finally beginning to realize that the S&P downgrade was mostly meaningless AND the debt ceiling debate was an absurd sideshow that generated a lot of worthless hot air but doesn't really mean squat for the market. I'm currently bullish and happy to be cheering bullishness. That said...there will be a time when I change this TNA position for TZA...then I'll do it again, and again.....
I don't spend my time searching for a reason, I just try to digest the whole picture each day, hold my finger up and identify the prevailing wind direction. Here's my evaluation: I'd say we've been volatile (more or less range bound) because nothing dramatic has changed. I'm generally bullish because interest rates are abysmal, the housing market is scary and people gotta put their money somewhere. The "bad" news that drove selling last week wasn't really news either just a catalyst for a small move. This week the pressure is lifting and there is general exuberance in world markets, today I see global market exuberance as the ruling factor.
I'm happy to have sold off my long-term TZA position during the move last week. I fully expect we'll see moves down now and again but I do not YET believe it is the dominant trend. We moved to "bear" status because of the death cross that occurred during the debt ceiling debate and S&P downgrade. People freaked, because that's what people do. Programs set to sell when a freakout occurs exacerbate the situation. I think people are finally beginning to realize that the S&P downgrade was mostly meaningless AND the debt ceiling debate was an absurd sideshow that generated a lot of worthless hot air but doesn't really mean squat for the market. I'm currently bullish and happy to be cheering bullishness. That said...there will be a time when I change this TNA position for TZA...then I'll do it again, and again.....
. I think when the inflection point hits the markets will turn in formation.
This is different how?
I don't spend my time searching for a reason, I just try to digest the whole picture each day, hold my finger up and identify the prevailing wind direction. Here's my evaluation: I'd say we've been volatile (more or less range bound) because nothing dramatic has changed. I'm generally bullish because interest rates are abysmal, the housing market is scary and people gotta put their money somewhere. The "bad" news that drove selling last week wasn't really news either just a catalyst for a small move. This week the pressure is lifting and there is general exuberance in world markets, today I see global market exuberance as the ruling factor.
I'm happy to have sold off my long-term TZA position during the move last week. I fully expect we'll see moves down now and again but I do not YET believe it is the dominant trend. We moved to "bear" status because of the death cross that occurred during the debt ceiling debate and S&P downgrade. People freaked, because that's what people do. Programs set to sell when a freakout occurs exacerbate the situation. I think people are finally beginning to realize that the S&P downgrade was mostly meaningless AND the debt ceiling debate was an absurd sideshow that generated a lot of worthless hot air but doesn't really mean squat for the market. I'm currently bullish and happy to be cheering bullishness. That said...there will be a time when I change this TNA position for TZA...then I'll do it again, and again.....
I like your analysis
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Until we get some meaningful hiring and people start buying up home inventories general deflation is going to be damn tough to avoid. That means we need jobs in sectors other than home building :nuts: !!
Of course in a world economy utterly dependent of the price of oil certain commodity prices will remain victim to whims (inflationary or deflationary) of OPEC. I heard an interview with an OPEC player about 2 years ago who stated they would be attempting to keep oil in the neighborhood of $75/bbl for the foreseeable future..so far that has been, more or less, accurate.
Of course in a world economy utterly dependent of the price of oil certain commodity prices will remain victim to whims (inflationary or deflationary) of OPEC. I heard an interview with an OPEC player about 2 years ago who stated they would be attempting to keep oil in the neighborhood of $75/bbl for the foreseeable future..so far that has been, more or less, accurate.
Time for an update. I had an opportunity to sell last week but I tried to let it ride...down it went. Thankfully I moved my TSP back to G at a minimal profit. I remained in long ETFs, TNA.
So recently I decided to wade, or in the case of TSP jump, back in.
TSP
Moved to 50C 50S yesterday
ETF no moves yet but I think I'll pick up a little more TNA today in an effort to gain a little from the, hopefully coming soon, relief rally. Haven't completely decided yet as I will be out of town for 5-6 days over the holiday weekend...not in a good position to jump back out when appropriate. As I write this the price of TNA is rocketing up...hmmmm?
So recently I decided to wade, or in the case of TSP jump, back in.
TSP
Moved to 50C 50S yesterday
ETF no moves yet but I think I'll pick up a little more TNA today in an effort to gain a little from the, hopefully coming soon, relief rally. Haven't completely decided yet as I will be out of town for 5-6 days over the holiday weekend...not in a good position to jump back out when appropriate. As I write this the price of TNA is rocketing up...hmmmm?
Still holding long positions in all my accounts.
TSP is 50C 50S
ETFs I'm holding TNA
I missed a profit opportunity in ETFs on the last down/up wave but I timed those moves reasonably well in TSP and that's my larger account so I feel good. Took a vacation for a while and see that I'm back in black on my recent ETF and TSP trades.
Fear is in the air and many think it's time to sell. That may be a wise move but I'm going to hold tight a little longer. I'm very close to getting 100% back to even on my mid-summer blunders.
TSP is 50C 50S
ETFs I'm holding TNA
I missed a profit opportunity in ETFs on the last down/up wave but I timed those moves reasonably well in TSP and that's my larger account so I feel good. Took a vacation for a while and see that I'm back in black on my recent ETF and TSP trades.
Fear is in the air and many think it's time to sell. That may be a wise move but I'm going to hold tight a little longer. I'm very close to getting 100% back to even on my mid-summer blunders.
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Congrats, I'm not...
RMI hopefully that changes soon!!
The way I manage my accounts for the time being is tricky to keep track of, but here is the rough break down.
There are a number of ways I look at my self directed accounts. The VAST majority (~80%) of my holdings are kept, more or less, in a buy and hold manner. I say "more or less" because I moved about 50% of that money to $cash$ around about May (don't have my notes in front of me), so I missed some gain, but a lot of drop. Needless to say my buy and hold equities are down...I don't pay much attention to how much because there on a set-and-forget program. I play the ETF game with 20-25% of my self directed account. My "blunders" still have me down 15-20% for that particular ETF segment of my portfolio but only down about 4% of my overall self directed accounts.
What's really frustrating is that I've made some good moves and booked some significant gains since late July. If only I hadn't dropped the ball I would have some nice numbers for the year. I don't bother calculating what "could have been" but I still think about it from time to time.
My TSP returns have been abysmal. My PIP just 2-3 months ago was 20+%. The most recent (9/30) was 0.49%. Hey, at least it's positive and I "should" be able to beat the G fund for the year :laugh:
The way I manage my accounts for the time being is tricky to keep track of, but here is the rough break down.
There are a number of ways I look at my self directed accounts. The VAST majority (~80%) of my holdings are kept, more or less, in a buy and hold manner. I say "more or less" because I moved about 50% of that money to $cash$ around about May (don't have my notes in front of me), so I missed some gain, but a lot of drop. Needless to say my buy and hold equities are down...I don't pay much attention to how much because there on a set-and-forget program. I play the ETF game with 20-25% of my self directed account. My "blunders" still have me down 15-20% for that particular ETF segment of my portfolio but only down about 4% of my overall self directed accounts.
What's really frustrating is that I've made some good moves and booked some significant gains since late July. If only I hadn't dropped the ball I would have some nice numbers for the year. I don't bother calculating what "could have been" but I still think about it from time to time.
My TSP returns have been abysmal. My PIP just 2-3 months ago was 20+%. The most recent (9/30) was 0.49%. Hey, at least it's positive and I "should" be able to beat the G fund for the year :laugh:
Congrats, I'm not...
