justbizness45's Account Talk

[justbizness45]

Still 99G/1C. I am just about done running senarios with SB's <1% IFT strategy. I will post it when I am done. SAR training tomorrow, but I hope to work on it Sunday and have it done by Monday.

 

[justbizness45]

I had a very nice experience with a contractor today I wanted to share.

I installed a pellet stove in my home using the owners manual. I didn't have faith enough in myself to just have the building inspector come inspect it. That was mostly due the the fact my county makes up code requirements above what is standard all the time. So I called a local pellet stove contractor and hired him to validate the install. I really expected and probably deserved getting gigged on price due to not having him do it in the first place but he turned out to be a very straight shooter.
He changed a few things that were within code but his pet peeves, crawled under the house and inspected the ground wire connection and spent 2 hrs with his helper going over the system including making sure I knew how to operate it, clean it and he even adjusted the auger rate.

Most contractors/plumbers/HVAC guys charge $150-200 for a service call and then charge the heck out of you for anything over 1 hr. I was expecting a $350-400 bill.

Well this guy came in and gave me a bill for $200, signed the building permit as the installing contractor and told me have the building inspector call him if he has any questions on the install.

I just wanted to share that there are still alot of good people out there trying to make a fair buck without being a crook. Hope you all have a great week next week.

 

[alevin]

I had a very nice experience with a contractor today I wanted to share.


I just wanted to share that there are still alot of good people out there trying to make a fair buck without being a crook. Hope you all have a great week next week.

Great story JB, I've had similar experiences tho not quite to that level. That was really a nice read. thanks!

 

[Warrenlm]

Over in another thread you posted:

As will be their bank accounts, if the dollar goes the way of the peso then gold and silver (real not paper) will be the currency for puchasing in the good old USA. I don't think that will happen, but I have hedged a little in that direction and have an emergency supply stashed for an economic crisis.

Would you mind sharing the current value order of magnitude you're stashing/accummulating in actual metal as a stash? Thousands of dollars? Tens of thousands? Thanks.

 

[justbizness45]

Over in another thread you posted:


Would you mind sharing the current value order of magnitude you're stashing/accummulating in actual metal as a stash? Thousands of dollars? Tens of thousands? Thanks.

Good question, I hadn't thought of total magnitude. Right now I've been buying what I can afford. Silver and smaller pieces of gold. I think I want to get at least 3 months pay at current values in reserve.

 

[justbizness45]

I'm still holding G. Toying with buying a little F, maybe 30-40%. I am not convinced there will be a Obama Rally. I am still hurting from the "bailout rally" that never developed in Oct. Several of the more knowledgable members of this MB are being cautious and I am not feeling a warm fuzzy about this week either.

 

[justbizness45]

I'm still holding G. Toying with buying a little F, maybe 30-40%. I am not convinced there will be a Obama Rally. I am still hurting from the "bailout rally" that never developed in Oct. Several of the more knowledgable members of this MB are being cautious and I am not feeling a warm fuzzy about this week either.

65G/35F COB Today. If the market is going to spiral downward then people will be in bonds. Following bear market rules. We will see what happens. Trying to beat G.

 

[Steadygain]

65G/35F COB Today. If the market is going to spiral downward then people will be in bonds. Following bear market rules. We will see what happens. Trying to beat G.

Best of luck ! That's probably better than my plan - am hoping for a 'super crash' followed by a bounce. Plan to dive in and get out.

 

[justbizness45]

Best of luck ! That's probably better than my plan - am hoping for a 'super crash' followed by a bounce. Plan to dive in and get out.

I retained some powder just in case that happens, but it could as easily take a couple of weeks to get there so I am hedging my bet. I got hammered so hard last year that I am changing my strategies and trying to show some patience.

 

[justbizness45]

Tech Ticker on Bernake's speech today. They are starting to sound like they have been listening to Denniger. Maybe there is hope for the media yet.


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[justbizness45]

At least they are going after a couple of crooks:

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE50C7QG20090113

http://www.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/01/13/missing.pilot.profile/index.html

I guess they don't have 50B to keep them out of jail.:suspicious:

 

[justbizness45]

With the market crashing so hard today I went 50C/50S. My move to F yesterday made me a little green (more than G) today. I am a whopping +.10 for the month. Movin up the tracker now.....:laugh:

I was hoping it would be Friday before we got this low but the retail sales data was bad. There may be a little more downside but I am hopeful for a little sideways/dead cat trading tomorrow and Friday. Omni's Ocsar was calling for S&P 830 by Friday in yesterday's video. Today's low was 836.9 maybe that is close enough. Either way, if we get the Obama bounce I think it will be mostly Tuesday/Wednesday.

Good luck to all, being fully in stocks is kind of scary.:worried: This will be a quick one.

 

[justbizness45]

Not good for the market this morning:

"WASHINGTON (AP) -- New claims for jobless benefits increased more than expected last week, reflecting continued weakness in the labor market in the new year that is not expected to ease anytime soon."


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/New-jobless-claims-increase-apf-14069467.html

 

[JTH]

With the market crashing so hard today I went 50C/50S. My move to F yesterday made me a little green (more than G) today. I am a whopping +.10 for the month. Movin up the tracker now.....:laugh:

Wish I had made my first IFT into F like I normally do At any rate, it looks to be a great start for bonds this year, perhaps there will still be more upside in them, by the time Mr. Long gives my another 2 IFTs.

 

[justbizness45]

Wish I had made my first IFT into F like I normally do At any rate, it looks to be a great start for bonds this year, perhaps there will still be more upside in them, by the time Mr. Long gives my another 2 IFTs.

Yeah, kicking myself for two reasons. I didn't leave anything in F when I moved to stocks so I can't poach it up with <1% IFTs when I bail from stocks.:embarrest: I've used my 2 IFTs for the month. Second I knew S fund would probably lead and I didn't load it up like I should have. Still 50C/50S. Today was very interesting with surprising strength but may have been the big boys positioning for OE tomorrow. Picked up a little more from today's action. Good luck tomorrow!!

 

[justbizness45]

Not that it really means all that much but futures are up strong this morning. Have a great day folks!!

 

[justbizness45]

I was going to pull the trigger this morning and get out of the market and then it started going down so I held off and decided to wait a little bit. About that time the boss called a meeting. So I missed the cutoff. Dabnabit noon cutoff!!! I am still 50C/50S. Tracker has me at +1.78 for the month so I have achieved my goal, now I just have to keep it. :toung: Wish I had gotten out today but I will be out COB Tuesday unless we have a big down day.

 

[justbizness45]

Hello everyone, I finally completed my analysis (if you want to call it that)of SB's intriguing <1% IFT discovery. So here it is:

I ran several 2 week scenarios for performing <1% IFTs from different periods throughout the year and the following are my findings. Most of this has already been posted by SB on his page. All my calcs were done using C fund data for stock trends.

Disclaimer: Remember folks I picked the periods from past history so the market did what I wanted. I am not a financial consultant or broker or any other financial professional. These are my interpretations of the results provided to you should you decide to experiment at your own risk!!

Downward trend market: I used initial allocations of 50% C, 15%C and 5%C. In all 3 senarios I performed <1% IFTs on down days to maintain allocation percentage which DCAs increasing shares. Up days no IFT was performed. The goal was to attempt to dollar cost average intial purchase price to break even sooner on the rebound.

The 50% and 15% scenarios did not reduce dollar cost significantly to warrant the moves. If you are expecting the market to go down G or F ruled in the past year. The 5% scenario did reduce the DCA significantly but I can’t come up with a real chain of events to make it useful. Going to G makes more sense to me.

I also ran some scenarios selling profits back to G on up days back to the initial contribution. While it did reduce to loss amount it was not significant enough to warrant staying in stocks. JMO folks.

Bottom line <1% IFTs into stocks is not real useful during a downward trend market.

<1% IFTs into F fund was 70% positive results. So in the future of this bear market, my first IFT of the month is going to have a 5 percent into F. What worked best was a combination. Down days IFT back to the previous percentage . Up days hold and the following day go up to the next percentage. Last day of the month sell back down to the original percentage or all so you pocket the profits in G. Lady has already had some success in this area but I’m not sure what her strategy was.

Upward trend market:

I used similar strategy as with the F fund. Accumulating shares on down days and moving up percentage following up days which also accululates shares. You would only use this if you found yourself in a rally period and no IFTs left. If you are stuck, <1% IFTs can help you beat the G fund. My scenarios beat G about 60% of the time and F about 40% with 5% in C. Any less than that and the dollar value for % change wasn't enough to beat G consistently. That being said I was running these models using past performance so I knew the numbers would go up. In real life you will have to risk a downtrend and possible loss.

That's it!! If I missed anything just ask. JB45
I will also post this on SB's thread.

 

[XL-entLady]

.... <1% IFTs into F fund was 70% positive results. So in the future of this bear market, my first IFT of the month is going to have a 5 percent into F. What worked best was a combination. Down days IFT back to the previous percentage . Up days hold and the following day go up to the next percentage. Last day of the month sell back down to the original percentage or all so you pocket the profits in G. Lady has already had some success in this area but I’m not sure what her strategy was.

First of all, excellent information, JB45! Kudos on the great analysis and explanation!

My strategy was exactly as you explained, except that I didn't sell back down to the original percentage to lock in profits. Probably should have too!

For what it's worth, I've decided that even when I sell out of a fund I'm leaving at least 2% in FCSI and 1% in each of the L funds. That allows me the maximum choices for <1% moves with the minimum exposure, based on the tests I've run and my actual experience of the last little while.

Lady

 

[justbizness45]

The networks and talking heads are starting to call for transparancy. They should have been asking months ago. Here are a couple vids with P. Schiff on Kudlow&Co. Good discussion:

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=cmx2tmZV_Sk Part 1

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=rGkvHADl08I Part 2