Mapper's Account Talk

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Haven't quite met the 2nd circumstance yet but I've seen what I need to see. Conceding and going long in a big (for me) way.

ETFs
Sold my TZA @ $23.62 for a loss of $1.60/share.
Bought and equivalent of TNA @ $49.95.

TSP
Went from 50G 50F to 100% S COB today.

Playing the trend as it seems pretty inflappable.
 
I did and it was light/tapering, but volatility was dropping dramatically too. I don't usually spend too much time on those because you can't really pretend to tease out a traders intention...at least I can't anyway. I look at price movements.

What I needed to see was a solid floor around 1285 and that's exactly what we got. I also saw the US indices turning from red to green left and right.

That comment was based what I have been seeing in the charts, namely jumps or slight/slow moves up followed by largely sideways action. This sideways action is bringing the trading channels up and bringing in new floors from which we continue a slow climb up. I haven't been at this long but I'd say this looks like the proverbial "wall of worry". That said, I like the longer term moving averages 50+, especially the 100...and I think we can climb this wall quite a bit longer. I'm hoping I can keep my TSP in equities for quite a while and play the speedbumps with my ETFs.

I don't deny that I could be very wrong...but that's what I played on and it feels good to be out of my bear suit!
 
Mapper said:
I did and it was light/tapering, but volatility was dropping dramatically too. I don't usually spend too much time on those because you can't really pretend to tease out a traders intention...at least I can't anyway. I look at price movements.

What I needed to see was a solid floor around 1285 and that's exactly what we got. I also saw the US indices turning from red to green left and right.

That comment was based what I have been seeing in the charts, namely jumps or slight/slow moves up followed by largely sideways action. This sideways action is bringing the trading channels up and bringing in new floors from which we continue a slow climb up. I haven't been at this long but I'd say this looks like the proverbial "wall of worry". That said, I like the longer term moving averages 50+, especially the 100...and I think we can climb this wall quite a bit longer. I'm hoping I can keep my TSP in equities for quite a while and play the speedbumps with my ETFs.

I don't deny that I could be very wrong...but that's what I played on and it feels good to be out of my bear suit!
Click to expand...

My only concern in bringing this up is that what you said is exactly what the big money folks (institutional traders) want you to think. They are holding back, hence the volume is low, and once they feel they have gotten enough of the Mom & Pop traders and CNBC watchers into the market before they take it down... just a contrarian thought.
 
I hear you on that front and a lot of folks sharing the same concern. That's why I needed to see a solid floor today. Big traders had ample opportunity to sink this ship early this morning...and they didn't.

So if the stated theory is correct, then I figure those those big traders must want more folks in and the only way to do that is to keep edging things higher. Maybe mom & pop aren't streaming in and the low volume we see is all about the big guys and their lure?

Therefore my current gamble is that something (maybe the above theory) is keeping this sucker floating, I simply call it momentum. But honestly I don't care what is, I was on the wrong side of it and that's all that really mattered. Hopefully now I can get some play on bullish side!
 
Mapper said:
That's why I needed to see a solid floor today.
Click to expand...

Honestly this was the biggest thing for me. We didn't just stabilize, we hit and bounced right back up at the same time volatility fell off a cliff. I got a much stronger floor than I was looking for which is why I decided to enter even before we got to my target of ~1295.
 
Can we say exuberance! My honest opinion is there is still room to run.

Played conservative, sold my long ETFs to book some gains. Haven't made up my mind about whether I want to re enter on the long or short side yet. Strong arguments for either side.

TSP is still in 100S. TSP is less volatile than the leveraged ETFs so I will take my chance on losing a little in the future to keep riding this bull.
 
Been a busy day but wanted to update.

I've determined that selling my longs yesterday was a mistake. I see a lot of strength and I'm not afraid to chase. I lost a little profit along the way but I re-entered long positions (ETF) this morning.

TSP remains 100S.

On my last entry I had considered taking a large bite in the I fund but got cold feet. Kudos to those few who had the courage!
 
I'm young and able to tolerate risk in my portfolio. Therefore I'm keeping long and riding the wall of worry.

ETFs long in TNA

TSP 100S contributions also DCAing into equities.

Let the bull run!
 
Even though I have previously discussed my frustration with split positions (going both long and short) I'm giving strong consideration to slow DCAing into TZA, likely buying at key resistance levels (i.e. S&P 1320). I'm currently long and think we could ride be riding a bull wave for a while (days/weeks) so I don't want to sell my TNA positions "too early" like I did last week and near the end of last year. I had to repurchase and miss out on some decent gains. That said the further we go up the harder the impending fall. Obviously timing the exact top will be tough.

Currently at close to $20/share TZA is beginning to look like a really cheap hedge against missing that top and having a good cost basis when we head back down. As the cost continues to drop the sheer number of shares I can accumulate will give me a nice profit when we get our correction.

I have come to realize that despite the frustration of not knowing which way I "want" the market to go when I have split positions...I actually made better financial progress than I am making now.

Currently holding 100S and TNA in my "swing" accounts.
 
Held off to see if 1315-1320 would turn from resistance to support...will likely implement the plan as we, hopefully :blink:, approach 1330-1335
 
TSP
Moved to 70G 30S today. I've made 3.5% this month in my TSP. Given the strong resistance we're up against I'm going call that pretty good and pull the majority to the sidelines. Keeping a little "skin in the game" because I think we are apt to continue higher. If we do I'll put the rest back in when we solidify a high base OR drop to solid support.

ETFs staying long.
 
Glad to see we agree on the future. I think we will see some healthy consolidation but by no means will we crash. Looking to refresh my IFTs in Feb and move into the S Fund if we can get a nice support level. Best of luck! :)
 
SPN46 Thanks for the visit! I missed it as it's usually pretty quiet in here.

Posting to say that I'm a TZA buyer if it drops below $20, I'm planning this as a DCA entry. Whether or not I exit TNA at, or even before, that point is whole other story.
 
ETFs
Pulled the trigger and exchanged TNA for TZA (40% size because my confidence on this is low). I wouldn't be surprised to seem a little more upside action but I made 8.2% on this TNA trade so I wanted to book that profit and let the 1325-1330 tug-o-war zone play itself out a little.

TSP
Nothing new. Maintaining a 30S 70G position and putting my contributions 100 in equities every pay period.
 
Mapper said:
ETFsPulled the trigger and exchanged TNA for TZA (40% size because my confidence on this is low). I wouldn't be surprised to seem a little more upside action but I made 8.2% on this TNA trade so I wanted to book that profit and let the 1325-1330 tug-o-war zone play itself out a little.TSPNothing new. Maintaining a 30S 70G position and putting my contributions 100 in equities every pay period.
Click to expand...
Wow, you're brave. I just sold some TNA for a nice profit, but holding it in cash for now. I'm not betting on the downside... yet. Still holding 100% S in the TSP.Good luck Mapper!
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Wow, you're brave. I just sold some TNA for a nice profit, but holding it in cash for now. I'm not betting on the downside... yet. Still holding 100% S in the TSP.Good luck Mapper!
Click to expand...

Thanks... but it's not as brave as you might think. It's not so much a "position" as a start of DCAing into a small TZA hedge "position" thinking we'll get a bigger correction sometime soon (coming months). When I say "40%", I need to clarify that I mean 40% of the TNA position size I just closed...which makes it something like 2-2.5% of my overall portfolio. I trade TNA/TZA with my "play money" the leveraged ETFs are too volatile for me to risk large positions.

At this point I'm mostly a buy and hold investor (dividend paying stocks). I'm not afraid to move my positions to cash if I see something big, drastic and scary on the horizon; but that's much different from taking a a small short position here and there.

I'm still a noob here and trying to learn by experience. Without risking my whole savings!!
 
Likely making a larger entry to equities today. I stepped aside at what I deemed a "safe" place and potential turnaround zone. The dips keep getting bought and the market keeps moving up. I don't see a strong compelling reason to keep so much of my account in cash.

TSP
Planning to go from 30%S 70%G to btw 70% and 100%S

ETFs
Likely exiting my small TZA position at a loss and making an entry to TNA.

Still deciding on how bold I want to be but definitely will be conceding more $ to the bullish side.
 
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