justbizness45's Account Talk

[justbizness45]

Some of the worst news of the year and the markets go up.:suspicious: The way things started out this morning and hitting 818 before noon it looked like we could get to 760 - 780 by 4pm. I definately wasn't expecting a 70 pt rally, on what? Well I am now 40G/20C/20S/20I and in at 876. I sold at 857, not one of my best moves. Expect consolidation on Monday and maybe the rally can continue after that.

 

[Birchtree]

The market is omnipotent and sometimes one just has to take the risk and go with the flow. The reasons for a strong bull move will be revealed later - but I suspect the economy will prove stronger than consensus opinion and after the first of the year we start looking toward recovery. I think waste to energy would be more productive - Obama could build more of these plants versus ethanol.

 

[justbizness45]

I sold half my exposure to stocks on today's rally. I'm currently 70G/15C/15S. I am holding to see if we can go a little higher. There are so many people telling the herd to buy that I think this rally may go for another day or two. The real test is S&P 940-950. So we will see what happens. With the hedge funds out of the picture for the rest of the year, assuming the rumor is true, then the euphoric herd may run things up a bit more for Santa. Good luck to all

 

[justbizness45]

Currently +1.50% for the month and trying to build a little.

Today's action stayed above S&P 880 and didn't fill the gap from Friday's close and Monday's open. If 880 gets broke I will sell and be done for the month except for leaving enough to continue the <1% experiment. My pay contribution will go into C on Thurs. Anything above 930 is also a sell for the profits up to the upper BB. I'm really trying to be more patient with this market but I think deep down inside it is going to drop at least 1 more time to less than 750 and some think down to 600 or less. :worried:

Good luck tomorrow!!

 

[justbizness45]

Futures are green. We will se how it is playing out at 1100. There is still a strong possiblility of buy the rumor and sell the news for this auto bailout deal. Good trading.

 

[justbizness45]

I did an IFT yesterday and captured a few more gains. I am now 84G/8C/8S. I think I am going to hang here for a few days. There really is no reason for the market to be going up IMO. Other that bailoutphoria and Barakophoria. :suspicious:

 

[justbizness45]

I got out today. I'm done for the year. Today should have been a capitulation type down day. 50B fraud, failed bailout, terrible earnings data, it just doesn't make sense so I am out and on the lilly pad.

I am 99G/1C to allow a little experimentation.

 

[justbizness45]

My last IFT was 99%G and 1%C. This morning I was at 98.97G and 1.03C. I did a <1% IFT to 2%C and 98%G. I am going to do <1% IFTs for the rest of the month and track share accumulation. I won't be logging any of these in the tracker as it confuses people. This was my 3rd IFT this month. I will publish results at the end of the month and hopefully give SB and Lady some more data.

 

[Guest2]

My last IFT was 99%G and 1%C. This morning I was at 98.97G and 1.03C. I did a <1% IFT to 2%C and 98%G. I am going to do <1% IFTs for the rest of the month and track share accumulation. I won't be logging any of these in the tracker as it confuses people. This was my 3rd IFT this month. I will publish results at the end of the month and hopefully give SB and Lady some more data.

Looking forward to hearing your findings.

 

[KevinD]

I am going to do <1% IFTs for the rest of the month and track share accumulation. I won't be logging any of these in the tracker as it confuses people. This was my 3rd IFT this month. I will publish results at the end of the month and hopefully give SB and Lady some more data.

And, if you post how many shares you accumulate, you'll be broadcasting your balance to the world...but thats up to you. :worried:

 

[justbizness45]

SB, thanks for stopping by. Kevin, thanks for the concern. I am planning on posting the results based on $10,000 starting balance vice my own balance. What I really want to prove/disprove is the viability of this method in a bull market after you have made your plays and want to DCA the rest of the month following the uptend.

 

[XL-entLady]

SB, thanks for stopping by. Kevin, thanks for the concern. I am planning on posting the results based on $10,000 starting balance vice my own balance. What I really want to prove/disprove is the viability of this method in a bull market after you have made your plays and want to DCA the rest of the month following the uptend.

And I look forward to the information you'll be posting. Thanks for sharing with us! That will be a great help in gathering data on SB's patented system!

Lady

 

[Guest2]

Let me be the first to say that I would NOT use the <1%IFT in a verified
Full Fledged Bull Market. By definition, if there are more up days then down,
a Buy & Hold strategy would make more sense (cents) to me, considering our
2 IFT Limits. In fact, I'm struggling with a few realities within this Bear
Market.

Consider the following, say its a down day Monday and I expect Tuesday
will be a down day. Is it best to;
#1- Do a <1%IFT on Monday to gain more share cheaper.
#2- Hold off on a <1%IFT on Monday to have less in the funds for yet another
down day on Tuesday.

There's another scenario to the Upside scenario as well.
#1- Do a <1%IFT and lock in gains made on Monday.
#2- Hold off on a <1%IFT to allow the percentages to jump enough to
justify a "Bump Up" to the next highest % (ie....3.02% ----> 4.00%).

This method currently has no steadfast rules to follow. Its easy enough to
say we're buying more shares cheaper on a down day, or locking in gain on
the way up. But this little gem needs more guidence or rules to live by.
I certainly welcome all information you come up with, both good & bad.

The fact that we can do more with our TSP then the FRTIB will ever tell you
brings me a great deal of pleasure. But to find out that it could make us a few
more bucks (with limits) is a triumph that we all strive for.

 

[justbizness45]

Let me be the first to say that I would NOT use the <1%IFT in a verified
Full Fledged Bull Market. By definition, if there are more up days then down,
a Buy & Hold strategy would make more sense (cents) to me, considering our
2 IFT Limits. In fact, I'm struggling with a few realities within this Bear
Market.
True, I was hoping to look at it from the perspective of if you were stuck not fully invested because you were out of IFTs, would it be of measurable benefit.
Consider the following, say its a down day Monday and I expect Tuesday
will be a down day. Is it best to;
#1- Do a <1%IFT on Monday to gain more share cheaper.
#2- Hold off on a <1%IFT on Monday to have less in the funds for yet another
down day on Tuesday.
I have to do the calcs but if you think the market will go down 2 days in a row and want to DCA more shares I would do the <1% one day one say from 3.04% to 4%. The next day do another 4% to buy more shares when the account balances (as the price goes down you accumulate more shares to maintain 4%).

There's another scenario to the Upside scenario as well.
#1- Do a <1%IFT and lock in gains made on Monday.
I can't think of a scenario that makes this beneficial, although depending on your balance percentages invested you could lock in more gains than sitting in G. I'll look at it.

#2- Hold off on a <1%IFT to allow the percentages to jump enough to
justify a "Bump Up" to the next highest % (ie....3.02% ----> 4.00%).

I've been doing this I just haven't calculated the real benefit yet, if any.

This method currently has no steadfast rules to follow. Its easy enough to
say we're buying more shares cheaper on a down day, or locking in gain on
the way up. But this little gem needs more guidence or rules to live by.
I certainly welcome all information you come up with, both good & bad.

The fact that we can do more with our TSP then the FRTIB will ever tell you
brings me a great deal of pleasure. But to find out that it could make us a few
more bucks (with limits) is a triumph that we all strive for.

The thing I am trying to determine is if it is worth the time and effort over a period of time if you are following a trend up or down and have no IFTs left. I think what I will find is it is of little or no benefit unless you are working it over a period of more than a few days and you need to have a goal or strategy in mind based on where you think the market it going. I will try to run some senario's using historical data with goals in mind before the first of the year. My office curtails operations from 12/24 through 1/5 so I will have some time to play then.

Right now I think the market is going to trend up to the end of the year and I am out of IFTs. So every day the market is up I am going to DCA <1% up to the next percentage. Down days I am holding. I will sell at the end of the month and calculate my gains, if any. I'm having fun with this.....

 

[justbizness45]

Yesterdays $.02 per share increase in C wasn't enough to to give a .01% increase in my allocation C versus the normal G daily increase. My TSP account lists me at 98.00%G and and 2.00%C so I am going to have to stand pat for Monday unless it looks like a big down day and then I will put in an IFT for a rebalance to the values above.

 

[justbizness45]

It almost seems like Japan is trying to follow the Paulson/Bernake model. Doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. But may be good for the dollar....

"As a result, Japan will see its primary budget deficit jump to more than 13 trillion yen ($145.6) from 5 trillion yen ($56 billion) this year, and will boost bond issuances by 31.3 percent to cover the revenue shortfall.

The expansion is likely to derail Tokyo's efforts to slim down toward its goal of balancing the budget by 2011. But Prime Minister Taro Aso, facing plummeting popularity ratings, has made it clear that this is no time for fiscal discipline. On Friday the central bank cut its key interest rate to 0.1 percent, joining the U.S. Federal Reserve in pushing borrowing costs close to zero. And in its gloomiest assessment this year, the Bank of Japan cited the harsh impact of tumbling exports, weakening domestic demand, job losses and growing credit crunch."

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081220/as_japan_budget.html

 

[justbizness45]

Now foriegn governments are bailing out the big three. Canada must be really worried about the effect there if they go down.

"The federal and Ontario governments have announced a 4 billion Canadian dollars ($3.29 billion) bailout package for the Canadian subsidiaries of the Detroit Three automakers."

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081220/meltdown_autos_canada.html

 

[Guest2]

Yesterdays $.02 per share increase in C wasn't enough to to give a .01% increase in my allocation C versus the normal G daily increase. My TSP account lists me at 98.00%G and and 2.00%C so I am going to have to stand pat for Monday unless it looks like a big down day and then I will put in an IFT for a rebalance to the values above.

So 1%(C) with a 0.0257 tsp cent gain wasn't enough to add a .01% gain
to the (C) Fund. I'm glad you mentioned that because it reminds me that
the percentages allocated are considered "overall" percentages. In other
words, the (G) Fund gain percentage of .01% offset the (C) Fund. So the
starting level of 1% being allocated in the (C) Fund alone would require a
.00785% gain (or greater) on Tuesdays thru Fridays. Because of the larger
(G) gain on Mondays, a .022782% gain (or greater) would be required.

So, by allocating 2% in any given fund would cut the requirement in half.
Further, you CAN'T change the requirements by simply adding 1% to any
other fund. ie.... (96-1-1-1-1). If your looking for the ability to bump up
any of the 1% allocated funds, what ever fund beats the requirements
would be eligable for a <1%IFT bump up on the next day. But you must
realize that any fund that was subject to loses would be required to be
changed as well. Either rounded up to its original % or lowered. This will
also play a part in your decision making when comparing your results in
each of your individual funds.

For me, I eliminate the (F) Fund all together when I reach my desired
<1%IFT levels (as seen in the autotracker). This may or may not be a
mistake, but it complicates the whole situation. I also make it easy on
myself by figuring out my comfort level concerning risk and dividing that
amount by three. ie..... Risk Tolerance = $12000.00 / 3 = $4000.00
So, If my current balance was $100,000 my starting level goal would be
a modifiable 88%(G) 0%(F) 4%(C) 4%(S) 4%(I) and subject to change
based on unforseen circumstances (either up or down).

There was so much good information included in this post, I'm gonna copy
it to my thread as well. Like I said at the start, I'm glad you mentioned
the lack of % change within your account. It might help some of our friends
out in their investigative efforts concerning the potential <1%IFT benefits.

 

[Guest2]

Yesterdays $.02 per share increase in C wasn't enough to to give a .01% increase in my allocation C versus the normal G daily increase. My TSP account lists me at 98.00%G and and 2.00%C so I am going to have to stand pat for Monday unless it looks like a big down day and then I will put in an IFT for a rebalance to the values above.

One last thing, As I noted in the Novel Below (LoL) I found that the Auto
Tracker holds you at 99(G) 1(C),,,,,, but you said its listed in the TSP as
98(G) 2(C),,,,,and I was wondering if you knew of this (or just a type-o).
In either case, I believe the below information holds true. FYI.

 

[justbizness45]

One last thing, As I noted in the Novel Below (LoL) I found that the Auto
Tracker holds you at 99(G) 1(C),,,,,, but you said its listed in the TSP as
98(G) 2(C),,,,,and I was wondering if you knew of this (or just a type-o).
In either case, I believe the below information holds true. FYI.

For the time being I haven't been listing my <1% IFTs in the tracker. It seem to confuse people. If I forsee a real concrete gain and strategy then I will probably start posting them.