Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

[Soupguy]

What connection am I not making?
F went from 15.90 to 16.00, a 10 cent gain.

C went from 19.15 to 19.21, only a 6 cent gain.

The F gain a larger % because its a smaller # also.... am I an idiot?

We are basing it on the greatest percentage return over the past month, not the greatest monetary gain on the last day. C Fund was 1.36% gain in February. F Fund was only .51% gain.

 

[mrtrojanap7]

I've read through this thread a few times. And I can't seem to find the answer to this question... What do we do with our payroll deducted contributions? I just had it all going into G for the past year, should I be having it go to the fund for the month? Thanks!

 

[James48843]

I've read through this thread a few times. And I can't seem to find the answer to this question... What do we do with our payroll deducted contributions? I just had it all going into G for the past year, should I be having it go to the fund for the month? Thanks!

You should have it go whereever YOU feel is best. We can't advise anyone where to put their money, because none of us are licensed financial planners or licensed financial advisors. What you do with your money is totally up to you.

(*I know that personally, I have MY money going into the same place where my balance sets- but hey, that's just me.)

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Share prices are posted. Looks like we have a change. End of the month, and the Senate vote killed the market in the last half-hour, so we run into the sequester season by moving our assets to "C".

"Last-month-best-fund) Changes (IFTs) to "C" before noon tomorrow, effective COB tomorrow.
View attachment 22657

Good luck. I think we're going to need it moving forward!

Thanks for the update, James. Will definitely be interesting to see how March plays out.

For those of you who follow this system, keep the long term picture in mind. The long term track record of this system is much better than buy and hold, even if it has a down month. (Not saying it will have a down month).

Good luck!

 

[mrtrojanap7]

You should have it go whereever YOU feel is best. We can't advise anyone where to put their money, because none of us are licensed financial planners or licensed financial advisors. What you do with your money is totally up to you.

(*I know that personally, I have MY money going into the same place where my balance sets- but hey, that's just me.)

Thanks James, I gotcha. I know this forum is best served as a guide and not as gospel. I appreciate the advice!

 

[ravensfan]

Ok, I did the research and am convinced this is a sound investment strategy. So this morning I moved 100% into the C Fund. I realize there will be risk and some months I will lose money, but hey any strategy is better than the 1.96% I earned in 2012.

 

[wavecoder]

Ok, I did the research and am convinced this is a sound investment strategy. So this morning I moved 100% into the C Fund. I realize there will be risk and some months I will lose money, but hey any strategy is better than the 1.96% I earned in 2012.

through backtesting, it's been a strong one that survived many market crashes, averaged 11.5% in the last 10 years. Even had some nice gains in years where the C/S/I funds finished negative for the year. I'd say it's a winner if you're investing for the long term

 

[okayDrain]

Hey guys, I used to follow LMBF religiously while I was on Active duty, and when I got out at the end of 2011, I just gave up on keeping up with it (bad, I know). Anyways I was more than pleasantly surprised when I logged on for the first time tonight to find that I left 100% of my contribution in the S fund and my PIP reflects I've had a return rate of 14.42% in the last 12 months. I have to imagine this is beginners luck, but I don't want to just leave it alone and hope my luck continues. Like I mentioned I separated form the military in November of 2011, and I thought I'd be signing on tonight simply to begin the process of moving my money to my Roth IRA I have setup with USAA. Now I'm wondering if I should just keep my money in the TSP and continue strategizing and moving my funds in an attempt to maximize my profits here. Any advice as to whether I should move my funds to my Roth IRA or continue strategizing here? Thanks in advance! (P.S. - I'm 25 and there may be a chance I return to the reserves by the end of the year)

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Re: Staying in the Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy or moving to IRA

Hey guys, I used to follow LMBF religiously while I was on Active duty, and when I got out at the end of 2011, I just gave up on keeping up with it (bad, I know). Anyways I was more than pleasantly surprised when I logged on for the first time tonight to find that I left 100% of my contribution in the S fund and my PIP reflects I've had a return rate of 14.42% in the last 12 months. I have to imagine this is beginners luck, but I don't want to just leave it alone and hope my luck continues. Like I mentioned I separated form the military in November of 2011, and I thought I'd be signing on tonight simply to begin the process of moving my money to my Roth IRA I have setup with USAA. Now I'm wondering if I should just keep my money in the TSP and continue strategizing and moving my funds in an attempt to maximize my profits here. Any advice as to whether I should move my funds to my Roth IRA or continue strategizing here? Thanks in advance! (P.S. - I'm 25 and there may be a chance I return to the reserves by the end of the year)

No doubt about it! STAY IN TSP!! Definitely more fun here!

And if FTRIB ever gets around to it, you will be able to transfer traditional to roth TSP!

 

[bmneveu]

Hey guys, I used to follow LMBF religiously while I was on Active duty, and when I got out at the end of 2011, I just gave up on keeping up with it (bad, I know). Anyways I was more than pleasantly surprised when I logged on for the first time tonight to find that I left 100% of my contribution in the S fund and my PIP reflects I've had a return rate of 14.42% in the last 12 months. I have to imagine this is beginners luck, but I don't want to just leave it alone and hope my luck continues. Like I mentioned I separated form the military in November of 2011, and I thought I'd be signing on tonight simply to begin the process of moving my money to my Roth IRA I have setup with USAA. Now I'm wondering if I should just keep my money in the TSP and continue strategizing and moving my funds in an attempt to maximize my profits here. Any advice as to whether I should move my funds to my Roth IRA or continue strategizing here? Thanks in advance! (P.S. - I'm 25 and there may be a chance I return to the reserves by the end of the year)

I would say hold off until you know for sure if you're gonna do reserves or not. If you do, you'll be able to contribute again if you want.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

I would say hold off until you know for sure if you're gonna do reserves or not. If you do, you'll be able to contribute again if you want.

Stay invested in something, and keep adding what you can. TSP is good when you have matching or can contribute more than the 5000 or so annual limit on an IRA. Personally, for my son who is in the Army we opted for a Roth IRA outside TSP. He has more trading options and the ETF fees are so low now the cost is not much more than what TSP charges.

 

[matrix452]

Hey guys, I used to follow LMBF religiously while I was on Active duty, and when I got out at the end of 2011, I just gave up on keeping up with it (bad, I know). Anyways I was more than pleasantly surprised when I logged on for the first time tonight to find that I left 100% of my contribution in the S fund and my PIP reflects I've had a return rate of 14.42% in the last 12 months. I have to imagine this is beginners luck, but I don't want to just leave it alone and hope my luck continues. Like I mentioned I separated form the military in November of 2011, and I thought I'd be signing on tonight simply to begin the process of moving my money to my Roth IRA I have setup with USAA. Now I'm wondering if I should just keep my money in the TSP and continue strategizing and moving my funds in an attempt to maximize my profits here. Any advice as to whether I should move my funds to my Roth IRA or continue strategizing here? Thanks in advance! (P.S. - I'm 25 and there may be a chance I return to the reserves by the end of the year)

If it were me, I would stay with the TSP. Since the ROTH TSP is new and you have not done anything since it began I assume you have your funds in the traditional TSP account. If you move it to a ROTH IRA you will be taxed on that money before it goes into the ROTH account. You can roll it over to a traditional IRA without consequences but I like this system: it’s easy, it’s logical, it has provided me with a return I'm happy with that I have been hard pressed to match elsewhere.

A Clairification: If you made tax-exempt contributions, only your earnings (i.e. gain) would be taxed.

 

[James48843]

Back on topic please-

FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH- "S" fund had the greatest return. Nice.



Now, we moved last month over to "C" because of the end -of-month data told us too. We didn't get the top return as a result, but we DID do pretty darn good. As we are only up to the end of March, having a 8.90% return year-to-date is still pretty dog-gone good in my book. I'll take it.

As "S" was the victor in March- that is where we move to now. Moving to 's' and heading into the weekend. Since the markets are closed till Monday, you all have until Noon on Monday to make the move, if you so choose.

Good luck!

 

[James48843]

OK folks- the "Last Month's Best Fund" method scored a positive for the month of Apriil, but JUST BARELY- at a postive 0.65% for April. We now are sitting, officially, with a 10.28% return on the year to date, according to the autotracker. (*Not bad, is it?)


But last month the "I" fund took off and finished with a greater than 5% gain for the month. Technically, we now move to "I" fund as we chase the gains- although my guyt tells me it is just as unlikely that "I" will be able to outperform 2 months in a row- well, the technical - mechanical- mathmatical method says move- so here we go.

Moving to "I" fund today.


Year to date return thus far for the LAST MONTH BEST FUND method- is 10.28%.



Let us not forget all the usual disclaimers:

Remember- your mileage may vary.
Past performance is no indicator of future results.
Not valid where prohibited by law,

and ...the old standby....

"Except in Nebraksa". http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/OfferVoidInNebraska

You do what YOU think is right- not what anyone else is doing.

Good luck out there.

And be careful.

 

[James48843]

Zoinks- Got hit that time. Oh well. Last month it turned out that "S" was the best, with a gain of 2.71%.

Soooo.... we move to "S" before noon on Monday.

Good luck.

 

[James48843]

Nasty- we got zoinked two months in a row.

Oh well.

Last Month Best Fund method moves to safety as of tomorrow-
Moving to "G" prior to the noon deadline.

Hang on tight, things could get rough ahead.

Looks like "G" is the only safe place to be.

 

[rcknfrewld]

l love your lmbf...i knew it back when it was miscalled something else...lfbm...something like that...... any data on equities when the system moves to G...does G outperform others next few months...and so on...

 

[James48843]

Well, the month of July turned out to be a good one for stocks.

The Last Month's Best Fund sat in "G", but the market did well, and "S" turned out to be the best bet, with a return of 6.88%.





So....we execute a trade today, moving from the safety of "G', into the risk of "S" fund, and cross our fingers.

LMBF Method MOVING TO "S" before the noon deadline today.

Good luck.

 

[sstasel]

Noon EST is the deadline for the TSP folks to make the change on the COB of the same day. The 4 hr time lag is a killer and I hate it. But, if you miss the deadline you have to wait until COB of the next day...up to a full 28 hr lag between hitting the button and having your IFT executed

COB = Change of Business (in case you were wondering what this was)

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

COB = Change of Business (in case you were wondering what this was)

cough cough

Close of Business